Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.78 · now $10.78 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LYEL has typically landed between $7.20 and $15.75 — a range of −33.2% to +46.1% from the issuance price $10.78.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,296 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-06-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.78) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where LYEL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.78 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.78 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.26 (-4.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.52–$12
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.2–$15.75
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,296 windows spanning 2021-06-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-05-24 | −52.7% | −52.7% | +0.0% |
| 2024-05-28 | −49.8% | −52.4% | +0.7% |
| 2024-11-18 | −46.4% | −46.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-11-20 | +114.4% | +0.0% | +114.4% |
| 2025-11-12 | +95.5% | −4.0% | +95.5% |
| 2025-11-21 | +95.1% | +0.0% | +95.3% |
1,296 overlapping windows · 2021-06-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- June 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: LYL273 for Patients With Relapsed or Refractory mCRC (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2028-12-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: Study of Rondecabtagene Autoleucel in Aggressive Large B-Cell Lymphoma (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Investigate Ronde-cel Versus Investigator's Choice CD19 CAR T-Cell Therapy (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
0%
−13.6%
n=5
Feb
60%
+14.6%
n=5
Mar
20%
−17.0%
n=5
Apr
20%
−5.7%
n=5
May
40%
+9.0%
n=5
Jun
40%
−1.6%
n=5
Jul
33%
+0.4%
n=6
Aug
50%
+1.1%
n=6
Sep
33%
−3.1%
n=6
Oct
40%
−8.1%
n=5
Nov
40%
−2.6%
n=5
Dec
40%
−5.7%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Shook David | officer | Sale | 500 @ $12.70 | $6K | −2.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,423 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-21 | Seely Lynn | director | Sale | 9,589 @ $15.54 | $149K | −13.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 63,899 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Lee Gary K. | officer | Sale | 1,457 @ $15.54 | $23K | −8.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 16,220 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Hill Stephen J. | officer | Sale | 989 @ $15.54 | $15K | −5.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 16,816 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Bulis Veronica Sanchez | officer | Sale | 621 @ $14.34 | $9K | −4.0% of holding | −8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,799 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Seely Lynn | director | Sale | 390 @ $14.34 | $6K | −0.5% of holding | −8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 73,488 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Lee Gary K. | officer | Sale | 131 @ $14.34 | $2K | −0.7% of holding | −8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,677 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Hill Stephen J. | officer | Sale | 89 @ $14.34 | $1K | −0.5% of holding | −8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,805 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | Innovative Cellular Therapeutics Holdings Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 10 @ $13.70 | $137 | −0.0% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,857,480 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Innovative Cellular Therapeutics Holdings Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 10 @ $13.73 | $137 | −0.0% of holding | −3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,857,490 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Shook David | officer | Sale | 1,977 @ $12.64 | $25K | −8.6% of holding | +4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,923 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Seely Lynn | director | Sale | 388 @ $18.91 | $7K | −0.5% of holding | −29.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 73,878 | Form 4 · filed 35 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Bulis Veronica Sanchez | officer | Sale | 217 @ $18.91 | $4K | −1.4% of holding | −29.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,420 | Form 4 · filed 35 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Lee Gary K. | officer | Sale | 130 @ $18.92 | $2K | −0.7% of holding | −29.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,808 | Form 4 · filed 35 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Hill Stephen J. | officer | Sale | 89 @ $18.92 | $2K | −0.5% of holding | −29.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,894 | Form 4 · filed 35 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | ARCH Venture Partners IX, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 488,090 @ $25.61 | $12.5M | +52.0% of holding | −1.3% | −51.2% | 1,426,528 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | ARCH Venture Fund XIII, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 488,090 @ $25.61 | $12.5M | +52.0% of holding | −1.3% | −51.2% | 1,426,528 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Seely Lynn | director | Sale | 7,455 @ $23.39 | $174K | −9.1% of holding | −8.4% | −56.6% | 74,266 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Lee Gary K. | officer | Sale | 1,671 @ $23.39 | $39K | −9.0% of holding | −8.4% | −56.6% | 16,938 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Hill Stephen J. | officer | Sale | 1,236 @ $23.39 | $29K | −6.5% of holding | −8.4% | −56.6% | 17,795 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Seely Lynn | director | Sale | 438 @ $23.12 | $10K | −0.5% of holding | +8.3% | −52.4% | 81,721 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Bulis Veronica Sanchez | officer | Sale | 254 @ $23.12 | $6K | −1.6% of holding | +8.3% | −52.4% | 15,637 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Lee Gary K. | officer | Sale | 147 @ $23.12 | $3K | −0.8% of holding | +8.3% | −52.4% | 18,609 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Hill Stephen J. | officer | Sale | 109 @ $23.12 | $3K | −0.6% of holding | +8.3% | −52.4% | 19,031 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-30 | Bulis Veronica Sanchez | officer | Sale | 936 @ $32.32 | $30K | −11.6% of holding | −24.7% | −64.5% | 7,141 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-24 | Bulis Veronica Sanchez | officer | Sale | 1,136 @ $38.67 | $44K | −12.3% of holding | −35.2% | −74.9% | 8,077 | Form 4 · filed 13 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Seely Lynn | director | Sale | 412 @ $16.11 | $7K | −0.6% of holding | +76.0% | −0.7% | 67,159 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Bulis Veronica Sanchez | officer | Sale | 239 @ $16.10 | $4K | −2.5% of holding | +76.0% | −0.7% | 9,213 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Lee Gary K. | officer | Sale | 138 @ $16.16 | $2K | −0.9% of holding | +76.0% | −0.7% | 15,366 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Hill Stephen J. | officer | Sale | 95 @ $16.12 | $2K | −0.6% of holding | +76.0% | −0.7% | 15,750 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | Seely Lynn | director | Sale | 7,257 @ $10.54 | $77K | −9.7% of holding | +18.4% | +105.3% | 67,571 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | Newton Charles W. | director | Sale | 1,453 @ $10.54 | $15K | −8.7% of holding | +18.4% | +105.3% | 15,306 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | Lee Gary K. | officer | Sale | 1,453 @ $10.54 | $15K | −8.6% of holding | +18.4% | +105.3% | 15,504 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | Hill Stephen J. | officer | Sale | 1,004 @ $10.54 | $11K | −6.0% of holding | +18.4% | +105.3% | 15,845 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Seely Lynn | director | Sale | 406 @ $10.34 | $4K | −1.2% of holding | +23.5% | +122.0% | 34,828 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Lee Gary K. | officer | Sale | 136 @ $10.34 | $1K | −1.5% of holding | +23.5% | +122.0% | 8,957 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Newton Charles W. | director | Sale | 136 @ $10.34 | $1K | −1.5% of holding | +23.5% | +122.0% | 8,759 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Hill Stephen J. | officer | Sale | 94 @ $10.34 | $972 | −1.1% of holding | +23.5% | +122.0% | 8,849 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Seely Lynn | director | Sale | 391 @ $10.53 | $4K | −1.1% of holding | +21.0% | +114.6% | 35,234 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Lee Gary K. | officer | Sale | 131 @ $10.53 | $1K | −1.4% of holding | +21.0% | +114.6% | 9,093 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Newton Charles W. | director | Sale | 131 @ $10.53 | $1K | −1.5% of holding | +21.0% | +114.6% | 8,895 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Hill Stephen J. | officer | Sale | 91 @ $10.53 | $958 | −1.0% of holding | +21.0% | +114.6% | 8,943 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-31 | BRAWLEY OTIS W | director | Purchase | 35,640 @ $0.56 | $20K | ownership Δ n/a | −10.8% | +33.6% | 35,640 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-21 | Ramachandra Sumant | director | Purchase | 200,000 @ $0.58 | $115K | ownership Δ n/a | −14.0% | −4.4% | 200,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Newton Charles W. | director | Purchase | 200,000 @ $0.56 | $112K | ownership Δ n/a | −6.3% | +2.1% | 200,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Seely Lynn | director | Purchase | 175,000 @ $0.61 | $106K | +32.6% of holding | −20.2% | −5.1% | 712,500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Klausner Richard | director | Purchase | 158,000 @ $0.60 | $95K | +23.1% of holding | −20.2% | −5.1% | 843,365 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
54 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Aguirre Jarrad Mattieu | officer | Award / grant | 47,500 | 47,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Innovative Cellular Therapeutics Holdings Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 44,000 | 2,774,980 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Innovative Cellular Therapeutics Holdings Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 38,500 | 2,818,980 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Innovative Cellular Therapeutics Holdings Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 76,000 | 2,857,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Innovative Cellular Therapeutics Holdings Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 66,500 | 2,933,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Ramachandra Sumant | director | Award / grant | 9,250 | 9,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Bachleda Mark | director | Award / grant | 9,250 | 9,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | FRIEDMAN CATHY | director | Award / grant | 9,250 | 9,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Klausner Richard | director | Award / grant | 9,250 | 9,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | RIEFLIN WILLIAM JL | director | Award / grant | 9,250 | 9,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | NABEL ELIZABETH G | director | Award / grant | 9,250 | 9,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | BRAWLEY OTIS W | director | Award / grant | 9,250 | 9,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Shah Smital | officer | Award / grant | 140,000 | 140,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Meltz Mark A | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Hill Stephen J. | officer | Award / grant | 65,000 | 65,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Bulis Veronica Sanchez | officer | Award / grant | 8,750 | 15,891 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Lee Gary K. | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Seely Lynn | director | Award / grant | 155,000 | 155,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Shook David | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Hill Stephen J. | officer | Award / grant | 4,000 | 19,140 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Seely Lynn | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 82,159 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Lee Gary K. | officer | Award / grant | 4,000 | 18,756 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-27 | Lee Gary K. | officer | Award / grant | 68,000 | 68,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-27 | Hill Stephen J. | officer | Award / grant | 75,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-27 | Seely Lynn | director | Award / grant | 175,000 | 175,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Newton Charles W. | director | Award / grant | 8,000 | 16,759 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Hill Stephen J. | officer | Award / grant | 8,000 | 16,849 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Seely Lynn | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 74,828 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Lee Gary K. | officer | Award / grant | 8,000 | 16,957 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-09 | Shook David | officer | Award / grant | 43,750 | 43,750 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-09 | Bachleda Mark | director | Award / grant | 13,000 | 13,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-09 | Meltz Mark A | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-09 | Shook David | officer | Award / grant | 21,900 | 21,900 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | FRIEDMAN CATHY | director | Award / grant | 130,000 | 130,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | NABEL ELIZABETH G | director | Award / grant | 130,000 | 130,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | BRAWLEY OTIS W | director | Award / grant | 130,000 | 130,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | RIEFLIN WILLIAM JL | director | Award / grant | 130,000 | 130,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Klausner Richard | director | Award / grant | 130,000 | 130,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Ramachandra Sumant | director | Award / grant | 130,000 | 130,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-10 | Hill Stephen J. | officer | Award / grant | 112,500 | 172,899 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.