LYBLyondellBasell Industries N.V.Basic Materials · Chemicals - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $64.90 · now $64.90 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LYB has typically landed between $56.46 and $74.01 — a range of −13.0% to +14.0% from the issuance price $64.90.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,101 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-04-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($64.90) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where LYB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $64.9 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$56.46worst · -13.0%$74.01best · +14.0%
  • now $64.9 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $65.09 (+0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $61.98–$68.2
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $56.46–$74.01
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,101 windows spanning 2010-04-28 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-13−57.6%−57.6%+0.0%
2020-02-21−50.4%−57.3%+0.0%
2020-02-18−49.4%−56.4%+2.5%
3 best
2020-03-16+51.0%+0.0%+68.8%
2020-05-06+45.8%+0.0%+45.8%
2026-02-27+45.0%+0.0%+45.0%

4,101 overlapping windows · 2010-04-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$19.5B
market cap
$-2.49
EPS (TTM)
—
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-31
next earnings
Revenue$30.2B
'20'25
Net income−$743M
'20'25
Free cash flow$384M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr-2.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-7.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.58
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $64.90$59.68$93.32
  • DCF (intrinsic)$83.06
  • Analyst target · range $62.00–$91.00$73.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$64.90

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
63%
+4.3%
n=16
Feb
63%
+3.1%
n=16
Mar
69%
+2.4%
n=16
Apr
50%
+0.9%
n=16
May
35%
−1.2%
n=17
Jun
41%
−2.3%
n=17
Jul
76%
+3.3%
n=17
Aug
71%
+1.5%
n=17
Sep
41%
−1.0%
n=17
Oct
50%
+1.0%
n=16
Nov
75%
+5.3%
n=16
Dec
50%
+0.9%
n=16

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$82$402026-05-13: 1 insider sale, $742K — Kaplan Jeffrey A2026-03-09: 6 insider sales, $26.3M — AI INVESTMENTS HOLDINGS LLC …2025-11-12: 1 insider purchase, $247K — Foley Kimberly A2025-08-15: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Vanacker Peter Z. E.2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $1.1M2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $247K2026-03: 6 open-market sales, $26.3M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $742K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Kaplan Jeffrey A — Sale on 2026-05-13, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner AI INVESTMENTS HOLDINGS LLC — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner AI INVESTMENTS HOLDINGS LLC — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner AI INVESTMENTS HOLDINGS LLC — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner AI INVESTMENTS HOLDINGS LLC — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner AI INVESTMENTS HOLDINGS LLC — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner AI INVESTMENTS HOLDINGS LLC — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Foley Kimberly A — Purchase on 2025-11-12, filed same daydirector Vanacker Peter Z. E. — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-13Kaplan Jeffrey AofficerSale10,000 @ $74.16$742K−9.4% of holding−11.4%not yet — horizon still open96,674Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09AI INVESTMENTS HOLDINGS LLCtenPercentOwnerSale189,277 @ $68.13$12.9M−3.4% of holding+11.1%−15.9%5,385,510Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09AI INVESTMENTS HOLDINGS LLCtenPercentOwnerSale114,592 @ $68.90$7.9M−2.1% of holding+11.1%−15.9%5,270,918Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09AI INVESTMENTS HOLDINGS LLCtenPercentOwnerSale80,679 @ $67.03$5.4M−1.4% of holding+11.1%−15.9%5,574,787Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09AI INVESTMENTS HOLDINGS LLCtenPercentOwnerSale414 @ $68.13$28K−0.1% of holding+11.1%−15.9%765,405Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09AI INVESTMENTS HOLDINGS LLCtenPercentOwnerSale251 @ $68.90$17K−0.0% of holding+11.1%−15.9%765,154Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09AI INVESTMENTS HOLDINGS LLCtenPercentOwnerSale177 @ $67.03$12K−0.0% of holding+11.1%−15.9%765,819Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-12Foley Kimberly AofficerPurchase5,661 @ $43.56$247K+9.1% of holding+5.7%+71.7%67,688Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-15Vanacker Peter Z. E.directorSale20,000 @ $53.57$1.1M−11.1% of holding−1.6%+3.7%160,351Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-13ACCESS INDUSTRIES, LLCtenPercentOwnerPurchase30 @ $1196560.78$35.9Mownership Δ n/a−1.0%−37.0%30Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-05Hanley Michael SeandirectorPurchase3,500 @ $57.01$200K+21.8% of holding−3.6%−35.6%19,528Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-12Hanley Michael SeandirectorPurchase3,750 @ $72.05$270K+30.5% of holding−18.9%−37.7%16,028Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-13Buchanan Robin W.T.directorPurchase5,000 @ $76.06$380K+38.0% of holding+3.0%−18.7%18,175Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

266 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-30KAMSKY VIRGINIA AdirectorWithheld for tax10010,283Form 4
2026-06-30Karlin Bridget EdirectorWithheld for tax737,247Form 4
2026-06-30KAMSKY VIRGINIA AdirectorAward / grant56110,383Form 4
2026-06-30Karlin Bridget EdirectorAward / grant6157,320Form 4
2026-05-22Benet Lincoln EdirectorWithheld for tax1,41013,381Form 4
2026-05-22Buchanan Robin W.T.directorWithheld for tax1,24722,165Form 4
2026-05-22Dudley Robert W.directorWithheld for tax7089,820Form 4
2026-05-22Manifold Albert JudedirectorWithheld for tax68914,905Form 4
2026-05-22Griffin Rita EdirectorWithheld for tax6397,354Form 4
2026-05-22KAMSKY VIRGINIA AdirectorWithheld for tax5939,822Form 4
2026-05-22AIGRAIN JACQUESdirectorWithheld for tax57537,534Form 4
2026-05-22FARLEY CLAIRE SdirectorWithheld for tax56526,341Form 4
2026-05-22Hanley Michael SeandirectorWithheld for tax54023,895Form 4
2026-05-22CHASE ANTHONY RdirectorWithheld for tax54013,603Form 4
2026-05-22Karlin Bridget EdirectorWithheld for tax5216,705Form 4
2026-05-21FARLEY CLAIRE SdirectorAward / grant2,32126,906Form 4
2026-05-21AIGRAIN JACQUESdirectorAward / grant4,43738,109Form 4
2026-05-21Benet Lincoln EdirectorAward / grant2,32114,791Form 4
2026-05-21Buchanan Robin W.T.directorAward / grant2,32123,412Form 4
2026-05-21CHASE ANTHONY RdirectorAward / grant2,32114,143Form 4
2026-05-21Dudley Robert W.directorAward / grant2,32110,528Form 4
2026-05-21Griffin Rita EdirectorAward / grant2,3217,993Form 4
2026-05-21Hanley Michael SeandirectorAward / grant2,32124,435Form 4
2026-05-21KAMSKY VIRGINIA AdirectorAward / grant2,32110,415Form 4
2026-05-21Karlin Bridget EdirectorAward / grant2,3217,226Form 4
2026-05-21Manifold Albert JudedirectorAward / grant2,32115,594Form 4
2026-04-15Izquierdo Sabido AgustinofficerWithheld for tax4533,499Form 4
2026-04-15Hayes Matthew DofficerWithheld for tax408,970Form 4
2026-03-31KAMSKY VIRGINIA AdirectorWithheld for tax1428,094Form 4
2026-03-31Karlin Bridget EdirectorWithheld for tax1114,905Form 4
2026-03-31KAMSKY VIRGINIA AdirectorAward / grant6468,236Form 4
2026-03-31Karlin Bridget EdirectorAward / grant7085,016Form 4
2026-03-09AI INVESTMENTS HOLDINGS LLCtenPercentOwnerGift464,6101,000,000Form 4
2026-02-28Seward James MalcolmofficerAward / grant12,20945,731Form 4
2026-02-28Vanacker Peter Z. E.directorAward / grant98,549248,554Form 4
2026-02-28Hayes Matthew DofficerAward / grant4,0328,868Form 4
2026-02-28Conley Trisha LofficerAward / grant15,06833,766Form 4
2026-02-28van der Laan YvonneofficerAward / grant12,47524,733Form 4
2026-02-28Campbell Tracey DofficerAward / grant5,28218,360Form 4
2026-02-28Rhenman TorkelofficerAward / grant22,552116,836Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-02-132026-01-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-10-072025-09-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-09$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-08-132025-06-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.