LXFR · TickerCove

LXFRLuxfer Holdings PLCIndustrials · Industrial - Machineryas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $17.21 · now $17.21 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LXFR has typically landed between $14.56 and $20.37 — a range of −15.4% to +18.3% from the issuance price $17.21.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,486 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-10-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($17.21) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$17.21 · 77% of range

$11.3 low$18.94 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.2%

typical move · IQR 16.0%

−15.4%worst (p90)+18.3%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where LXFR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $17.21 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $17.21 (+0.0%)
typical $17.25 (+0.2%)
middle 50% $15.87–$18.63
90% range $14.56–$20.37

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,486 windows spanning 2012-10-03 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2023-10-10	−38.1%	−38.1%	+0.0%
2023-10-09	−36.1%	−37.4%	+0.6%
2023-10-02	−35.8%	−35.8%	+3.1%
3 best
2024-02-22	+44.2%	+0.0%	+44.2%
2019-03-06	+42.9%	+0.0%	+43.3%
2024-02-23	+42.0%	−0.1%	+43.8%

3,486 overlapping windows · 2012-10-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

64%

+1.5%

n=14

Feb

50%

−0.2%

n=14

Mar

50%

+3.8%

n=14

Apr

43%

+2.9%

n=14

May

64%

+6.2%

n=14

Jun

43%

−1.4%

n=14

Jul

57%

−0.5%

n=14

Aug

50%

+0.1%

n=14

Sep

43%

−2.3%

n=14

Oct

54%

−2.2%

n=13

Nov

57%

+3.8%

n=14

Dec

57%

+1.2%

n=14

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-11	MULLEN PATRICK K	director	Sale	5,323 @ $15.05	$80K	−11.2% of holding	−6.4%	not yet — horizon still open	42,145	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-11	Snowdon Clive	director	Sale	4,015 @ $15.05	$60K	−13.0% of holding	−6.4%	not yet — horizon still open	26,841	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-11	Hipple Richard J	director	Sale	4,010 @ $15.05	$60K	−10.9% of holding	−6.4%	not yet — horizon still open	32,920	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-11	Stein Sylvia Ann	director	Sale	4,010 @ $15.05	$60K	−21.3% of holding	−6.4%	not yet — horizon still open	14,844	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-11	Trimberger Lisa G	director	Sale	4,010 @ $15.05	$60K	−16.2% of holding	−6.4%	not yet — horizon still open	20,801	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-09	Webster Stephen	officer	Sale	4,244 @ $11.83	$50K	−13.7% of holding	−3.9%	−5.4%	26,662	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-06	Stein Sylvia Ann	director	Sale	4,108 @ $10.02	$41K	−29.3% of holding	+1.4%	−3.9%	9,901	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-05	MULLEN PATRICK K	director	Sale	5,463 @ $10.02	$55K	−13.3% of holding	+3.9%	−0.7%	35,617	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-06-05	Snowdon Clive	director	Sale	4,120 @ $10.02	$41K	−15.8% of holding	+3.9%	−0.7%	21,903	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-06-05	Trimberger Lisa G	director	Sale	4,108 @ $10.02	$41K	−20.6% of holding	+3.9%	−0.7%	15,858	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-06-05	Hipple Richard J	director	Sale	4,108 @ $10.02	$41K	−20.6% of holding	+3.9%	−0.7%	15,803	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

289 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-11	MULLEN PATRICK K	director	Award / grant	7,709	7,709	Form 4
2026-06-11	Snowdon Clive	director	Option exercise	8,953	30,856	Form 4
2026-06-11	Snowdon Clive	director	Award / grant	5,825	5,825	Form 4
2026-06-11	Stein Sylvia Ann	director	Option exercise	8,953	18,854	Form 4
2026-06-11	Stein Sylvia Ann	director	Option exercise	8,953	0	Form 4
2026-06-11	Stein Sylvia Ann	director	Award / grant	6,681	6,681	Form 4
2026-06-11	Trimberger Lisa G	director	Option exercise	8,953	24,811	Form 4
2026-06-11	Snowdon Clive	director	Option exercise	8,953	0	Form 4
2026-06-11	Hipple Richard J	director	Option exercise	8,953	0	Form 4
2026-06-11	Hipple Richard J	director	Award / grant	6,681	6,681	Form 4
2026-06-11	MULLEN PATRICK K	director	Option exercise	11,851	47,468	Form 4
2026-06-11	MULLEN PATRICK K	director	Option exercise	11,851	0	Form 4
2026-06-11	Snowdon Clive	director	Option exercise	8,953	0	Form 4
2026-06-11	Snowdon Clive	director	Award / grant	5,825	5,825	Form 4
2026-06-11	Stein Sylvia Ann	director	Option exercise	8,953	18,854	Form 4
2026-06-11	Stein Sylvia Ann	director	Option exercise	8,953	0	Form 4
2026-06-11	Stein Sylvia Ann	director	Award / grant	6,681	6,681	Form 4
2026-06-11	Trimberger Lisa G	director	Option exercise	8,953	24,811	Form 4
2026-06-11	Trimberger Lisa G	director	Option exercise	8,953	0	Form 4
2026-06-11	Trimberger Lisa G	director	Award / grant	6,681	6,681	Form 4
2026-06-11	Watson Stewart Robert	director	Award / grant	10,341	10,341	Form 4
2026-06-11	Hipple Richard J	director	Option exercise	8,953	36,930	Form 4
2026-06-11	Trimberger Lisa G	director	Option exercise	8,953	0	Form 4
2026-06-11	Trimberger Lisa G	director	Award / grant	6,681	6,681	Form 4
2026-06-11	Hipple Richard J	director	Option exercise	8,953	36,930	Form 4
2026-06-11	Hipple Richard J	director	Option exercise	8,953	0	Form 4
2026-06-11	Hipple Richard J	director	Award / grant	6,681	6,681	Form 4
2026-06-11	Watson Stewart Robert	director	Award / grant	10,341	10,341	Form 4
2026-06-11	MULLEN PATRICK K	director	Option exercise	11,851	47,468	Form 4
2026-06-11	MULLEN PATRICK K	director	Option exercise	11,851	0	Form 4
2026-06-11	MULLEN PATRICK K	director	Award / grant	7,709	7,709	Form 4
2026-06-11	Snowdon Clive	director	Option exercise	8,953	30,856	Form 4
2026-05-06	Butcher Andrew	director	Other acquisition	853	267,872	Form 4
2026-03-20	Butcher Andrew	director	Withheld for tax	11,460	258,833	Form 4
2026-03-20	Butcher Andrew	director	Withheld for tax	7,347	264,590	Form 4
2026-03-20	Butcher Andrew	director	Withheld for tax	4,648	249,851	Form 4
2026-03-20	MEAD HOWARD IOAN	officer	Withheld for tax	693	19,583	Form 4
2026-03-20	Moorefield Jeffrey C.	officer	Withheld for tax	626	20,170	Form 4
2026-03-20	MEAD HOWARD IOAN	officer	Withheld for tax	444	20,165	Form 4
2026-03-20	Moorefield Jeffrey C.	officer	Withheld for tax	401	20,759	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i