Issued 2026-09-16 at $24.42 · now $24.42 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LWAY has typically landed between $19.78 and $33.96 — a range of −19.0% to +39.1% from the issuance price $24.42.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($24.42) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where LWAY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $24.42 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $24.42 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $24.29 (-0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $22.02–$26.55
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $19.78–$33.96
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-05-13 | −53.1% | −53.1% | +0.0% |
| 2024-05-10 | −52.4% | −52.8% | +0.0% |
| 2024-05-09 | −52.3% | −53.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-07-23 | +118.8% | +0.0% | +118.8% |
| 2024-03-11 | +98.3% | −0.8% | +99.9% |
| 2024-08-06 | +93.6% | +0.0% | +93.6% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
35%
+1.3%
n=20
Feb
50%
−0.0%
n=20
Mar
65%
+4.2%
n=20
Apr
30%
+0.7%
n=20
May
45%
+1.6%
n=20
Jun
55%
+5.4%
n=20
Jul
55%
+1.0%
n=20
Aug
40%
+8.2%
n=20
Sep
50%
−0.6%
n=20
Oct
55%
+2.1%
n=20
Nov
45%
−1.5%
n=20
Dec
50%
−2.2%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | SMOLYANSKY JULIE | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $25.26 | $51K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,214,095 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-17 | Divisadero Street Capital Management, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 35,952 @ $24.78 | $891K | +1.6% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,348,108 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 45,038 @ $25.82 | $1.2M | −4.8% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 894,824 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 29,931 @ $24.89 | $745K | −3.1% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 939,862 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | Divisadero Street Capital Management, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 15,000 @ $24.69 | $370K | +0.7% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,312,156 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 31 @ $26.50 | $822 | −0.0% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 894,793 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-13 | Divisadero Street Capital Management, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 195,616 @ $24.87 | $4.9M | +9.3% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,297,156 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 35,000 @ $28.74 | $1.0M | −3.5% of holding | −14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 969,793 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | SMOLYANSKY LUDMILA | other | Sale | 60,000 @ $30.55 | $1.8M | −9.9% of holding | −16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 547,207 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | SMOLYANSKY LUDMILA | other | Sale | 40,000 @ $29.46 | $1.2M | −7.3% of holding | −16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 507,207 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 42,263 @ $32.32 | $1.4M | −4.0% of holding | −24.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,004,793 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 24,653 @ $31.51 | $777K | −2.3% of holding | −24.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,047,056 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 39,098 @ $29.41 | $1.1M | −3.5% of holding | −2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,071,709 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 7,984 @ $29.79 | $238K | −0.7% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,110,807 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 50,000 @ $29.56 | $1.5M | −5.5% of holding | +4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 852,642 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 14,542 @ $30.12 | $438K | +1.3% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,168,791 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 55,794 @ $29.87 | $1.7M | −5.8% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 902,642 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 55,754 @ $28.64 | $1.6M | −5.5% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 958,436 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | SMOLYANSKY LUDMILA | other | Sale | 45,616 @ $29.65 | $1.4M | −7.0% of holding | −0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 607,207 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | SMOLYANSKY LUDMILA | other | Sale | 40,000 @ $30.12 | $1.2M | −5.8% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 652,823 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 36,659 @ $29.82 | $1.1M | −3.5% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,015,983 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,793 @ $30.52 | $55K | −0.2% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,014,190 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 50,000 @ $26.20 | $1.3M | −4.1% of holding | +14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,183,333 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-10 | SMOLYANSKY LUDMILA | other | Sale | 20,000 @ $24.02 | $480K | −2.8% of holding | +29.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 692,823 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Zolezzi William | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 33,174 @ $25.27 | $838K | +1.6% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,101,540 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Divisadero Street Capital Management, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 33,174 @ $25.27 | $838K | +1.6% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,101,540 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | SMOLYANSKY LUDMILA | other | Sale | 20,000 @ $24.64 | $493K | −2.7% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 712,823 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 12,612 @ $25.46 | $321K | −1.2% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,052,642 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 11,388 @ $24.21 | $276K | −1.1% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,065,254 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Danone S.A. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,454,756 @ $19.50 | $67.4M | −100.0% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Divisadero Street Capital Management, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 95,371 @ $25.24 | $2.4M | +4.9% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,031,866 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Zolezzi William | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 95,371 @ $25.24 | $2.4M | +4.9% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,031,866 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Divisadero Street Capital Management, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 35,000 @ $26.33 | $921K | +1.7% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,068,366 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Zolezzi William | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 35,000 @ $26.33 | $921K | +1.7% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,068,366 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 22,818 @ $25.25 | $576K | −2.1% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,078,824 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,182 @ $26.28 | $57K | −0.2% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,076,642 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Divisadero Street Capital Management, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,500 @ $22.98 | $34K | +0.1% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,033,366 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Zolezzi William | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,500 @ $22.98 | $34K | +0.1% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,033,366 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | SMOLYANSKY LUDMILA | other | Sale | 15,000 @ $26.50 | $398K | −2.0% of holding | −9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 732,823 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 14,353 @ $17.77 | $255K | −1.3% of holding | +42.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,101,642 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-18 | SMOLYANSKY LUDMILA | other | Sale | 10,000 @ $18.74 | $187K | −1.3% of holding | +31.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 747,823 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 22,313 @ $20.10 | $448K | −2.0% of holding | +26.8% | +14.0% | 1,115,995 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,334 @ $20.60 | $275K | −1.2% of holding | +13.8% | +4.3% | 1,138,308 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | SMOLYANSKY LUDMILA | other | Sale | 16,431 @ $23.97 | $394K | −2.1% of holding | −8.3% | +16.5% | 767,823 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | SMOLYANSKY LUDMILA | other | Sale | 10,000 @ $25.15 | $252K | −1.3% of holding | −8.3% | +16.5% | 757,823 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | SMOLYANSKY LUDMILA | other | Sale | 20,000 @ $23.17 | $463K | −2.5% of holding | −3.0% | −0.3% | 784,254 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | SMOLYANSKY LUDMILA | other | Sale | 13,569 @ $23.41 | $318K | −1.7% of holding | −4.7% | −1.9% | 804,254 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | SMOLYANSKY LUDMILA | other | Sale | 15,000 @ $23.56 | $353K | −1.8% of holding | −4.5% | −5.1% | 817,823 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | SMOLYANSKY LUDMILA | other | Sale | 10,000 @ $26.44 | $264K | −1.2% of holding | −7.8% | −12.6% | 832,823 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-07 | SMOLYANSKY LUDMILA | other | Sale | 5,000 @ $26.32 | $132K | −0.6% of holding | −5.6% | −13.2% | 842,823 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 58,830 @ $26.07 | $1.5M | −4.9% of holding | −10.0% | −15.3% | 1,151,642 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 24,813 @ $25.52 | $633K | −2.0% of holding | −10.0% | −15.3% | 1,210,472 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-24 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 10,000 @ $26.69 | $267K | −0.8% of holding | −1.5% | −28.7% | 1,235,285 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-23 | SMOLYANSKY EDWARD | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 6,357 @ $26.53 | $169K | −0.5% of holding | +1.0% | −28.7% | 1,245,285 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-27 | SCHER JASON SCOTT | director | Sale | 16,366 @ $24.24 | $397K | −100.0% of holding | +0.5% | −16.8% | 1 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-26 | SCHER JASON SCOTT | director | Sale | 8,200 @ $24.22 | $199K | −33.4% of holding | +0.5% | −15.8% | 16,367 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | SIKAR POL | director | Sale | 800 @ $22.80 | $18K | −3.4% of holding | +5.4% | −16.2% | 22,858 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-21 | SIKAR POL | director | Sale | 200 @ $22.83 | $5K | −0.8% of holding | +6.1% | −14.8% | 23,658 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | SIKAR POL | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $22.35 | $67K | −11.2% of holding | +8.7% | −15.1% | 23,858 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | SMOLYANSKY JULIE | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $22.07 | $1.1M | −2.3% of holding | +11.3% | −14.1% | 2,132,483 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
191 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | McWhorter Dorri | director | Option exercise | 1,550 | 28,842 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Dalto Juan Carlos | director | Option exercise | 1,550 | 10,771 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Dalto Juan Carlos | director | Option exercise | 1,550 | 10,771 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | SCHER JASON SCOTT | director | Option exercise | 1,550 | 84,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Dalto Juan Carlos | director | Option exercise | 1,550 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Dalto Juan Carlos | director | Option exercise | 1,550 | 10,771 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | SCHER JASON SCOTT | director | Option exercise | 1,550 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | SCHER JASON SCOTT | director | Option exercise | 1,550 | 84,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | SCHER JASON SCOTT | director | Option exercise | 1,550 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | SCHER JASON SCOTT | director | Option exercise | 1,550 | 84,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | McWhorter Dorri | director | Option exercise | 1,550 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Dalto Juan Carlos | director | Option exercise | 1,550 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Dalto Juan Carlos | director | Option exercise | 1,550 | 10,771 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | McWhorter Dorri | director | Option exercise | 1,550 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | McWhorter Dorri | director | Option exercise | 1,550 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Dalto Juan Carlos | director | Option exercise | 1,550 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Dalto Juan Carlos | director | Option exercise | 1,550 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | SCHER JASON SCOTT | director | Option exercise | 1,550 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | McWhorter Dorri | director | Option exercise | 1,550 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | SCHER JASON SCOTT | director | Option exercise | 1,550 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | SCHER JASON SCOTT | director | Option exercise | 1,550 | 84,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Dalto Juan Carlos | director | Option exercise | 1,356 | 1,354 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Chartier Kirk | director | Award / grant | 2,038 | 2,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Dalto Juan Carlos | director | Option exercise | 1,356 | 1,354 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Dalto Juan Carlos | director | Award / grant | 2,038 | 2,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Dalto Juan Carlos | director | Option exercise | 1,356 | 9,221 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Drori Rachel | director | Award / grant | 2,038 | 2,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Harris Andee | director | Award / grant | 2,038 | 2,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Hultquist Susan | director | Award / grant | 2,038 | 2,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | SCHER JASON SCOTT | director | Option exercise | 1,356 | 1,354 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | SCHER JASON SCOTT | director | Award / grant | 2,038 | 2,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | SCHER JASON SCOTT | director | Option exercise | 1,356 | 83,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Hultquist Susan | director | Award / grant | 2,038 | 2,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Drori Rachel | director | Award / grant | 2,038 | 2,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Chartier Kirk | director | Award / grant | 2,038 | 2,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Harris Andee | director | Award / grant | 2,038 | 2,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Dalto Juan Carlos | director | Award / grant | 2,038 | 2,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Dalto Juan Carlos | director | Option exercise | 1,356 | 9,221 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | McWhorter Dorri | director | Option exercise | 1,356 | 27,292 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | McWhorter Dorri | director | Option exercise | 1,356 | 1,354 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.