LWLamb Weston Holdings, Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $47.53 · now $47.53 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LW has typically landed between $39.57 and $54.77 — a range of −16.7% to +15.2% from the issuance price $47.53.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,447 overlapping 1 month windows · 2016-11-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($47.53) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where LW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $47.53 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$39.57worst · -16.7%$54.77best · +15.2%
  • now $47.53 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $48.19 (+1.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $45.08–$51.3
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $39.57–$54.77
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,447 windows spanning 2016-11-01 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−53.0%−53.0%+0.0%
2020-02-20−49.8%−52.6%+0.4%
2020-02-21−49.7%−52.5%+0.5%
3 best
2020-05-07+34.6%−6.0%+34.6%
2022-03-15+33.1%+0.0%+33.1%
2020-03-18+33.1%+0.0%+34.8%

2,447 overlapping windows · 2016-11-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+1.2%
n=10
Feb
60%
−0.8%
n=10
Mar
60%
−2.5%
n=10
Apr
60%
+1.4%
n=10
May
60%
+1.0%
n=10
Jun
50%
+1.1%
n=10
Jul
50%
−2.1%
n=10
Aug
70%
+2.2%
n=10
Sep
50%
−1.1%
n=10
Oct
67%
+6.3%
n=9
Nov
56%
+3.1%
n=9
Dec
70%
+1.4%
n=10

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$65$382026-05-11: 2 insider purchases, $409K — Gray James D …2026-04-27: 1 insider purchase, $200K — Gray James D2026-04-15: 1 insider purchase, $2.2M — JANA Partners Management, LP2026-04-13: 1 insider purchase, $4.2M — JANA Partners Management, LP2026-04-08: 1 insider purchase, $4.1M — JANA Partners Management, LP2026-04-07: 2 insider purchases, $5.7M — JANA Partners Management, LP, Prestage Norman2026-04-06: 1 insider purchase, $197K — Bensen Peter J2026-02-06: 1 insider purchase, $2.4M — Craps Jan Eli B2025-10-02: 1 insider sale, $100K — Jones Gregory W2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $100K2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $2.4M2026-04: 7 open-market purchases, $16.6M2026-05: 2 open-market purchases, $409K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Gray James D — Purchase on 2026-05-11, filed same dayofficer Gray James D — Purchase on 2026-05-11, filed same dayofficer Gray James D — Purchase on 2026-04-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector JANA Partners Management, LP — Purchase on 2026-04-15, filed same daydirector JANA Partners Management, LP — Purchase on 2026-04-13, filed 2 days after the tradedirector JANA Partners Management, LP — Purchase on 2026-04-08, filed 1 day after the tradedirector JANA Partners Management, LP — Purchase on 2026-04-07, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Prestage Norman — Purchase on 2026-04-07, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Bensen Peter J — Purchase on 2026-04-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Craps Jan Eli B — Purchase on 2026-02-06, filed same dayofficer Jones Gregory W — Sale on 2025-10-02, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-11Gray James DofficerPurchase5,000 @ $40.95$205K+8.4% of holding+11.3%not yet — horizon still open64,741Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-11Gray James DofficerPurchase5,000 @ $40.90$205K+7.7% of holding+11.3%not yet — horizon still open69,741Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-27Gray James DofficerPurchase4,556 @ $43.85$200K+8.3% of holding−5.3%not yet — horizon still open59,741Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-15JANA Partners Management, LPdirectorPurchase50,000 @ $43.19$2.2M+0.9% of holding−8.0%not yet — horizon still open5,398,980Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-13JANA Partners Management, LPdirectorPurchase100,000 @ $42.12$4.2M+1.9% of holding−8.8%not yet — horizon still open5,348,980Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-08JANA Partners Management, LPdirectorPurchase100,000 @ $41.41$4.1M+1.9% of holding−4.8%not yet — horizon still open5,248,980Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-07JANA Partners Management, LPdirectorPurchase136,000 @ $40.89$5.6M+2.7% of holding−4.8%not yet — horizon still open5,148,980Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-07Prestage NormandirectorPurchase2,500 @ $41.40$104K+35.8% of holding−4.8%not yet — horizon still open9,482Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-06Bensen Peter JdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $39.45$197K+41.0% of holding−4.1%not yet — horizon still open17,204Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-06Craps Jan Eli BdirectorPurchase50,000 @ $48.65$2.4M+20.0% of holding−9.3%−0.3%300,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-02Jones Gregory WofficerSale1,600 @ $62.48$100K−14.4% of holding−2.0%−33.4%9,475Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-13NIBLOCK ROBERT AdirectorPurchase3,000 @ $60.94$183K+12.8% of holding−10.3%−24.7%26,406Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-23JURGENSEN WILLIAM GdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $63.27$316K+2.8% of holding−3.1%−19.3%181,250Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-23BLIXT CHARLES AdirectorPurchase1,200 @ $63.25$76K+5.5% of holding−3.1%−19.3%22,982Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

132 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-04Smith Michael JareddirectorWithheld for tax9,441178,423Form 4
2026-08-04Spytek Eryk JofficerWithheld for tax3,82032,174Form 4
2026-08-04Schroeder MarcofficerWithheld for tax3,49244,110Form 4
2026-08-04Wilks SylviaofficerWithheld for tax2,22342,403Form 4
2026-08-04Crowley Michael ChristopherofficerWithheld for tax1,80532,257Form 4
2026-08-04Younes Steven JofficerWithheld for tax1,49844,855Form 4
2026-08-04Jones Gregory WofficerWithheld for tax61911,859Form 4
2026-07-28Jones Gregory WofficerAward / grant2,74612,477Form 4
2026-07-28Craps Jan Eli BdirectorAward / grant68,656689,169Form 4
2026-07-28Crowley Michael ChristopherofficerAward / grant8,42234,062Form 4
2026-07-28Gray James DofficerAward / grant16,111101,444Form 4
2026-07-28Spytek Eryk JofficerAward / grant8,78835,993Form 4
2026-07-28Smith Michael JareddirectorAward / grant45,770187,863Form 4
2026-07-28Philip AmitofficerAward / grant8,78838,686Form 4
2026-07-28Younes Steven JofficerAward / grant6,95746,353Form 4
2026-07-28Schroeder MarcofficerAward / grant8,42247,601Form 4
2026-07-28Wilks SylviaofficerAward / grant8,97144,626Form 4
2026-07-14Spytek Eryk JofficerWithheld for tax2,31127,205Form 4
2026-07-14Smith Michael JareddirectorWithheld for tax2,245142,093Form 4
2026-07-14Schroeder MarcofficerWithheld for tax1,35439,179Form 4
2026-07-14Younes Steven JofficerWithheld for tax46839,396Form 4
2026-07-14Crowley Michael ChristopherofficerWithheld for tax11325,640Form 4
2026-07-14Jones Gregory WofficerWithheld for tax619,731Form 4
2026-07-14Crowley Michael ChristopherofficerAward / grant37825,753Form 4
2026-07-14Jones Gregory WofficerAward / grant2099,792Form 4
2026-07-14Spytek Eryk JofficerAward / grant2,35429,516Form 4
2026-07-14Smith Michael JareddirectorAward / grant3,942144,338Form 4
2026-07-14Younes Steven JofficerAward / grant1,57639,864Form 4
2026-07-14Schroeder MarcofficerAward / grant2,41740,533Form 4
2026-05-11Gray James DofficerAward / grant15,09684,837Form 4
2026-05-08Philip AmitofficerAward / grant29,63129,631Form 4
2026-05-08Philip AmitofficerAward / grant59,80159,801Form 4
2026-05-08Philip AmitofficerAward / grant51,25851,258Form 4
2026-04-11Schroeder MarcofficerWithheld for tax6,08437,857Form 4
2026-04-10Gray James DofficerAward / grant99,66899,668Form 4
2026-04-10Gray James DofficerAward / grant85,43085,430Form 4
2026-04-10Gray James DofficerAward / grant54,98555,185Form 4
2026-04-10Gray James DofficerAward / grant7,6447,644Form 4
2026-02-06Younes Steven JofficerAward / grant99,66899,668Form 4
2026-02-06Spytek Eryk JofficerAward / grant11,72626,800Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousesale2025-02-132025-01-13$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-02-122025-01-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-02-062025-01-17$1–15K
Gary PetersSenatesale2024-11-142024-10-31$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-08-072024-07-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-08-072024-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-06-052024-05-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-05-062024-04-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-08-072023-07-28$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-07-112023-06-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2022-02-082022-01-04$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.