LVWRLiveWire Group, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Manufacturersas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.19 · now $1.19 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LVWR has typically landed between $0.77 and $1.61 — a range of −34.9% to +35.6% from the issuance price $1.19.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,434 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-11-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.19) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where LVWR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.19 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$0.775worst · -34.9%$1.61best · +35.6%
  • now $1.19 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.18 (-0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.06–$1.31
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $0.775–$1.61
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,434 windows spanning 2020-11-24 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-04-09−58.8%−58.8%+0.0%
2025-06-11−54.3%−54.3%+0.0%
2025-06-10−53.9%−53.9%+0.0%
3 best
2025-05-09+611.0%+0.0%+648.0%
2025-05-08+567.9%−10.7%+567.9%
2025-05-07+464.2%−5.7%+464.2%

1,434 overlapping windows · 2020-11-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
33%
−9.8%
n=6
Feb
33%
−8.4%
n=6
Mar
0%
−8.7%
n=6
Apr
67%
+2.1%
n=6
May
33%
+21.6%
n=6
Jun
67%
+7.4%
n=6
Jul
50%
+7.1%
n=6
Aug
50%
−8.0%
n=6
Sep
33%
−8.7%
n=6
Oct
80%
+16.4%
n=5
Nov
60%
−6.7%
n=5
Dec
67%
−6.6%
n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$6$12026-07-31: 2 insider sales, $199K — Gruner Kjell, Cornog William L2026-07-30: 1 insider sale, $14K — Gruner Kjell2026-07-29: 2 insider sales, $563K — Donnez Karim, Nienhuis Jeremiah2025-12-05: 1 insider sale, $17K — Bekefy Jon2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $17K2026-07: 5 open-market sales, $776K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Gruner Kjell — Sale on 2026-07-31, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Cornog William L — Sale on 2026-07-31, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Gruner Kjell — Sale on 2026-07-30, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Donnez Karim — Sale on 2026-07-29, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Nienhuis Jeremiah — Sale on 2026-07-29, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bekefy Jon — Sale on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-31Gruner KjelldirectorSale94,091 @ $2.11$199K−46.5% of holding−35.3%not yet — horizon still open108,227Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-31Cornog William LdirectorSale216 @ $2.25$486−0.1% of holding−35.3%not yet — horizon still open284,552Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-30Gruner KjelldirectorSale7,071 @ $1.98$14K−3.4% of holding−38.2%not yet — horizon still open202,318Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-29Donnez KarimofficerSale230,557 @ $2.33$537K−14.6% of holding−53.2%not yet — horizon still open1,344,076Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-29Nienhuis JeremiahofficerSale10,732 @ $2.38$25K−8.8% of holding−53.2%not yet — horizon still open110,608Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-05Bekefy JonofficerSale4,199 @ $4.02$17K−3.5% of holding−22.3%−80.7%116,749Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-16Donnez KarimofficerSale54,661 @ $5.50$301K−5.2% of holding−39.1%−16.3%989,120Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-12Garcia John LdirectorSale56,559 @ $6.47$366K−2.1% of holding−52.6%−36.4%2,698,722Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-12Gruner KjelldirectorSale18,969 @ $6.49$123K−13.5% of holding−52.6%−36.4%121,360Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-11Garcia John LdirectorSale49,998 @ $7.49$374K−1.8% of holding−58.5%−50.9%2,755,281Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-11Donnez KarimofficerSale35,699 @ $7.50$268K−3.2% of holding−58.5%−50.9%1,087,256Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-11Maraj TralisaofficerSale25,000 @ $8.60$215K−7.1% of holding−58.5%−50.9%324,771Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-10Cornog William LdirectorSale25,000 @ $7.65$191K−10.6% of holding−57.6%−55.4%211,739Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-10Cornog William LdirectorSale15,000 @ $7.57$114K−7.1% of holding−57.6%−55.4%196,739Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-10Bekefy JonofficerSale8,088 @ $8.14$66K−6.2% of holding−57.6%−55.4%122,386Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-10Ragland RyanofficerSale2,853 @ $7.55$22K−2.2% of holding−57.6%−55.4%128,918Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-10Ragland RyanofficerSale2,745 @ $6.24$17K−2.0% of holding−57.6%−55.4%131,771Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-10Ragland RyanofficerSale1,293 @ $7.99$10K−1.0% of holding−57.6%−55.4%127,625Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-12Donnez KarimofficerSale54,952 @ $5.52$303K−12.1% of holding−15.3%+4.5%398,293Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-11Ragland RyanofficerSale3,526 @ $5.66$20K−7.2% of holding−21.3%−7.8%45,539Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

47 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-14Gerrard AllenofficerWithheld for tax848182,212Form 4
2026-06-14Bekefy JonofficerWithheld for tax662192,108Form 4
2026-06-12Donnez KarimofficerWithheld for tax43,4751,574,633Form 4
2026-05-21Gruner KjelldirectorAward / grant88,029209,389Form 4
2026-05-21Mizuno HiromichidirectorAward / grant88,029281,369Form 4
2026-05-21Cornog William LdirectorAward / grant88,029284,768Form 4
2026-02-21Donnez KarimofficerWithheld for tax29,8321,618,108Form 4
2026-02-21Ragland RyanofficerWithheld for tax3,269216,798Form 4
2026-02-21Bekefy JonofficerWithheld for tax2,389192,770Form 4
2026-02-21Hoover JenniferofficerWithheld for tax1,025112,818Form 4
2026-02-19Donnez KarimofficerWithheld for tax113,713875,407Form 4
2026-02-19Ragland RyanofficerWithheld for tax18,356123,500Form 4
2026-02-19Gerrard AllenofficerWithheld for tax16,48181,665Form 4
2026-02-19Bekefy JonofficerWithheld for tax16,11998,592Form 4
2026-02-19Hoover JenniferofficerWithheld for tax3,83626,852Form 4
2026-02-19Hoover JenniferofficerAward / grant86,991113,843Form 4
2026-02-19Bekefy JonofficerAward / grant96,567195,159Form 4
2026-02-19Donnez KarimofficerAward / grant772,5331,647,940Form 4
2026-02-19Ragland RyanofficerAward / grant96,567220,067Form 4
2026-02-19Gerrard AllenofficerAward / grant101,395183,060Form 4
2026-02-13Ragland RyanofficerWithheld for tax3,055141,856Form 4
2026-02-13Bekefy JonofficerWithheld for tax2,038114,711Form 4
2025-12-02Bekefy JonofficerWithheld for tax2,723122,149Form 4
2025-12-02Ragland RyanofficerWithheld for tax2,288145,920Form 4
2025-12-02Bekefy JonofficerWithheld for tax1,201120,948Form 4
2025-12-02Ragland RyanofficerWithheld for tax1,009144,911Form 4
2025-12-02Ragland RyanofficerAward / grant2,564148,208Form 4
2025-12-02Bekefy JonofficerAward / grant2,486124,872Form 4
2025-08-04Ragland RyanofficerAward / grant18,019145,644Form 4
2025-06-12Donnez KarimofficerWithheld for tax43,4751,043,781Form 4
2025-05-15Garcia John LdirectorAward / grant74,0322,805,279Form 4
2025-05-14Gruner KjelldirectorAward / grant121,360140,329Form 4
2025-05-14Cornog William LdirectorAward / grant121,360236,739Form 4
2025-05-14Mizuno HiromichidirectorAward / grant121,360193,340Form 4
2025-05-14Garcia John LdirectorAward / grant121,3602,731,247Form 4
2025-02-21Donnez KarimofficerWithheld for tax31,6411,122,955Form 4
2025-02-21Maraj TralisaofficerWithheld for tax7,718349,771Form 4
2025-02-21Ragland RyanofficerWithheld for tax2,506134,516Form 4
2025-02-21Bekefy JonofficerWithheld for tax2,316130,474Form 4
2025-02-19Ragland RyanofficerAward / grant94,538137,022Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.