Issued 2026-09-16 at $41.06 · now $41.06 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LVS has typically landed between $35.08 and $48.60 — a range of −14.6% to +18.4% from the issuance price $41.06.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($41.06) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where LVS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $41.06 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $41.06 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $40.82 (-0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $38.13–$43.5
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $35.08–$48.6
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-29 | −85.0% | −85.0% | +9.1% |
| 2008-09-26 | −84.8% | −84.8% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −82.0% | −82.0% | +8.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-12 | +195.5% | +0.0% | +195.5% |
| 2009-03-11 | +186.9% | +0.0% | +219.7% |
| 2009-03-09 | +184.1% | +0.0% | +249.0% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$30.5B
market cap
$2.57
EPS (TTM)
17.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-21
next earnings
Revenue$13.0B
'20'25
Net income$1.6B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.8B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr12.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr102.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr10.15
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$63.77
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$61.22
- Analyst target · range $52.00–$77.00$61.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$41.06
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+1.4%
n=18
Feb
58%
+0.5%
n=19
Mar
37%
+0.1%
n=19
Apr
58%
+9.6%
n=19
May
42%
−2.0%
n=19
Jun
37%
−3.9%
n=19
Jul
58%
+3.0%
n=19
Aug
47%
+2.5%
n=19
Sep
42%
−0.2%
n=19
Oct
78%
+2.2%
n=18
Nov
72%
+0.8%
n=18
Dec
56%
+0.8%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | Forman Charles D | director | Sale | 11,400 @ $54.09 | $617K | −6.1% of holding | −10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 176,428 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Dumont Patrick | director | Sale | 60,165 @ $54.75 | $3.3M | −10.5% of holding | −0.2% | −36.7% | 511,942 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Sale | 1,188,113 @ $66.67 | $79.2M | −99.1% of holding | −13.2% | −39.1% | 10,537 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Sale | 10,537 @ $67.44 | $711K | −100.0% of holding | −13.2% | −39.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Adelson Miriam | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 77,991 @ $67.56 | $5.3M | −0.3% of holding | −14.6% | −37.7% | 23,333,441 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Sale | 51,350 @ $67.58 | $3.5M | −100.0% of holding | −14.6% | −37.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Sale | 732,186 @ $66.80 | $48.9M | −99.7% of holding | −11.5% | −36.8% | 2,325 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Sale | 2,325 @ $67.28 | $156K | −100.0% of holding | −11.5% | −36.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Sale | 15,489 @ $66.24 | $1.0M | −100.0% of holding | −9.7% | −34.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Sale | 382,805 @ $66.39 | $25.4M | −100.0% of holding | −10.5% | −34.2% | 100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Sale | 100 @ $67.00 | $7K | −100.0% of holding | −10.5% | −34.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Sale | 17,095 @ $67.03 | $1.1M | −100.0% of holding | −11.3% | −31.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Dumont Patrick | director | Sale | 81,893 @ $67.66 | $5.5M | −14.1% of holding | −4.2% | −32.5% | 500,318 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Dumont Patrick | director | Sale | 53,710 @ $68.43 | $3.7M | −10.7% of holding | −4.2% | −32.5% | 446,608 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Dumont Patrick | director | Sale | 17,352 @ $68.97 | $1.2M | −3.7% of holding | −5.3% | −36.9% | 446,608 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Dumont Patrick | director | Sale | 210,305 @ $69.96 | $14.7M | −32.0% of holding | −6.9% | −37.5% | 446,608 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $70.17 | $7.0M | −100.0% of holding | −6.9% | −37.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Hudson D. Zachary | officer | Sale | 53,257 @ $70.37 | $3.7M | −79.5% of holding | −6.9% | −37.5% | 13,735 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Chafetz Irwin | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $69.76 | $2.1M | −29.7% of holding | −6.9% | −37.5% | 70,949 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Hyzak Randy | officer | Sale | 35,635 @ $66.45 | $2.4M | −40.0% of holding | −4.7% | −37.1% | 53,499 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Hyzak Randy | officer | Sale | 21,910 @ $66.44 | $1.5M | −29.1% of holding | −4.7% | −37.1% | 53,499 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | Hudson D. Zachary | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $64.99 | $6.5M | −87.9% of holding | +0.1% | −30.5% | 13,735 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Sale | 360,000 @ $63.05 | $22.7M | −100.0% of holding | +4.8% | −27.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $62.98 | $2.5M | −100.0% of holding | +4.7% | −23.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Sale | 400,000 @ $59.20 | $23.7M | −100.0% of holding | +16.0% | −17.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $59.05 | $11.8M | −100.0% of holding | +18.3% | −17.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Sale | 532,993 @ $58.77 | $31.3M | −76.1% of holding | +17.0% | −13.1% | 167,007 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Sale | 167,007 @ $59.22 | $9.9M | −100.0% of holding | +17.0% | −13.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Sale | 264,588 @ $59.40 | $15.7M | −100.0% of holding | +15.7% | −13.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Sale | 35,412 @ $58.75 | $2.1M | −11.8% of holding | +15.7% | −13.2% | 264,588 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Forman Charles D | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $54.13 | $1.1M | −9.6% of holding | −8.0% | −3.3% | 187,828 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | Forman Charles D | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $52.63 | $526K | −4.6% of holding | −0.4% | +0.8% | 207,828 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Pant Muktesh | director | Purchase | 23,000 @ $43.51 | $1.0M | ownership Δ n/a | −21.7% | +6.2% | 23,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
141 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Adelson Miriam | tenPercentOwner | Gift | 7,947,648 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Adelson Miriam | tenPercentOwner | Gift | 1,077,046 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Adelson Miriam | tenPercentOwner | Gift | 43,859,460 | 43,859,460 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Adelson Miriam | tenPercentOwner | Gift | 43,859,459 | 43,859,459 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Adelson Miriam | tenPercentOwner | Gift | 87,718,919 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Adelson Miriam | tenPercentOwner | Gift | 87,718,918 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Chau Micheline | director | Award / grant | 3,948 | 35,293 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Besca Mark | director | Award / grant | 3,948 | 8,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Pant Muktesh | director | Award / grant | 3,948 | 8,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Li Alain | director | Award / grant | 3,948 | 12,931 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Kramer Lewis | director | Award / grant | 3,948 | 31,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Forman Charles D | director | Award / grant | 3,948 | 180,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Chafetz Irwin | director | Award / grant | 3,948 | 74,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Dumont Patrick | director | Award / grant | 167,081 | 167,081 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Hyzak Randy | officer | Award / grant | 31,111 | 31,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Hudson D. Zachary | officer | Award / grant | 62,684 | 62,684 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Dumont Patrick | director | Option exercise | 61,740 | 572,107 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Dumont Patrick | director | Option exercise | 61,740 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Option exercise | 189,252 | 397,197 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Option exercise | 75,639 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Option exercise | 132,306 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Option exercise | 189,252 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Option exercise | 132,306 | 207,945 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Option exercise | 75,639 | 75,639 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Gift | 65,167 | 324,860 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Gift | 65,167 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Gift | 130,688 | 65,167 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Gift | 130,688 | 259,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Dumont Patrick | director | Withheld for tax | 13,151 | 510,367 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Hudson D. Zachary | officer | Option exercise | 17,378 | 45,023 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Dumont Patrick | director | Option exercise | 33,419 | 523,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Dumont Patrick | director | Option exercise | 33,419 | 67,849 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Option exercise | 65,167 | 195,855 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Option exercise | 65,167 | 132,306 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Hyzak Randy | officer | Option exercise | 14,036 | 87,641 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Hyzak Randy | officer | Option exercise | 14,036 | 28,496 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Hudson D. Zachary | officer | Option exercise | 17,378 | 35,281 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Hyzak Randy | officer | Award / grant | 40,762 | 40,762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Goldstein Robert G | director | Award / grant | 189,252 | 189,252 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Dumont Patrick | director | Award / grant | 97,052 | 97,052 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | purchase | 2026-01-13 | 2024-10-23 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | sale | 2026-01-13 | 2025-05-08 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-12-09 | 2025-11-13 | $100–250K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-11-10 | 2025-10-27 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-09-11 | 2025-08-22 | $50–100K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-09-11 | 2025-08-22 | $50–100K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-26 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-26 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-07-07 | 2025-06-27 | $50–100K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-05-14 | 2025-04-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.