Issued 2026-09-16 at $39.15 · now $39.15 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LUV has typically landed between $32.52 and $46.52 — a range of −16.9% to +18.8% from the issuance price $39.15.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($39.15) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where LUV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $39.15 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $39.15 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $39.19 (+0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $36.21–$42.17
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $32.52–$46.52
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-19 | −45.8% | −45.8% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −43.7% | −45.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −40.1% | −45.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-05-07 | +59.5% | −6.2% | +59.5% |
| 2020-05-15 | +53.2% | +0.0% | +70.0% |
| 2020-05-06 | +53.1% | −4.3% | +53.5% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$22.1B
market cap
$1.63
EPS (TTM)
27.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-21
next earnings
Revenue$28.1B
'20'25
Net income$441M
'20'25
Free cash flow−$831M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr1.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr5.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.75
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$-7.31
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$49.96
- Analyst target · range $32.00–$65.00$54.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$39.15
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
61%
+2.0%
n=18
Feb
53%
+2.3%
n=19
Mar
58%
−0.9%
n=19
Apr
53%
−1.8%
n=19
May
47%
+1.2%
n=19
Jun
42%
−0.4%
n=19
Jul
47%
+0.8%
n=19
Aug
42%
−0.3%
n=19
Sep
63%
+2.0%
n=19
Oct
61%
+0.0%
n=18
Nov
72%
+6.3%
n=18
Dec
61%
+2.3%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | Atherton Lisa M | director | Sale | 118 @ $37.95 | $4K | −100.0% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Jones Justin | officer | Sale | 8,085 @ $37.36 | $302K | −11.6% of holding | +12.3% | +6.9% | 61,860 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | SARETSKY GREGG A | director | Purchase | 2,745 @ $30.03 | $82K | +13.1% of holding | +4.0% | +70.8% | 23,644 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | SARETSKY GREGG A | director | Purchase | 600 @ $30.02 | $18K | +3.0% of holding | +4.0% | +70.8% | 20,899 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Feinberg Sarah | director | Purchase | 1,300 @ $30.00 | $39K | +10.2% of holding | +1.2% | +67.7% | 14,029 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Feinberg Sarah | director | Purchase | 200 @ $30.01 | $6K | +1.4% of holding | +1.2% | +67.7% | 14,229 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-30 | SARETSKY GREGG A | director | Purchase | 3,670 @ $27.29 | $100K | +32.7% of holding | +13.1% | −13.7% | 14,881 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-29 | Breber Pierre R | director | Purchase | 1,500 @ $26.92 | $40K | +3.8% of holding | +17.2% | −9.3% | 40,619 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-29 | Breber Pierre R | director | Purchase | 1,154 @ $26.94 | $31K | +2.8% of holding | +17.2% | −9.3% | 42,573 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-29 | Breber Pierre R | director | Purchase | 927 @ $27.00 | $25K | +2.2% of holding | +17.2% | −9.3% | 44,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-29 | Breber Pierre R | director | Purchase | 900 @ $26.85 | $24K | +2.5% of holding | +17.2% | −9.3% | 37,300 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-29 | Breber Pierre R | director | Purchase | 900 @ $26.79 | $24K | +2.6% of holding | +17.2% | −9.3% | 35,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-29 | Breber Pierre R | director | Purchase | 800 @ $26.93 | $22K | +2.0% of holding | +17.2% | −9.3% | 41,419 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-29 | Breber Pierre R | director | Purchase | 651 @ $26.87 | $17K | +1.7% of holding | +17.2% | −9.3% | 38,451 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-29 | Breber Pierre R | director | Purchase | 500 @ $26.86 | $13K | +1.3% of holding | +17.2% | −9.3% | 37,800 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-29 | Breber Pierre R | director | Purchase | 400 @ $26.95 | $11K | +0.9% of holding | +17.2% | −9.3% | 42,973 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-29 | Breber Pierre R | director | Purchase | 400 @ $26.90 | $11K | +1.0% of holding | +17.2% | −9.3% | 39,119 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-29 | Breber Pierre R | director | Purchase | 400 @ $26.83 | $11K | +1.1% of holding | +17.2% | −9.3% | 36,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-29 | Breber Pierre R | director | Purchase | 400 @ $26.81 | $11K | +1.1% of holding | +17.2% | −9.3% | 36,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-29 | Breber Pierre R | director | Purchase | 400 @ $26.77 | $11K | +1.2% of holding | +17.2% | −9.3% | 34,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-29 | Breber Pierre R | director | Purchase | 200 @ $26.89 | $5K | +0.5% of holding | +17.2% | −9.3% | 38,719 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-29 | Breber Pierre R | director | Purchase | 100 @ $26.96 | $3K | +0.2% of holding | +17.2% | −9.3% | 43,073 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-29 | Breber Pierre R | director | Purchase | 100 @ $26.80 | $3K | +0.3% of holding | +17.2% | −9.3% | 35,600 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-29 | Breber Pierre R | director | Purchase | 100 @ $26.78 | $3K | +0.3% of holding | +17.2% | −9.3% | 34,600 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-29 | Breber Pierre R | director | Purchase | 100 @ $26.74 | $3K | +0.3% of holding | +17.2% | −9.3% | 34,100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-29 | Breber Pierre R | director | Purchase | 68 @ $26.88 | $2K | +0.2% of holding | +17.2% | −9.3% | 38,519 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-28 | Hess David P | director | Purchase | 7,500 @ $26.52 | $199K | +47.9% of holding | +16.7% | −2.7% | 23,156 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Feinberg Sarah | director | Purchase | 500 @ $31.48 | $16K | +7.3% of holding | −15.5% | −17.9% | 7,311 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-13 | Reynolds Christopher P. | director | Purchase | 3,258 @ $30.68 | $100K | +20.8% of holding | −12.6% | −16.6% | 18,914 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Watson Patricia A | director | Purchase | 3,268 @ $30.58 | $100K | +41.0% of holding | −12.6% | −16.6% | 11,243 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Cush C. David | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $30.03 | $150K | +35.7% of holding | −8.4% | −11.8% | 19,011 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-30 | Atherton Lisa M | director | Purchase | 118 @ $31.28 | $4K | ownership Δ n/a | +1.4% | −6.9% | 118 | Form 4 · filed 39 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-06 | Rutherford Linda B. | director | Sale | 3,849 @ $34.40 | $132K | −4.1% of holding | −0.6% | −0.5% | 89,376 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
69 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Martinez Jimmy Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 179 | 25,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Liberty Jason T | director | Award / grant | 3,787 | 3,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Krishna Varun | director | Award / grant | 3,787 | 3,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Jones Justin | officer | Award / grant | 8,568 | 85,784 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Jordan Robert E | director | Award / grant | 28,321 | 534,055 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Roach Anthony | officer | Award / grant | 9,506 | 73,179 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Watterson Andrew M | officer | Award / grant | 2,995 | 209,840 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Woods Lauren Tauscher | officer | Award / grant | 7,598 | 56,658 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Doxey Tom | officer | Award / grant | 6,316 | 111,116 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Feinberg Sarah | director | Award / grant | 4,108 | 18,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Reynolds Christopher P. | director | Award / grant | 4,108 | 28,440 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Atherton Lisa M | director | Award / grant | 4,108 | 15,648 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Watson Patricia A | director | Award / grant | 4,108 | 20,769 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | FORNARO ROBERT L | director | Award / grant | 4,108 | 13,537 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Breber Pierre R | director | Award / grant | 4,108 | 13,537 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Hess David P | director | Award / grant | 4,108 | 32,682 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Grissen David | director | Award / grant | 4,108 | 13,537 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | BROOKS DOUGLAS H | director | Award / grant | 4,108 | 84,223 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-21 | Doxey Tom | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,447 | 104,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-21 | Roach Anthony | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,179 | 63,673 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Roach Anthony | officer | Award / grant | 22,058 | 65,852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Watterson Andrew M | officer | Award / grant | 35,092 | 206,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Martinez Jimmy Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 7,294 | 25,423 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Woods Lauren Tauscher | officer | Award / grant | 18,950 | 49,060 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Doxey Tom | officer | Award / grant | 28,199 | 116,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Jones Justin | officer | Award / grant | 23,863 | 77,216 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Jordan Robert E | director | Award / grant | 92,867 | 505,734 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-21 | Jordan Robert E | director | Withheld for tax | 38,742 | 412,867 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-21 | Watterson Andrew M | officer | Withheld for tax | 17,942 | 171,753 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-21 | Jones Justin | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,507 | 53,353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-21 | Woods Lauren Tauscher | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,585 | 30,110 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-21 | Roach Anthony | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,658 | 43,794 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-21 | Martinez Jimmy Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,755 | 18,129 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-02 | BROOKS DOUGLAS H | director | Gift | 1,836 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-21 | Martinez Jimmy Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 68 | 20,884 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | Watterson Andrew M | officer | Discretionary | 17,926 | 17,926 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-14 | Feinberg Sarah | director | Award / grant | 5,418 | 12,729 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-14 | Watson Patricia A | director | Award / grant | 5,418 | 16,661 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-14 | Reynolds Christopher P. | director | Award / grant | 5,418 | 24,332 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-14 | SARETSKY GREGG A | director | Award / grant | 5,418 | 20,299 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Robert Van Epps | House | sale | 2026-06-17 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-06 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-05 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2025-09-12 | 2025-08-05 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-08-14 | 2025-07-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-26 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-19 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-02-11 | 2025-01-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-02-06 | 2025-01-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-12-05 | 2024-11-12 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.