Issued 2026-09-16 at $13.87 · now $13.87 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LUNR has typically landed between $9.32 and $23.29 — a range of −32.8% to +67.9% from the issuance price $13.87.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,187 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-11-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($13.87) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where LUNR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $13.87 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $13.87 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $13.93 (+0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.01–$15.84
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.32–$23.29
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,187 windows spanning 2021-11-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-02-17 | −74.0% | −74.8% | +0.0% |
| 2023-02-21 | −71.5% | −72.9% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-06 | −65.0% | −65.0% | +4.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-01-19 | +321.1% | −1.5% | +321.1% |
| 2023-01-18 | +303.4% | −9.7% | +303.4% |
| 2023-01-19 | +277.0% | −9.4% | +305.0% |
1,187 overlapping windows · 2021-11-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
100%
+17.1%
n=5
Feb
40%
+22.4%
n=5
Mar
60%
−15.7%
n=5
Apr
60%
−0.0%
n=5
May
40%
+19.8%
n=5
Jun
40%
−14.1%
n=5
Jul
80%
−3.0%
n=5
Aug
40%
−3.2%
n=5
Sep
60%
+9.9%
n=5
Oct
50%
−1.8%
n=4
Nov
50%
+21.3%
n=4
Dec
60%
+14.3%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 1,698 @ $16.00 | $27K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,494,768 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 93,105 @ $15.39 | $1.4M | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,496,270 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 1,501 @ $15.76 | $24K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,494,768 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Vontur Steven | officer | Sale | 3,050 @ $16.13 | $49K | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 113,997 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 139,772 @ $16.86 | $2.4M | −3.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,496,905 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 2,137 @ $17.68 | $38K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,494,768 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 248,784 @ $16.13 | $4.0M | −6.6% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,513,432 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 18,664 @ $16.68 | $311K | −0.5% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,494,768 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | ADVENT INTERNATIONAL, L.P. | director | Sale | 11,495,514 @ $12.84 | $147.6M | −50.0% of holding | +26.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,495,514 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 47,303 @ $13.20 | $624K | −1.3% of holding | +21.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,494,768 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 110,976 @ $15.64 | $1.7M | −3.1% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,494,768 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 94,899 @ $20.24 | $1.9M | −2.6% of holding | −44.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,541,778 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 47,010 @ $20.80 | $978K | −1.3% of holding | −44.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,494,768 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Crain Timothy Price II | officer | Sale | 135,400 @ $21.81 | $3.0M | −27.0% of holding | −36.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 365,879 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Crain Timothy Price II | officer | Sale | 14,600 @ $22.39 | $327K | −4.0% of holding | −36.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 351,279 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 121,809 @ $26.03 | $3.2M | −3.3% of holding | −47.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,514,868 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 19,334 @ $26.86 | $519K | −0.6% of holding | −47.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,495,534 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 766 @ $27.75 | $21K | −0.0% of holding | −47.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,494,768 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Liquori William John Jr | director | Sale | 18,321 @ $29.87 | $547K | −21.0% of holding | −45.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,875 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-01 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 84,411 @ $38.50 | $3.3M | −2.3% of holding | −45.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,552,266 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 37,997 @ $39.09 | $1.5M | −1.1% of holding | −45.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,514,269 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 8,301 @ $40.25 | $334K | −0.2% of holding | −45.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,505,968 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 7,193 @ $41.26 | $297K | −0.2% of holding | −45.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,498,775 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 3,007 @ $42.35 | $127K | −0.1% of holding | −45.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,495,768 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $43.03 | $43K | −0.0% of holding | −45.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,494,768 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 71,988 @ $33.27 | $2.4M | −2.0% of holding | −32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,564,689 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 34,459 @ $34.09 | $1.2M | −1.0% of holding | −32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,530,230 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 13,371 @ $35.06 | $469K | −0.4% of holding | −32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,516,859 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 7,889 @ $36.33 | $287K | −0.2% of holding | −32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,508,970 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 7,151 @ $37.99 | $272K | −0.2% of holding | −32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,494,768 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 7,051 @ $37.34 | $263K | −0.2% of holding | −32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,501,919 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 92,739 @ $25.00 | $2.3M | −2.6% of holding | +28.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,543,938 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 49,170 @ $25.41 | $1.2M | −1.4% of holding | +28.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,494,768 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 85,141 @ $27.74 | $2.4M | −2.3% of holding | +14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,551,536 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 47,869 @ $28.65 | $1.4M | −1.3% of holding | +14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,503,667 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 8,899 @ $29.51 | $263K | −0.3% of holding | +14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,494,768 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | McGrath Peter | officer | Sale | 24,554 @ $23.61 | $580K | −5.8% of holding | +46.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 401,246 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Altemus Stephen J | director | Sale | 13,751 @ $23.61 | $325K | −1.2% of holding | +46.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,162,495 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Crain Timothy Price II | officer | Sale | 8,447 @ $23.61 | $199K | −2.3% of holding | +46.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 351,279 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Jones Anna Chiara | officer | Sale | 4,911 @ $23.61 | $116K | −2.3% of holding | +46.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 204,289 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 102,945 @ $23.03 | $2.4M | −2.8% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,533,732 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 38,964 @ $23.65 | $922K | −1.1% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,494,768 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 135,021 @ $18.59 | $2.5M | −3.6% of holding | +45.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,575,976 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 67,589 @ $17.80 | $1.2M | −1.8% of holding | +45.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,710,997 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 51,099 @ $19.70 | $1.0M | −1.4% of holding | +45.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,524,877 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Sale | 30,109 @ $20.34 | $613K | −0.9% of holding | +45.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,494,768 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Crain Timothy Price II | officer | Sale | 78,100 @ $16.93 | $1.3M | −15.3% of holding | +37.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 431,626 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Crain Timothy Price II | officer | Sale | 42,798 @ $17.81 | $762K | −9.9% of holding | +37.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 388,828 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Crain Timothy Price II | officer | Sale | 29,102 @ $18.81 | $547K | −7.5% of holding | +37.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 359,726 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Altemus Stephen J | director | Sale | 86,803 @ $16.01 | $1.4M | −6.9% of holding | +18.8% | +12.4% | 1,176,246 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-11 | McGrath Peter | officer | Sale | 25,541 @ $17.44 | $445K | −5.7% of holding | +7.6% | −10.0% | 425,800 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Crain Timothy Price II | officer | Sale | 23,226 @ $17.44 | $405K | −6.1% of holding | +7.6% | −10.0% | 359,726 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Jones Anna Chiara | officer | Sale | 16,779 @ $17.44 | $293K | −7.4% of holding | +7.6% | −10.0% | 209,200 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Vontur Steven | officer | Sale | 4,343 @ $17.44 | $76K | −3.6% of holding | +7.6% | −10.0% | 117,047 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-16 | Altemus Stephen J | director | Sale | 58,828 @ $20.03 | $1.2M | −5.4% of holding | −17.0% | −40.9% | 1,026,402 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-16 | Crain Timothy Price II | officer | Sale | 24,155 @ $20.04 | $484K | −7.5% of holding | −17.0% | −40.9% | 298,435 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Altemus Stephen J | director | Sale | 428,503 @ $20.06 | $8.6M | −29.5% of holding | −13.4% | −36.8% | 1,026,402 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Crain Timothy Price II | officer | Sale | 170,185 @ $20.06 | $3.4M | −36.3% of holding | −13.4% | −36.8% | 298,435 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
242 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Disposition | 1,698 | 34,124,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Option exercise | 1,698 | 34,124,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Option exercise | 1,698 | 3,496,466 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Disposition | 1,698 | 34,124,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Option exercise | 1,698 | 34,124,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Option exercise | 1,698 | 3,496,466 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Disposition | 1,698 | 34,124,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Option exercise | 1,698 | 34,124,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Option exercise | 1,698 | 3,496,466 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Disposition | 1,698 | 34,124,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Disposition | 1,698 | 34,124,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Option exercise | 1,698 | 34,124,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Option exercise | 1,698 | 3,496,466 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Option exercise | 1,698 | 3,496,466 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Option exercise | 1,698 | 3,496,466 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Disposition | 1,698 | 34,124,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Disposition | 1,698 | 34,124,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Option exercise | 1,698 | 34,124,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Option exercise | 1,698 | 34,124,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Disposition | 1,698 | 34,124,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Option exercise | 1,698 | 3,496,466 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Option exercise | 1,698 | 34,124,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Option exercise | 1,698 | 3,496,466 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Option exercise | 1,698 | 34,124,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Option exercise | 94,606 | 3,589,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Option exercise | 94,606 | 34,125,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Disposition | 94,606 | 34,125,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Disposition | 94,606 | 34,125,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Option exercise | 94,606 | 3,589,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Option exercise | 94,606 | 34,125,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Option exercise | 94,606 | 3,589,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Disposition | 94,606 | 34,125,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Option exercise | 94,606 | 34,125,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Option exercise | 94,606 | 3,589,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Disposition | 94,606 | 34,125,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Option exercise | 94,606 | 34,125,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Disposition | 94,606 | 34,125,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Option exercise | 94,606 | 3,589,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Option exercise | 94,606 | 34,125,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed | director | Option exercise | 94,606 | 3,589,374 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.