LUMN · TickerCove

LUMNLumen Technologies, Inc.as of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.67 · now $6.67 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LUMN has typically landed between $4.89 and $9.02 — a range of −26.7% to +35.2% from the issuance price $6.67.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.67) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$6.67 · 27% of range

$4.72 low$11.83 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−3.3%

typical move · IQR 24.2%

−26.7%worst (p90)+35.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

5 buys · 9 sells · 4 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where LUMN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.67 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $6.67 (+0.0%)
typical $6.45 (-3.3%)
middle 50% $5.64–$7.25
90% range $4.89–$9.02

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2023-02-07	−42.3%	−42.3%	+0.0%
2023-02-02	−41.2%	−43.5%	+0.0%
2023-02-03	−40.9%	−40.9%	+0.0%
3 best
2024-07-09	+525.5%	−0.9%	+525.5%
2024-07-10	+412.4%	+0.0%	+531.4%
2024-07-11	+380.2%	+0.0%	+471.6%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

−0.3%

n=18

Feb

32%

−3.0%

n=19

Mar

42%

−2.1%

n=19

Apr

37%

+0.0%

n=19

May

58%

+3.1%

n=19

Jun

53%

−1.0%

n=19

Jul

58%

+9.0%

n=19

Aug

53%

+3.1%

n=19

Sep

37%

+1.1%

n=19

Oct

56%

+1.9%

n=18

Nov

50%

−0.7%

n=18

Dec

56%

−0.1%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-06	Johnson Kathleen E	director	Purchase	100,000 @ $6.13	$613K	ownership Δ n/a	−3.4%	not yet — horizon still open	100,000	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-20	Linear Diankha	director	Sale	45,000 @ $7.89	$355K	−18.5% of holding	−8.9%	−24.2%	198,229	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-05	Johnson Kathleen E	director	Purchase	78,685 @ $6.35	$500K	+0.9% of holding	+6.3%	−19.1%	8,562,582	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-15	Stansbury Christopher	officer	Purchase	17,000 @ $4.44	$75K	+3.3% of holding	+22.5%	+75.9%	535,000	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-15	Stansbury Christopher	officer	Purchase	11,500 @ $4.44	$51K	+95.8% of holding	+22.5%	+75.9%	23,500	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-14	Stansbury Christopher	officer	Purchase	18,000 @ $4.29	$77K	+3.6% of holding	+32.3%	+87.0%	518,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-14	Stansbury Christopher	officer	Purchase	12,000 @ $4.29	$51K	ownership Δ n/a	+32.3%	+87.0%	12,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-05	Johnson Kathleen E	director	Purchase	135,870 @ $3.69	$502K	+1.4% of holding	+29.2%	+66.9%	9,616,947	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

58 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-05	Hinshaw John M	director	Award / grant	27,350	27,350	Form 4
2026-05-21	Linear Diankha	director	Award / grant	25,197	223,426	Form 4
2026-05-21	Capossela Christopher C	director	Award / grant	25,197	92,199	Form 4
2026-05-21	Chilton Kevin P.	director	Award / grant	25,197	436,716	Form 4
2026-05-21	Collins Michael	director	Award / grant	25,197	25,197	Form 4
2026-05-21	GOLDBERG MICHELLE J	director	Award / grant	25,197	76,591	Form 4
2026-05-21	MCMILLAN STEPHEN	director	Award / grant	25,197	76,591	Form 4
2026-05-21	Allen Quincy L	director	Award / grant	25,197	352,764	Form 4
2026-05-21	Bejar Martha Helena	director	Award / grant	25,197	421,144	Form 4
2026-05-14	Fowler James	director	Withheld for tax	22,922	1,608,275	Form 4
2026-05-07	Johnson Kathleen E	director	Gift	241,450	3,606,127	Form 4
2026-05-07	Johnson Kathleen E	director	Gift	241,450	8,509,539	Form 4
2026-04-20	Hodges Jennifer A.	officer	Award / grant	200,809	389,668	Form 4
2026-03-01	Johnson Kathleen E	director	Withheld for tax	1,715,571	9,003,691	Form 4
2026-03-01	Stansbury Christopher	officer	Withheld for tax	836,079	5,280,852	Form 4
2026-03-01	Holt Donald Leroy	officer	Withheld for tax	2,080	166,557	Form 4
2026-03-01	Fowler James	director	Award / grant	582,887	1,631,197	Form 4
2026-03-01	HACKER MARK S.	officer	Award / grant	427,450	965,127	Form 4
2026-03-01	Johnson Kathleen E	director	Award / grant	2,156,680	10,719,262	Form 4
2026-03-01	Sharritts Jeffery S.	director	Award / grant	634,699	1,210,981	Form 4
2026-03-01	Holt Donald Leroy	officer	Award / grant	97,147	168,637	Form 4
2026-03-01	Stansbury Christopher	officer	Award / grant	906,713	6,116,931	Form 4
2026-03-01	Johnson Kathleen E	director	Disposition	252,702	8,750,989	Form 4
2026-03-01	Stansbury Christopher	officer	Disposition	133,002	5,147,850	Form 4
2026-02-04	Sharritts Jeffery S.	director	Award / grant	576,282	576,282	Form 4
2026-01-09	Haynes-Gaspar Ashley	officer	Withheld for tax	30,603	1,620,048	Form 4
2026-01-05	Fowler James	director	Award / grant	612,860	1,048,310	Form 4
2025-11-07	Johnson Kathleen E	director	Withheld for tax	46,735	8,483,897	Form 4
2025-09-23	Holt Donald Leroy	officer	Award / grant	26,482	71,490	Form 4
2025-08-14	Johnson Kathleen E	director	Gift	1,086,315	8,530,632	Form 4
2025-08-14	Johnson Kathleen E	director	Gift	1,086,315	3,364,677	Form 4
2025-05-14	Allen Quincy L	director	Award / grant	51,394	327,567	Form 4
2025-05-14	Fowler James	director	Award / grant	51,394	435,450	Form 4
2025-05-14	Chilton Kevin P.	director	Award / grant	51,394	411,519	Form 4
2025-05-14	Bejar Martha Helena	director	Award / grant	51,394	395,947	Form 4
2025-05-14	GOLDBERG MICHELLE J	director	Award / grant	51,394	51,394	Form 4
2025-05-14	GLENN T MICHAEL	director	Award / grant	51,394	480,931	Form 4
2025-05-14	MCMILLAN STEPHEN	director	Award / grant	51,394	51,394	Form 4
2025-05-14	Linear Diankha	director	Award / grant	51,394	243,229	Form 4
2025-05-14	Capossela Christopher C	director	Award / grant	51,394	67,002	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Daniel Goldman	House	sale	2023-08-13	2023-07-11	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2023-06-12	2023-05-23	$1–15K
Daniel Goldman	House	purchase	2023-05-19	2023-04-10	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2023-05-08	2023-04-17	$1–15K
Daniel Goldman	House	sale	2023-04-17	2023-03-06	$1–15K
Daniel Goldman	House	sale	2023-04-17	2023-03-01	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2022-12-06	2022-11-02	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2022-12-06	2022-11-03	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2022-10-07	2022-09-29	$1–15K
Kathy Manning	House	sale	2022-09-14	2022-08-03	$1–15K
Kathy Manning	House	purchase	2022-08-10	2022-07-20	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2022-06-10	2022-05-05	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2021-12-07	2021-11-09	$1–15K
Kim Dr Schrier	House	sale	2021-11-18	2021-10-28	$1–15K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Seasonality · by month i