LULULululemon Athletica Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Retailas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $95.98 · now $95.98 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LULU has typically landed between $76.85 and $113.42 — a range of −19.9% to +18.2% from the issuance price $95.98.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($95.98) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where LULU has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $95.98 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$76.85worst · -19.9%$113.42best · +18.2%
  • now $95.98 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $94.65 (-1.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $86.97–$102.33
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $76.85–$113.42
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−59.2%−59.2%+0.0%
2008-09-25−54.2%−54.2%+3.1%
2008-09-24−51.8%−51.8%+7.7%
3 best
2009-03-17+121.1%+0.0%+121.1%
2009-03-18+120.1%−1.5%+120.1%
2009-03-06+119.1%+0.0%+126.7%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$13.0B
market cap
$12.35
EPS (TTM)
9.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-09-03
next earnings
Revenue$11.1B
'20'25
Net income$1.6B
'20'25
Free cash flow$922M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr14.2%
'20'25
ROE · by yr31.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.36
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $95.98$70.73$321.20
  • DCF (intrinsic)$303.93
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$294.19
  • Analyst target · range $88.00–$250.00$110.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$95.98

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
+0.3%
n=18
Feb
58%
−1.2%
n=19
Mar
58%
+4.6%
n=19
Apr
53%
+5.5%
n=19
May
32%
−1.3%
n=19
Jun
53%
+1.1%
n=19
Jul
63%
+2.0%
n=19
Aug
58%
+1.4%
n=19
Sep
63%
+0.6%
n=19
Oct
39%
−0.4%
n=18
Nov
67%
+4.0%
n=18
Dec
61%
+3.9%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$216$962026-06-15: 1 insider purchase, $500K — Bergh Charles V2026-04-08: 1 insider sale, $100K — NEUBURGER NICOLE2026-04-01: 1 insider purchase, $495K — MAESTRINI ANDRE2026-03-20: 1 insider purchase, $1000K — Bergh Charles V2025-12-30: 1 insider sale, $562K — FRANK MEGHAN2025-12-16: 2 insider sales, $2.8M — BURGOYNE CELESTE …2025-09-30: 1 insider sale, $109K — NEUBURGER NICOLE2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $109K2025-12: 3 open-market sales, $3.3M2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $1000K2026-04: 1 open-market purchase, $495K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $100K2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $500K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Bergh Charles V — Purchase on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer NEUBURGER NICOLE — Sale on 2026-04-08, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer MAESTRINI ANDRE — Purchase on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Bergh Charles V — Purchase on 2026-03-20, filed 3 days after the tradedirector FRANK MEGHAN — Sale on 2025-12-30, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer BURGOYNE CELESTE — Sale on 2025-12-16, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer BURGOYNE CELESTE — Sale on 2025-12-16, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer NEUBURGER NICOLE — Sale on 2025-09-30, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-15Bergh Charles VdirectorPurchase4,275 @ $117.05$500K+70.2% of holding+2.5%not yet — horizon still open10,365Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-08NEUBURGER NICOLEofficerSale622 @ $161.00$100K−3.1% of holding−24.1%not yet — horizon still open19,156Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-01MAESTRINI ANDREofficerPurchase3,275 @ $151.02$495K+10.5% of holding−25.9%not yet — horizon still open34,551Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-20Bergh Charles VdirectorPurchase6,090 @ $164.20$1000Kownership Δ n/a−6.2%not yet — horizon still open6,090Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-30FRANK MEGHANdirectorSale2,658 @ $211.37$562K−9.4% of holding−17.9%−52.8%25,626Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-16BURGOYNE CELESTEofficerSale11,605 @ $204.08$2.4M−68.6% of holding−4.5%−56.8%5,318Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-16BURGOYNE CELESTEofficerSale1,906 @ $203.48$388K−10.1% of holding−4.5%−56.8%16,923Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-30NEUBURGER NICOLEofficerSale615 @ $178.00$109K−6.4% of holding−7.5%−9.7%8,993Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-27MCDONALD CALVINdirectorSale21,977 @ $235.54$5.2M−16.0% of holding−12.2%−24.0%115,636Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-27MCDONALD CALVINdirectorSale5,072 @ $236.33$1.2M−4.4% of holding−12.2%−24.0%110,564Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-26NEUBURGER NICOLEofficerSale2,022 @ $387.11$783K−24.6% of holding+6.5%−39.8%6,198Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-09BURGOYNE CELESTEofficerSale4,598 @ $408.33$1.9M−24.2% of holding+1.4%−39.5%14,388Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-09BURGOYNE CELESTEofficerSale4,278 @ $405.73$1.7M−15.4% of holding+1.4%−39.5%23,580Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-09BURGOYNE CELESTEofficerSale3,727 @ $402.31$1.5M−10.7% of holding+1.4%−39.5%31,093Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-09BURGOYNE CELESTEofficerSale3,421 @ $406.62$1.4M−14.5% of holding+1.4%−39.5%20,159Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-09BURGOYNE CELESTEofficerSale3,235 @ $404.46$1.3M−10.4% of holding+1.4%−39.5%27,858Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-09BURGOYNE CELESTEofficerSale1,959 @ $409.64$802K−13.6% of holding+1.4%−39.5%12,429Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-09BURGOYNE CELESTEofficerSale1,749 @ $400.28$700K−4.7% of holding+1.4%−39.5%35,550Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-09BURGOYNE CELESTEofficerSale1,173 @ $407.51$478K−5.8% of holding+1.4%−39.5%18,986Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-09BURGOYNE CELESTEofficerSale730 @ $401.42$293K−2.1% of holding+1.4%−39.5%34,820Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

144 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-09O'NEILL HEIDIdirectorAward / grant40,22340,223Form 4
2026-09-09O'NEILL HEIDIdirectorAward / grant28,07928,079Form 4
2026-09-09O'NEILL HEIDIdirectorAward / grant105,295105,295Form 4
2026-06-25Henry KathryndirectorAward / grant1,6067,122Form 4
2026-06-25List TeridirectorAward / grant1,6062,839Form 4
2026-06-25Loehnis AlisondirectorAward / grant1,6063,808Form 4
2026-06-25MORFITT MARTHA A MdirectorAward / grant1,60688,596Form 4
2026-06-25Mahe IsabeldirectorAward / grant1,6064,125Form 4
2026-06-25Maurer MarcdirectorAward / grant1,6061,606Form 4
2026-06-25McNeill JondirectorAward / grant1,60610,928Form 4
2026-06-25White EmilydirectorAward / grant1,6069,739Form 4
2026-06-25Bergh Charles VdirectorAward / grant1,6061,878Form 4
2026-06-25Bracey Esi EgglestondirectorAward / grant1,6061,853Form 4
2026-06-25Gentile LauradirectorAward / grant1,6062,606Form 4
2026-06-09Bracey Esi EgglestondirectorAward / grant247247Form 4
2026-06-08NEUBURGER NICOLEofficerWithheld for tax5519,101Form 4
2026-06-08FRANK MEGHANdirectorWithheld for tax2831,964Form 4
2026-03-31FRANK MEGHANdirectorWithheld for tax40031,992Form 4
2026-03-31NEUBURGER NICOLEofficerWithheld for tax36919,778Form 4
2026-03-31MAESTRINI ANDREofficerWithheld for tax35731,276Form 4
2026-03-30MAESTRINI ANDREofficerWithheld for tax2,20631,857Form 4
2026-03-30NEUBURGER NICOLEofficerWithheld for tax1,97920,348Form 4
2026-03-30FRANK MEGHANdirectorWithheld for tax1,97732,593Form 4
2026-03-30MAESTRINI ANDREofficerWithheld for tax22431,633Form 4
2026-03-30FRANK MEGHANdirectorWithheld for tax20132,392Form 4
2026-03-30NEUBURGER NICOLEofficerWithheld for tax20120,147Form 4
2026-03-30MAESTRINI ANDREofficerOption exercise4,69234,063Form 4
2026-03-30NEUBURGER NICOLEofficerOption exercise3,75422,327Form 4
2026-03-30NEUBURGER NICOLEofficerOption exercise3,7540Form 4
2026-03-30FRANK MEGHANdirectorOption exercise3,75434,570Form 4
2026-03-30FRANK MEGHANdirectorOption exercise3,7540Form 4
2026-03-30MAESTRINI ANDREofficerOption exercise4,6920Form 4
2026-03-25FRANK MEGHANdirectorWithheld for tax24630,816Form 4
2026-03-25NEUBURGER NICOLEofficerWithheld for tax22418,573Form 4
2026-03-25MAESTRINI ANDREofficerWithheld for tax22029,371Form 4
2026-03-19FRANK MEGHANdirectorAward / grant5,43631,062Form 4
2026-03-19MUSSAFER DAVID MdirectorAward / grant1,08722,901Form 4
2026-03-19Bergh Charles VdirectorAward / grant272272Form 4
2026-03-19McNeill JondirectorAward / grant3559,322Form 4
2026-03-19Mahe IsabeldirectorAward / grant6642,519Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-04-072026-03-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-17$1–15K
Dan NewhouseHousepurchase2026-01-152025-12-11$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-12-152025-11-12$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.