Issued 2026-09-25 at $315.21 · now $315.21 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, LRCX has typically landed between $259.19 and $390.74 — a range of −17.8% to +24.0% from the issuance price $315.21.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($315.21) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where LRCX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $315.21 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $315.21 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $324.81 (+3.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $299.57–$350.04
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $259.19–$390.74
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −42.8% | −42.8% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −41.6% | −41.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −40.3% | −40.3% | +2.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-10-17 | +55.6% | +0.0% | +58.8% |
| 2022-10-14 | +52.6% | +0.0% | +59.0% |
| 2025-09-03 | +50.7% | +0.0% | +50.7% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$381.7B
market cap
$5.30
EPS (TTM)
57.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$18.4B
'20'25
Net income$5.4B
'20'25
Free cash flow$5.4B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr29.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr54.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.48
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$46.99
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$181.29
- Analyst target · range $275.00–$500.00$365.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$315.21
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
61%
+4.5%
n=18
Feb
68%
+2.7%
n=19
Mar
63%
+1.8%
n=19
Apr
58%
+3.1%
n=19
May
68%
+4.2%
n=19
Jun
58%
+2.8%
n=19
Jul
58%
+2.5%
n=19
Aug
42%
−2.7%
n=19
Sep
53%
+1.6%
n=19
Oct
67%
+4.0%
n=18
Nov
50%
+4.9%
n=18
Dec
67%
+2.4%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | ARCHER TIMOTHY | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $319.26 | $9.6M | −2.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,075,966 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Mayer Bethany | director | Sale | 9,557 @ $314.74 | $3.0M | −31.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,995 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Varadarajan Seshasayee | officer | Sale | 27,480 @ $291.32 | $8.0M | −11.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 205,546 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Varadarajan Seshasayee | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $291.32 | $5.8M | −8.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 205,546 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Varadarajan Seshasayee | officer | Sale | 12,270 @ $291.32 | $3.6M | −5.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 205,546 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Harter Ava | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $302.46 | $1.5M | −10.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 42,462 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | ARCHER TIMOTHY | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $300.00 | $9.0M | −2.7% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,075,966 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | TALWALKAR ABHIJIT Y | director | Sale | 18,282 @ $335.00 | $6.1M | −17.3% of holding | −8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 87,142 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | ARCHER TIMOTHY | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $390.01 | $11.7M | −2.7% of holding | −17.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,075,966 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 8,233 @ $371.17 | $3.1M | −5.1% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 154,005 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 7,700 @ $372.23 | $2.9M | −5.0% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 146,305 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 5,803 @ $367.01 | $2.1M | −3.2% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 175,503 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 5,037 @ $370.27 | $1.9M | −3.0% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 162,238 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 4,198 @ $369.16 | $1.5M | −2.4% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 167,275 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 4,030 @ $368.03 | $1.5M | −2.3% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 171,473 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 3,828 @ $359.08 | $1.4M | −1.9% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 192,584 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 2,708 @ $362.40 | $981K | −1.4% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 187,151 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 2,345 @ $363.33 | $852K | −1.3% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 184,806 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 2,300 @ $364.41 | $838K | −1.2% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 182,506 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 1,906 @ $360.15 | $686K | −1.0% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 190,678 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 1,600 @ $373.09 | $597K | −1.1% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 144,705 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 1,393 @ $357.24 | $498K | −0.7% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 197,512 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $365.16 | $438K | −0.7% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 181,306 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $357.98 | $394K | −0.6% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 196,412 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 819 @ $361.21 | $296K | −0.4% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 189,859 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 300 @ $355.71 | $107K | −0.2% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 198,905 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 6,592 @ $347.86 | $2.3M | −2.8% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 226,207 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 5,717 @ $362.95 | $2.1M | −2.8% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 199,847 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 4,334 @ $348.73 | $1.5M | −1.9% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 221,873 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 3,644 @ $342.91 | $1.2M | −1.5% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 243,762 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 3,442 @ $346.79 | $1.2M | −1.5% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 232,799 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 3,208 @ $344.92 | $1.1M | −1.3% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 239,073 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 2,832 @ $345.84 | $979K | −1.2% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 236,241 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 2,604 @ $362.20 | $943K | −1.3% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 205,564 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 1,880 @ $358.22 | $673K | −0.9% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 211,368 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 1,895 @ $339.75 | $644K | −0.8% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 249,753 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 1,756 @ $361.05 | $634K | −0.8% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 208,168 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 1,653 @ $356.27 | $589K | −0.8% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 214,703 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 1,517 @ $349.79 | $531K | −0.7% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 220,356 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 1,455 @ $357.06 | $520K | −0.7% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 213,248 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 1,461 @ $354.08 | $517K | −0.7% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 217,687 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 1,481 @ $343.96 | $509K | −0.6% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 242,281 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 1,331 @ $355.50 | $473K | −0.6% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 216,356 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 1,277 @ $340.68 | $435K | −0.5% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 248,476 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 1,172 @ $353.52 | $414K | −0.5% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 219,148 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 1,083 @ $338.62 | $367K | −0.4% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 251,648 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 1,070 @ $341.81 | $366K | −0.4% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 247,406 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 974 @ $337.56 | $329K | −0.4% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 252,731 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 780 @ $359.24 | $280K | −0.4% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 210,588 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 664 @ $360.24 | $239K | −0.3% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 209,924 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 642 @ $364.00 | $234K | −0.3% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 199,205 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 36 @ $350.77 | $13K | −0.0% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 220,320 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Fernandes Neil J | officer | Sale | 7,659 @ $309.60 | $2.4M | −11.6% of holding | +24.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 58,470 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Fernandes Neil J | officer | Sale | 18,170 @ $255.14 | $4.6M | −21.6% of holding | +24.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,129 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | Harter Ava | officer | Sale | 6,010 @ $258.66 | $1.6M | −10.1% of holding | +18.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,205 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Bettinger Douglas R | director | Sale | 50,057 @ $224.03 | $11.2M | −4.4% of holding | +2.0% | +17.1% | 1,081,705 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Harter Ava | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $222.66 | $334K | −2.7% of holding | +2.0% | +17.1% | 53,205 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Bettinger Douglas R | director | Sale | 40,329 @ $230.22 | $9.3M | −3.7% of holding | −2.4% | +18.4% | 1,054,012 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Harter Ava | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $232.50 | $930K | −6.8% of holding | −2.4% | +18.4% | 54,705 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Sale | 18,000 @ $230.00 | $4.1M | −6.6% of holding | −4.8% | +20.4% | 253,705 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
190 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | ARCHER TIMOTHY | director | Option exercise | 30,000 | 1,105,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | ARCHER TIMOTHY | director | Option exercise | 30,000 | 31,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Varadarajan Seshasayee | officer | Option exercise | 27,480 | 233,026 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Varadarajan Seshasayee | officer | Option exercise | 12,270 | 217,816 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Varadarajan Seshasayee | officer | Option exercise | 12,270 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Varadarajan Seshasayee | officer | Option exercise | 27,480 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | ARCHER TIMOTHY | director | Option exercise | 30,000 | 1,105,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | ARCHER TIMOTHY | director | Option exercise | 30,000 | 61,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Harter Ava | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,790 | 47,462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | ARCHER TIMOTHY | director | Option exercise | 30,000 | 1,105,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | ARCHER TIMOTHY | director | Option exercise | 30,000 | 91,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Harter Ava | officer | Option exercise | 6,010 | 59,215 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Harter Ava | officer | Option exercise | 6,010 | 6,010 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Vahedi Vahid | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,382 | 276,896 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Harter Ava | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,199 | 58,705 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | TALWALKAR ABHIJIT Y | director | Gift | 4,571 | 105,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Bettinger Douglas R | director | Option exercise | 26,480 | 1,131,762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Bettinger Douglas R | director | Option exercise | 51,270 | 1,105,282 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Bettinger Douglas R | director | Option exercise | 26,480 | 13,240 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Bettinger Douglas R | director | Option exercise | 51,270 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Bettinger Douglas R | director | Option exercise | 37,980 | 1,082,631 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Bettinger Douglas R | director | Option exercise | 16,620 | 1,044,651 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Bettinger Douglas R | director | Option exercise | 11,710 | 1,094,341 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Bettinger Douglas R | director | Option exercise | 11,710 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Bettinger Douglas R | director | Option exercise | 16,620 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Bettinger Douglas R | director | Option exercise | 37,980 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | ARCHER TIMOTHY | director | Withheld for tax | 134,624 | 1,113,288 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Bettinger Douglas R | director | Withheld for tax | 38,136 | 1,038,568 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | LORD PATRICK J | officer | Withheld for tax | 31,406 | 107,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Varadarajan Seshasayee | officer | Withheld for tax | 26,126 | 235,985 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Vahedi Vahid | officer | Withheld for tax | 24,675 | 285,195 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | ARCHER TIMOTHY | director | Withheld for tax | 19,584 | 1,075,618 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Correia Christina | director | Withheld for tax | 11,963 | 59,531 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Fernandes Neil J | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,694 | 90,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | ARCHER TIMOTHY | director | Withheld for tax | 9,975 | 1,103,313 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | ARCHER TIMOTHY | director | Withheld for tax | 8,111 | 1,095,202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Bettinger Douglas R | director | Withheld for tax | 5,525 | 1,028,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Varadarajan Seshasayee | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,047 | 225,198 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | LORD PATRICK J | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,469 | 98,848 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Correia Christina | director | Withheld for tax | 4,306 | 72,490 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2026-06-12 | 2026-06-05 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2026-05-07 | 2026-04-27 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2026-05-07 | 2026-04-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | purchase | 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-12 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $15–50K |
| Tony Wied | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-09 | $250–500K |
| Tony Wied | House | exchange | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-12 | $15–50K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2026-03-06 | 2026-02-26 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2026-03-06 | 2026-02-26 | $1–15K |
| Cleo Fields | House | purchase | 2026-02-24 | 2026-02-03 | $15–50K |
| John Boozman | Senate | sale | 2026-02-15 | 2026-01-08 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.