Issued 2026-09-16 at $65.36 · now $65.36 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LPX has typically landed between $55.38 and $76.62 — a range of −15.3% to +17.2% from the issuance price $65.36.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($65.36) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where LPX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $65.36 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $65.36 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $65.62 (+0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $60.36–$70.87
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $55.38–$76.62
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-24 | −67.1% | −67.1% | +2.6% |
| 2008-09-26 | −66.8% | −67.6% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −66.1% | −68.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-05 | +143.3% | +0.0% | +143.3% |
| 2009-03-06 | +131.5% | −1.8% | +131.5% |
| 2009-07-09 | +114.7% | +0.0% | +114.7% |
4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
72%
+3.8%
n=18
Feb
63%
+0.6%
n=19
Mar
53%
+0.3%
n=19
Apr
47%
+6.9%
n=19
May
63%
+1.8%
n=19
Jun
37%
−3.9%
n=19
Jul
53%
+4.4%
n=19
Aug
53%
+5.2%
n=19
Sep
26%
−3.8%
n=19
Oct
44%
+0.1%
n=18
Nov
83%
+5.6%
n=18
Dec
56%
+2.2%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Bruce Lizanne M | director | Sale | 1,141 @ $78.21 | $89K | −6.0% of holding | −0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,895 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Bruce Lizanne M | director | Sale | 1,300 @ $78.59 | $102K | −7.0% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,160 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | GRASBERGER F NICHOLAS III | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $85.49 | $1.7M | +105.5% of holding | −12.7% | −33.2% | 38,954 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Southern William Bradley | director | Sale | 5,581 @ $86.87 | $485K | −1.2% of holding | −12.1% | −33.2% | 456,138 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-18 | Southern William Bradley | director | Sale | 4,592 @ $88.05 | $404K | −1.0% of holding | −12.1% | −33.2% | 451,546 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-18 | Southern William Bradley | director | Sale | 3,286 @ $88.84 | $292K | −0.7% of holding | −12.1% | −33.2% | 448,260 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-18 | Southern William Bradley | director | Sale | 707 @ $89.61 | $63K | −0.2% of holding | −12.1% | −33.2% | 447,553 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-17 | Southern William Bradley | director | Sale | 9,323 @ $89.48 | $834K | −2.0% of holding | −12.0% | −37.0% | 463,039 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Southern William Bradley | director | Sale | 3,230 @ $88.61 | $286K | −0.7% of holding | −12.0% | −37.0% | 472,362 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Southern William Bradley | director | Sale | 1,320 @ $90.12 | $119K | −0.3% of holding | −12.0% | −37.0% | 461,719 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Southern William Bradley | director | Sale | 293 @ $87.02 | $25K | −0.1% of holding | −12.0% | −37.0% | 475,592 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Southern William Bradley | director | Sale | 9,893 @ $88.80 | $878K | −2.1% of holding | −8.2% | −28.9% | 462,206 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Southern William Bradley | director | Sale | 5,930 @ $87.70 | $520K | −1.2% of holding | −8.2% | −28.9% | 472,099 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Southern William Bradley | director | Sale | 3,406 @ $86.92 | $296K | −0.7% of holding | −8.2% | −28.9% | 478,029 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Southern William Bradley | director | Sale | 726 @ $90.68 | $66K | −0.2% of holding | −8.2% | −28.9% | 460,948 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Southern William Bradley | director | Sale | 700 @ $85.89 | $60K | −0.1% of holding | −8.2% | −28.9% | 481,435 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Southern William Bradley | director | Sale | 532 @ $89.78 | $48K | −0.1% of holding | −8.2% | −28.9% | 461,674 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Southern William Bradley | director | Sale | 65 @ $91.46 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | −8.2% | −28.9% | 460,883 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Southern William Bradley | director | Sale | 7,080 @ $85.16 | $603K | −1.4% of holding | −3.1% | −22.5% | 482,135 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Southern William Bradley | director | Sale | 6,361 @ $93.19 | $593K | −1.3% of holding | −3.8% | −31.1% | 493,232 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Southern William Bradley | director | Sale | 4,017 @ $93.71 | $376K | −0.8% of holding | −3.8% | −31.1% | 489,215 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Southern William Bradley | director | Sale | 3,788 @ $92.21 | $349K | −0.8% of holding | −3.8% | −31.1% | 499,593 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | Southern William Bradley | director | Sale | 48,088 @ $91.66 | $4.4M | −8.7% of holding | +3.0% | −27.2% | 507,190 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | Southern William Bradley | director | Sale | 3,762 @ $92.46 | $348K | −0.7% of holding | +3.0% | −27.2% | 503,428 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | Southern William Bradley | director | Sale | 3,449 @ $90.80 | $313K | −0.6% of holding | +3.0% | −27.2% | 555,278 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | Southern William Bradley | director | Sale | 47 @ $93.39 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | +3.0% | −27.2% | 503,381 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Southern William Bradley | director | Sale | 1,217 @ $85.33 | $104K | −0.2% of holding | +8.1% | −18.3% | 558,691 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Southern William Bradley | director | Sale | 101 @ $86.04 | $9K | −0.0% of holding | +8.1% | −18.3% | 558,590 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Southern William Bradley | director | Sale | 42,514 @ $86.25 | $3.7M | −7.1% of holding | +7.1% | −21.1% | 559,908 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | Macadam Stephen E. | director | Purchase | 3,200 @ $78.06 | $250K | +8.4% of holding | +5.4% | −18.6% | 41,149 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | HORTON OZEY K JR | director | Sale | 500 @ $101.00 | $51K | −1.7% of holding | −7.6% | −12.4% | 29,728 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-11 | Bruce Lizanne M | director | Sale | 1,179 @ $89.52 | $106K | −5.9% of holding | −2.0% | −16.5% | 18,838 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Bruce Lizanne M | director | Sale | 1,968 @ $113.71 | $224K | −9.6% of holding | +2.3% | −22.2% | 18,513 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Bruce Lizanne M | director | Sale | 532 @ $112.70 | $60K | −2.5% of holding | +2.3% | −22.2% | 20,481 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
86 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Howald Aaron | officer | Award / grant | 9,083 | 34,338 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Hamill Anthony | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,064 | 23,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Bruce Lizanne M | director | Other acquisition | 378 | 17,517 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | GRASBERGER F NICHOLAS III | director | Award / grant | 1,863 | 40,838 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Silberhorn Ty R | director | Award / grant | 1,863 | 3,698 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Bayardo Jose A | director | Award / grant | 1,863 | 9,616 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Macadam Stephen E. | director | Award / grant | 1,863 | 43,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | BARRETT KELLY HEFNER | director | Award / grant | 1,863 | 3,675 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ribieras JeanMichel | director | Award / grant | 1,863 | 3,697 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Bruce Lizanne M | director | Award / grant | 1,863 | 19,029 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Ringblom Jason Paul | director | Withheld for tax | 1,198 | 139,791 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Southern William Bradley | director | Withheld for tax | 2,361 | 475,885 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Haughie Alan | officer | Withheld for tax | 887 | 143,332 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Ringblom Jason Paul | director | Withheld for tax | 709 | 140,854 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Daniel Nicole C | officer | Withheld for tax | 592 | 46,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Sichling Craig M | officer | Withheld for tax | 173 | 8,969 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Davis Leslie E | officer | Withheld for tax | 115 | 4,066 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Southern William Bradley | director | Withheld for tax | 16,475 | 478,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Haughie Alan | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,225 | 144,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Ringblom Jason Paul | director | Withheld for tax | 3,019 | 141,563 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Daniel Nicole C | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,512 | 46,670 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Sichling Craig M | officer | Withheld for tax | 691 | 9,142 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Davis Leslie E | officer | Withheld for tax | 124 | 4,181 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Davis Leslie E | officer | Award / grant | 419 | 4,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Davis Leslie E | officer | Award / grant | 1,385 | 3,885 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Daniel Nicole C | officer | Award / grant | 3,843 | 48,182 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Ringblom Jason Paul | director | Award / grant | 7,672 | 144,582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Daniel Nicole C | officer | Award / grant | 5,325 | 44,339 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Haughie Alan | officer | Award / grant | 8,196 | 147,444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Haughie Alan | officer | Award / grant | 7,988 | 139,248 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Hamill Anthony | officer | Award / grant | 6,710 | 24,751 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Sichling Craig M | officer | Award / grant | 4,260 | 8,230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Ringblom Jason Paul | director | Award / grant | 19,171 | 136,910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Sichling Craig M | officer | Award / grant | 1,603 | 9,833 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Southern William Bradley | director | Award / grant | 41,852 | 494,721 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Southern William Bradley | director | Withheld for tax | 3,919 | 452,869 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Haughie Alan | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,221 | 131,260 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Ringblom Jason Paul | director | Withheld for tax | 1,143 | 117,739 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Daniel Nicole C | officer | Withheld for tax | 572 | 39,014 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Sichling Craig M | officer | Withheld for tax | 224 | 3,970 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-05 | $50–100K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-03-10 | 2026-02-27 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2025-12-09 | 2025-11-18 | $15–50K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-31 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-10-22 | 2025-09-25 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-09-11 | 2025-08-21 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-09-11 | 2025-08-21 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-17 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-11 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2025-06-09 | 2025-05-15 | $50–100K |
| Tommy Tuberville | Senate | sale | 2023-11-16 | 2023-10-11 | $1–15K |
| Tommy Tuberville | Senate | sale | 2023-11-16 | 2023-10-11 | $100–250K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.