LPTH · TickerCove

LPTHLightPath Technologies, Inc.Technology · Hardware, Equipment & Partsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $9.39 · now $9.39 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LPTH has typically landed between $7.01 and $13.56 — a range of −25.3% to +44.4% from the issuance price $9.39.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($9.39) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$9.39 · 27% of range

$6.09 low$18.15 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.6%

typical move · IQR 26.9%

−25.3%worst (p90)+44.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where LPTH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $9.39 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $9.39 (+0.0%)
typical $9.45 (+0.6%)
middle 50% $8.18–$10.71
90% range $7.01–$13.56

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2009-01-23	−58.1%	−58.1%	+0.0%
2020-08-05	−54.6%	−54.6%	+0.0%
2020-08-04	−54.5%	−54.5%	+0.0%
3 best
2009-05-14	+178.0%	+0.0%	+178.0%
2020-04-03	+145.1%	+0.0%	+145.1%
2020-03-23	+141.2%	+0.0%	+144.7%

5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

65%

+7.8%

n=20

Feb

50%

+4.3%

n=20

Mar

25%

−5.0%

n=20

Apr

30%

+3.0%

n=20

May

50%

+3.0%

n=20

Jun

35%

+8.3%

n=20

Jul

50%

+7.6%

n=20

Aug

45%

+2.2%

n=20

Sep

30%

−0.9%

n=20

Oct

40%

+0.4%

n=20

Nov

40%

−6.4%

n=20

Dec

55%

+10.0%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-03	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Sale	3,571,400 @ $14.00	$50.0M	−54.9% of holding	−9.6%	not yet — horizon still open	2,934,828	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-18	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Sale	55,284 @ $12.32	$681K	−1.8% of holding	+17.1%	not yet — horizon still open	2,934,828	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-14	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Sale	165,000 @ $12.16	$2.0M	−5.2% of holding	+22.5%	not yet — horizon still open	2,990,112	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-13	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Sale	45,000 @ $12.29	$553K	−1.4% of holding	+17.7%	not yet — horizon still open	3,155,112	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-12	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Sale	83,052 @ $12.25	$1.0M	−2.5% of holding	+28.2%	not yet — horizon still open	3,200,112	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-27	Rubin Shmuel	director	Purchase	180 @ $9.70	$2K	+0.1% of holding	+21.6%	not yet — horizon still open	260,844	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-25	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Sale	302,352 @ $12.31	$3.7M	−8.4% of holding	+25.9%	not yet — horizon still open	3,283,164	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-24	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Sale	54,557 @ $12.06	$658K	−1.9% of holding	+14.7%	not yet — horizon still open	2,845,516	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-18	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Sale	16,000 @ $12.00	$192K	−0.5% of holding	+13.7%	not yet — horizon still open	2,900,073	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Sale	104,454 @ $12.01	$1.3M	−3.5% of holding	+19.5%	−34.7%	2,916,073	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-04	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Sale	55,000 @ $12.09	$665K	−1.8% of holding	−2.9%	−31.4%	3,020,527	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-03	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Sale	381,004 @ $12.18	$4.6M	−11.0% of holding	−11.3%	−33.5%	3,075,527	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Sale	238,991 @ $12.03	$2.9M	−6.5% of holding	−11.5%	−28.6%	3,456,531	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-25	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Sale	300,092 @ $12.18	$3.7M	−9.2% of holding	+0.1%	+0.9%	2,955,522	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-24	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Sale	131,281 @ $12.02	$1.6M	−3.9% of holding	+3.8%	+3.0%	3,255,514	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-23	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Sale	6,500 @ $12.01	$78K	−0.2% of holding	+10.0%	+5.6%	3,386,895	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-20	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Sale	376,762 @ $12.15	$4.6M	−10.0% of holding	+0.0%	+8.5%	3,393,395	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-20	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Sale	218,811 @ $13.18	$2.9M	−5.5% of holding	+0.0%	+8.5%	3,770,157	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-05	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Sale	770,321 @ $11.72	$9.0M	−22.0% of holding	−19.4%	−0.6%	2,728,968	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-25	Rubin Shmuel	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $2.45	$2K	+0.4% of holding	−9.3%	+95.8%	227,722	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-20	Crider Kimberly Anne	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $2.51	$3K	+2.3% of holding	−2.6%	+45.1%	44,796	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-19	Rubin Shmuel	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $2.56	$3K	+0.4% of holding	−10.0%	+23.9%	226,722	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

79 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-02	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Conversion	3,571,400	6,506,228	Form 4
2026-06-02	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Conversion	7,679	6,493	Form 4
2026-03-25	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Conversion	740,000	3,585,516	Form 4
2026-03-25	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Conversion	1,591	14,172	Form 4
2026-03-25	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Conversion	1,591	14,172	Form 4
2026-03-25	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Conversion	1,591	14,172	Form 4
2026-03-25	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Conversion	1,591	14,172	Form 4
2026-03-25	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Conversion	1,591	14,172	Form 4
2026-03-02	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Conversion	740,000	3,695,522	Form 4
2026-03-02	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Conversion	1,591	15,727	Form 4
2026-02-20	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Conversion	1,260,000	3,988,968	Form 4
2026-02-20	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Conversion	2,709	17,354	Form 4
2026-02-02	Miranda Albert	officer	Option exercise	12,103	78,835	Form 4
2026-02-02	Miranda Albert	officer	Option exercise	12,103	78,835	Form 4
2026-02-02	Rubin Shmuel	director	Option exercise	29,011	260,664	Form 4
2026-02-02	Rubin Shmuel	director	Option exercise	29,011	260,664	Form 4
2026-01-05	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Exercise	3,499,289	3,499,289	Form 4
2026-01-05	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Exercise	3,499,289	0	Form 4
2025-12-31	North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP	director	Disposition	1,860,465	0	Form 4
2025-12-19	Rubin Shmuel	director	Gift	13,020	231,653	Form 4
2025-11-20	ELLIS THOMAS B	director	Option exercise	6,968	6,968	Form 4
2025-11-20	Miranda Albert	officer	Option exercise	4,137	66,732	Form 4
2025-11-20	Miranda Albert	officer	Option exercise	4,137	66,732	Form 4
2025-11-20	Crider Kimberly Anne	director	Option exercise	19,355	69,151	Form 4
2025-11-20	Rubin Shmuel	director	Option exercise	9,529	254,202	Form 4
2025-11-20	CREVISTON STEVEN E	director	Option exercise	19,355	171,412	Form 4
2025-11-20	Crider Kimberly Anne	director	Option exercise	19,355	69,151	Form 4
2025-11-20	ELLIS THOMAS B	director	Option exercise	6,968	6,968	Form 4
2025-11-20	CREVISTON STEVEN E	director	Option exercise	19,355	171,412	Form 4
2025-11-20	Rubin Shmuel	director	Option exercise	9,529	254,202	Form 4
2025-11-18	Crider Kimberly Anne	director	Award / grant	8,824	8,824	Form 4
2025-11-18	Peck Darcie	director	Award / grant	8,824	8,824	Form 4
2025-11-18	Rubin Shmuel	director	Award / grant	13,127	13,127	Form 4
2025-11-18	Caylor Mark A	director	Award / grant	8,824	8,824	Form 4
2025-11-18	Crider Kimberly Anne	director	Award / grant	8,824	8,824	Form 4
2025-11-18	CREVISTON STEVEN E	director	Award / grant	8,824	8,824	Form 4
2025-11-18	ELLIS THOMAS B	director	Award / grant	8,824	8,824	Form 4
2025-11-18	Caylor Mark A	director	Award / grant	8,824	8,824	Form 4
2025-11-18	Faris M. Scott	director	Award / grant	8,824	8,824	Form 4
2025-11-18	Menaker Joseph	director	Award / grant	8,824	8,824	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i