LOWLowe's Companies, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Home Improvementas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $194.10 · now $194.10 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LOW has typically landed between $173.77 and $216.18 — a range of −10.5% to +11.4% from the issuance price $194.10.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($194.10) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where LOW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $194.1 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$173.77worst · -10.5%$216.18best · +11.4%
  • now $194.1 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $194.78 (+0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $184.09–$205.48
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $173.77–$216.18
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−47.6%−48.6%+0.0%
2020-02-18−47.2%−47.2%+2.7%
2020-02-21−45.9%−48.1%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+49.3%+0.0%+52.4%
2009-03-06+44.8%+0.0%+44.8%
2009-03-05+42.5%−0.2%+44.1%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$116.4B
market cap
$11.83
EPS (TTM)
17.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-19
next earnings
Revenue$86.3B
'20'25
Net income$6.7B
'20'25
Free cash flow$7.7B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr7.7%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-67.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr-4.51
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $194.10$148.77$325.16
  • DCF (intrinsic)$160.94
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$281.81
  • Analyst target · range $232.00–$313.00$265.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$194.10

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+0.6%
n=18
Feb
42%
−0.3%
n=19
Mar
53%
+1.3%
n=19
Apr
63%
+2.6%
n=19
May
37%
−1.7%
n=19
Jun
42%
−1.0%
n=19
Jul
68%
+2.9%
n=19
Aug
58%
+3.8%
n=19
Sep
42%
+0.3%
n=19
Oct
50%
−0.1%
n=18
Nov
78%
+4.8%
n=18
Dec
67%
+3.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$284$1942026-06-18: 1 insider sale, $560K — Vagell Margrethe R2026-06-17: 1 insider sale, $2.1M — PRYOR JULIETTE WILLIAMS2026-06-16: 1 insider sale, $3.1M — Dupre Janice2026-03-04: 1 insider sale, $2.7M — Vance Quonta D2026-01-09: 3 insider sales, $4.7M — Ellison Marvin R …2025-11-24: 1 insider purchase, $231K — Simkins Lawrence2025-09-11: 2 insider sales, $11.9M — McFarland Joseph Michael …2025-09-05: 1 insider sale, $2.2M — Sink Brandon J2025-08-26: 1 insider sale, $239K — PRYOR JULIETTE WILLIAMS2025-08-20: 6 insider sales, $10.6M — Ellison Marvin R …2025-08: 7 open-market sales, $10.8M2025-09: 3 open-market sales, $14.1M2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $231K2026-01: 3 open-market sales, $4.7M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $2.7M2026-06: 3 open-market sales, $5.8M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Vagell Margrethe R — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector PRYOR JULIETTE WILLIAMS — Sale on 2026-06-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Dupre Janice — Sale on 2026-06-16, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Vance Quonta D — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ellison Marvin R — Sale on 2026-01-09, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Ellison Marvin R — Sale on 2026-01-09, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Ellison Marvin R — Sale on 2026-01-09, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Simkins Lawrence — Purchase on 2025-11-24, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer McFarland Joseph Michael — Sale on 2025-09-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer McFarland Joseph Michael — Sale on 2025-09-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Sink Brandon J — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed 3 days after the tradedirector PRYOR JULIETTE WILLIAMS — Sale on 2025-08-26, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ellison Marvin R — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ellison Marvin R — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ellison Marvin R — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ellison Marvin R — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ellison Marvin R — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ellison Marvin R — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-18Vagell Margrethe RofficerSale2,500 @ $223.83$560K−11.0% of holding−8.6%not yet — horizon still open20,220Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-17PRYOR JULIETTE WILLIAMSdirectorSale9,330 @ $224.81$2.1M−36.6% of holding−6.2%not yet — horizon still open16,142Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-16Dupre JaniceofficerSale14,150 @ $221.90$3.1M−26.2% of holding−6.1%not yet — horizon still open39,785Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-04Vance Quonta DofficerSale10,369 @ $257.54$2.7M−32.4% of holding−6.7%−34.2%21,650Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-09Ellison Marvin RdirectorSale7,323 @ $261.39$1.9M−3.0% of holding+7.3%−30.5%234,567Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-09Ellison Marvin RdirectorSale7,153 @ $260.30$1.9M−2.9% of holding+7.3%−30.5%241,890Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-09Ellison Marvin RdirectorSale3,524 @ $262.51$925K−1.5% of holding+7.3%−30.5%231,043Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-24Simkins LawrencedirectorPurchase1,000 @ $231.06$231K+100.0% of holding+2.7%−17.3%2,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-11McFarland Joseph MichaelofficerSale41,590 @ $272.57$11.3M−37.7% of holding−14.3%−13.2%68,786Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-11McFarland Joseph MichaelofficerSale2,220 @ $273.18$606K−3.2% of holding−14.3%−13.2%66,566Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-05Sink Brandon JofficerSale8,192 @ $268.58$2.2M−27.5% of holding−14.5%−11.8%21,603Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-26PRYOR JULIETTE WILLIAMSdirectorSale929 @ $257.20$239K−3.0% of holding−3.4%−4.1%30,099Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-20Ellison Marvin RdirectorSale18,060 @ $266.63$4.8M−6.8% of holding−1.2%+1.4%249,043Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-20Ellison Marvin RdirectorSale7,241 @ $260.96$1.9M−2.5% of holding−1.2%+1.4%281,802Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-20Ellison Marvin RdirectorSale7,009 @ $262.33$1.8M−2.5% of holding−1.2%+1.4%269,385Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-20Ellison Marvin RdirectorSale5,408 @ $261.88$1.4M−1.9% of holding−1.2%+1.4%276,394Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-20Ellison Marvin RdirectorSale1,601 @ $264.49$423K−0.6% of holding−1.2%+1.4%267,784Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-20Ellison Marvin RdirectorSale681 @ $265.50$181K−0.3% of holding−1.2%+1.4%267,103Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-10Dupre JaniceofficerSale1,560 @ $224.38$350K−4.1% of holding−4.0%−4.9%36,350Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-03PRYOR JULIETTE WILLIAMSdirectorSale1,130 @ $227.50$257K−3.4% of holding−5.4%−7.6%31,898Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-20Simkins LawrencedirectorPurchase1,000 @ $245.53$246Kownership Δ n/a+3.5%−14.0%1,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

169 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15Vance Quonta DofficerWithheld for tax84825,326Form 4
2026-09-15Wilson Jennifer ElizabethofficerAward / grant2,8919,157Form 4
2026-09-15Filipponi Adam DofficerAward / grant3,2129,927Form 4
2026-09-15Vance Quonta DofficerAward / grant2,00927,335Form 4
2026-09-15Godbole SeemantinidirectorAward / grant39649,449Form 4
2026-07-09DREILING RICHARD WdirectorAward / grant25819,648Form 4
2026-07-09Simkins LawrencedirectorAward / grant117972Form 4
2026-07-09ROGERS BRIAN CdirectorAward / grant1175,687Form 4
2026-07-09DOUGLAS LAURIE ZdirectorAward / grant704,899Form 4
2026-07-09Taylor ColleendirectorAward / grant591,433Form 4
2026-06-17PRYOR JULIETTE WILLIAMSdirectorGift67015,472Form 4
2026-06-16Dupre JaniceofficerOption exercise5,50053,935Form 4
2026-06-16Dupre JaniceofficerOption exercise4,00048,435Form 4
2026-06-16Dupre JaniceofficerOption exercise2,20044,435Form 4
2026-06-16Dupre JaniceofficerOption exercise2,45042,235Form 4
2026-06-16Dupre JaniceofficerOption exercise4,000845Form 4
2026-06-16Dupre JaniceofficerGift47639,309Form 4
2026-06-16Dupre JaniceofficerOption exercise2,4500Form 4
2026-06-16Dupre JaniceofficerOption exercise2,2000Form 4
2026-06-16Dupre JaniceofficerOption exercise5,5003,324Form 4
2026-06-15PRYOR JULIETTE WILLIAMSdirectorWithheld for tax9,76825,472Form 4
2026-06-10Vagell Margrethe RofficerGift45522,720Form 4
2026-05-29Baxter Scott HdirectorAward / grant1,0034,979Form 4
2026-05-29COCHRAN SANDRA BdirectorAward / grant1,00317,121Form 4
2026-05-29DOUGLAS LAURIE ZdirectorAward / grant1,00319,813Form 4
2026-05-29DREILING RICHARD WdirectorAward / grant1,00340,948Form 4
2026-05-29Gupta NavdeepdirectorAward / grant1,0033,062Form 4
2026-05-29Stone West Mary EdirectorAward / grant1,0036,304Form 4
2026-05-29Taylor ColleendirectorAward / grant1,0035,314Form 4
2026-05-29Simkins LawrencedirectorAward / grant1,0033,062Form 4
2026-05-29ROGERS BRIAN CdirectorAward / grant1,00312,231Form 4
2026-05-29SCOTT BERTRAM LdirectorAward / grant1,00317,121Form 4
2026-05-29Alvarez RalphdirectorAward / grant1,00342,914Form 4
2026-04-01Ellison Marvin RdirectorWithheld for tax7,875223,168Form 4
2026-04-01McFarland Joseph MichaelofficerWithheld for tax2,31464,252Form 4
2026-04-01Boltz William PofficerWithheld for tax2,23745,699Form 4
2026-04-01Sink Brandon JofficerWithheld for tax1,51818,800Form 4
2026-04-01Godbole SeemantinidirectorWithheld for tax1,47739,850Form 4
2026-04-01Dupre JaniceofficerWithheld for tax95934,542Form 4
2026-04-01Vance Quonta DofficerWithheld for tax32721,323Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-02$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-13$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-30$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-10$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-23$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.