Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.49 · now $2.49 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LODE has typically landed between $1.65 and $3.77 — a range of −33.9% to +51.5% from the issuance price $2.49.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,999 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.49) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where LODE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.49 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.49 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.32 (-6.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.9–$2.75
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.65–$3.77
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2007-04-23 | −60.9% | −60.9% | +17.4% |
| 2007-03-30 | −59.5% | −59.5% | +0.0% |
| 2006-11-10 | −59.1% | −59.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2007-10-11 | +850.0% | −16.7% | +850.0% |
| 2007-10-10 | +850.0% | −16.7% | +850.0% |
| 2007-10-12 | +780.0% | +0.0% | +1040.0% |
4,999 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | DEGASPERIS CORRADO | director | Purchase | 7,250 @ $3.04 | $22K | +4.0% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 188,750 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Pei Steven Yu-Tsung | director | Purchase | 150,000 @ $4.10 | $616K | +8.7% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,868,323 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Pei Steven Yu-Tsung | director | Purchase | 100,000 @ $4.09 | $409K | +6.2% of holding | +3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,718,323 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Pei Steven Yu-Tsung | director | Purchase | 180,000 @ $3.93 | $707K | +10.5% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,890,980 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-03 | SPENCE ROBERT | director | Purchase | 24,410 @ $3.97 | $97K | +305.4% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,403 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-03 | DEGASPERIS CORRADO | director | Purchase | 10,682 @ $3.98 | $42K | +6.3% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 181,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-03 | Drozdoff Leo M | director | Purchase | 7,000 @ $4.11 | $29K | +3.8% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 193,474 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-02 | Pei Steven Yu-Tsung | director | Purchase | 153,823 @ $4.10 | $631K | +9.9% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,710,980 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Pei Steven Yu-Tsung | director | Purchase | 26,177 @ $4.14 | $108K | +1.7% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,557,157 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Pei Steven Yu-Tsung | director | Purchase | 79,559 @ $3.42 | $272K | +5.5% of holding | +22.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,530,980 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-13 | Pei Steven Yu-Tsung | director | Purchase | 345,000 @ $3.38 | $1.2M | +31.2% of holding | +19.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,451,421 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | DEGASPERIS CORRADO | director | Purchase | 35,000 @ $2.89 | $101K | +25.8% of holding | +40.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 170,818 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-30 | Drozdoff Leo M | director | Purchase | 28,000 @ $3.00 | $84K | +18.6% of holding | −3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 178,481 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Merrill Judd | officer | Purchase | 3,700 @ $3.08 | $11K | +725.5% of holding | −3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,210 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
26 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | COLVIN DONALD A | director | Award / grant | 5,942 | 13,935 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Slanina Kristin | director | Award / grant | 5,942 | 116,951 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | SPENCE ROBERT | director | Award / grant | 5,942 | 38,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Pei Steven Yu-Tsung | director | Award / grant | 5,942 | 13,935 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | NANCE WILLIAM JOHN | director | Award / grant | 5,942 | 127,616 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Marting Walter A. Jr | director | Award / grant | 5,942 | 126,916 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Drozdoff Leo M | director | Award / grant | 5,942 | 199,416 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Bieberly Matthew J | officer | Award / grant | 92,234 | 92,234 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Bieberly Matthew J | officer | Award / grant | 36,838 | 36,838 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | DEGASPERIS CORRADO | director | Award / grant | 619,059 | 619,059 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | DEGASPERIS CORRADO | director | Award / grant | 247,252 | 247,252 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Merrill Judd | officer | Award / grant | 304,449 | 304,449 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Merrill Judd | officer | Award / grant | 121,597 | 121,597 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Pei Steven Yu-Tsung | director | Award / grant | 7,993 | 7,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-09 | Salinas Mayaguez J | director | Award / grant | 7,993 | 97,699 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | SPENCE ROBERT | director | Award / grant | 7,993 | 7,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | COLVIN DONALD A | director | Award / grant | 7,993 | 7,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Slanina Kristin | director | Award / grant | 7,993 | 111,009 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Marting Walter A. Jr | director | Award / grant | 7,993 | 120,974 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | NANCE WILLIAM JOHN | director | Award / grant | 7,993 | 121,674 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Drozdoff Leo M | director | Award / grant | 7,993 | 186,474 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Marting Walter A. Jr | director | Award / grant | 90,481 | 112,981 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Slanina Kristin | director | Award / grant | 103,016 | 103,016 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Salinas Mayaguez J | director | Award / grant | 89,262 | 89,706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | NANCE WILLIAM JOHN | director | Award / grant | 90,481 | 113,681 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Drozdoff Leo M | director | Award / grant | 90,481 | 150,481 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.