LOCOEl Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Restaurantsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $14.53 · now $14.53 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LOCO has typically landed between $12.71 and $16.94 — a range of −12.5% to +16.6% from the issuance price $14.53.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,033 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-07-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($14.53) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where LOCO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $14.53 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$12.71worst · -12.5%$16.94best · +16.6%
  • now $14.53 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $14.38 (-1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $13.54–$15.23
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $12.71–$16.94
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,033 windows spanning 2014-07-25 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−54.5%−54.5%+2.6%
2020-02-20−48.3%−55.7%+0.0%
2020-02-14−46.9%−46.9%+6.7%
3 best
2020-04-01+68.1%−3.7%+68.1%
2020-04-03+59.4%+0.0%+74.6%
2020-03-18+59.1%+0.0%+65.3%

3,033 overlapping windows · 2014-07-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+5.1%
n=12
Feb
25%
−2.2%
n=12
Mar
33%
−5.7%
n=12
Apr
42%
+2.0%
n=12
May
50%
+1.4%
n=12
Jun
75%
+4.8%
n=12
Jul
50%
+2.8%
n=12
Aug
38%
−5.3%
n=13
Sep
31%
−2.5%
n=13
Oct
33%
−0.4%
n=12
Nov
67%
+4.6%
n=12
Dec
33%
−2.3%
n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$17$92026-08-07: 2 insider sales, $19K — BIGLARI, SARDAR …2026-08-05: 2 insider sales, $1.4M — BIGLARI, SARDAR …2026-08-03: 2 insider sales, $335K — BIGLARI, SARDAR …2026-07-30: 2 insider sales, $9K — BIGLARI, SARDAR …2026-07-29: 2 insider sales, $110K — BIGLARI, SARDAR …2026-07-17: 1 insider sale, $184K — BIGLARI, SARDAR2026-07-16: 1 insider sale, $46K — BIGLARI, SARDAR2026-07-15: 1 insider sale, $109K — BIGLARI, SARDAR2026-07-14: 1 insider sale, $20K — BIGLARI, SARDAR2026-07-13: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — BIGLARI, SARDAR2026-07-02: 1 insider sale, $161K — BIGLARI, SARDAR2026-07-01: 1 insider sale, $2.3M — BIGLARI, SARDAR2026-06-30: 1 insider sale, $382K — BIGLARI, SARDAR2026-06-29: 1 insider sale, $1.7M — BIGLARI, SARDAR2026-06-26: 1 insider sale, $1.7M — BIGLARI, SARDAR2026-06: 3 open-market sales, $3.7M2026-07: 11 open-market sales, $4.2M2026-08: 6 open-market sales, $1.7M↑ buys↓ salesdirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradedirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradedirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed same daydirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed same daydirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Sale on 2026-07-30, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Sale on 2026-07-30, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Sale on 2026-07-29, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Sale on 2026-07-29, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Sale on 2026-07-17, filed 4 days after the tradedirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Sale on 2026-07-16, filed same daydirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Sale on 2026-07-14, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Sale on 2026-07-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Sale on 2026-07-02, filed 4 days after the tradedirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Sale on 2026-07-01, filed 5 days after the tradedirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Sale on 2026-06-30, filed same daydirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Sale on 2026-06-29, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Sale on 2026-06-26, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-07BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorSale550 @ $17.06$9K−0.2% of holding+1.0%not yet — horizon still open315,118Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-07BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorSale550 @ $17.06$9K−0.8% of holding+1.0%not yet — horizon still open65,872Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-05BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorSale40,000 @ $16.90$676K−37.6% of holding−12.2%not yet — horizon still open66,422Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-05BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorSale40,000 @ $16.90$676K−11.2% of holding−12.2%not yet — horizon still open315,668Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-03BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorSale10,000 @ $16.73$167K−8.6% of holding−10.0%not yet — horizon still open106,422Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-03BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorSale10,000 @ $16.73$167K−2.7% of holding−10.0%not yet — horizon still open355,668Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-30BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorSale273 @ $16.70$5K−0.1% of holding−10.8%not yet — horizon still open365,668Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-30BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorSale273 @ $16.70$5K−0.2% of holding−10.8%not yet — horizon still open116,422Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-29BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorSale3,306 @ $16.71$55K−0.9% of holding−13.8%not yet — horizon still open365,941Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-29BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorSale3,305 @ $16.71$55K−2.8% of holding−13.8%not yet — horizon still open116,695Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-17BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorSale11,000 @ $16.71$184K−0.3% of holding−10.8%not yet — horizon still open3,538,961Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-16BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorSale2,749 @ $16.70$46K−0.1% of holding−9.5%not yet — horizon still open3,549,961Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-15BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorSale6,533 @ $16.71$109K−0.2% of holding−9.1%not yet — horizon still open3,552,710Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-14BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorSale1,211 @ $16.73$20K−0.0% of holding−11.0%not yet — horizon still open3,559,243Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-13BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorSale75,000 @ $16.74$1.3M−2.1% of holding−14.3%not yet — horizon still open3,560,454Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-02BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorSale9,525 @ $16.92$161K−0.3% of holding−2.5%not yet — horizon still open3,635,454Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-01BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorSale132,421 @ $17.27$2.3M−3.5% of holding−4.5%not yet — horizon still open3,644,979Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-06-30BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorSale22,600 @ $16.91$382K−0.6% of holding−2.1%not yet — horizon still open3,777,400Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-29BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorSale100,000 @ $16.58$1.7M−2.6% of holding+1.6%not yet — horizon still open3,800,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-26BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorSale100,000 @ $16.75$1.7M−2.5% of holding−4.7%not yet — horizon still open3,900,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-06Buller MarkdirectorSale11,363 @ $11.00$125K−22.7% of holding−2.7%−12.9%38,801Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-08-08Buller MarkdirectorSale10,500 @ $11.76$123K−17.1% of holding+7.1%−11.8%51,043Form 4 · filed 242 days after the trade
2024-05-15Borgese Samuel N.directorSale1,140 @ $11.01$13K−5.3% of holding−8.4%+2.6%20,250Form 4 · filed 327 days after the trade
2024-05-13Borgese Samuel N.directorSale1,898 @ $10.96$21K−8.2% of holding−6.0%+5.1%21,390Form 4 · filed 329 days after the trade
2024-05-09Borgese Samuel N.directorSale9,934 @ $10.48$104K−29.9% of holding−4.0%+8.0%23,288Form 4 · filed 333 days after the trade
2024-05-08Borgese Samuel N.directorSale1,000 @ $10.19$10K−2.9% of holding−3.2%+9.7%33,222Form 4 · filed 334 days after the trade
2023-05-26Borgese Samuel N.directorSale4,643 @ $9.30$43K−11.9% of holding−6.9%−17.5%34,222Form 4 · filed 682 days after the trade
2023-01-18Borgese Samuel N.directorSale20,011 @ $11.06$221K−34.0% of holding+8.2%−21.5%38,865Form 4 · filed 810 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

42 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-23Fils IraofficerWithheld for tax7,213115,600Form 4
2026-05-29Williams Elizabeth GoodmandirectorWithheld for tax10,523248,091Form 4
2026-05-29Fils IraofficerWithheld for tax2,144122,813Form 4
2026-05-09Fils IraofficerWithheld for tax2,476124,957Form 4
2026-03-17Wright Robert D.directorAward / grant8,2588,258Form 4
2026-03-17Williams Elizabeth GoodmandirectorAward / grant53,804258,614Form 4
2026-03-17Williams Elizabeth GoodmandirectorAward / grant116,911116,911Form 4
2026-03-17Taylor Joseph GdirectorAward / grant8,25816,895Form 4
2026-03-17GARRIDO FRANKdirectorAward / grant8,2588,258Form 4
2026-03-17Gonzalez DeborahdirectorAward / grant8,25841,126Form 4
2026-03-17Faginas Cody NancydirectorAward / grant8,25841,126Form 4
2026-03-17DAVILA TANAdirectorAward / grant8,2588,258Form 4
2026-03-17BABB DOUGLAS JdirectorAward / grant12,01263,635Form 4
2026-03-17Fils IraofficerAward / grant15,015127,433Form 4
2026-03-17Fils IraofficerAward / grant32,62632,626Form 4
2026-03-11Williams Elizabeth GoodmandirectorWithheld for tax12,272204,810Form 4
2026-03-11Fils IraofficerWithheld for tax2,296112,418Form 4
2025-12-31Williams Elizabeth GoodmandirectorWithheld for tax7,682217,082Form 4
2025-12-31Williams Elizabeth GoodmandirectorAward / grant42,818224,764Form 4
2025-08-23Fils IraofficerWithheld for tax4,784115,837Form 4
2025-05-29Williams Elizabeth GoodmandirectorWithheld for tax10,924224,764Form 4
2025-05-29Hollandsworth MariaofficerWithheld for tax2,780106,025Form 4
2025-05-29Fils IraofficerWithheld for tax2,139120,621Form 4
2025-05-15Hollandsworth MariaofficerWithheld for tax8,095108,805Form 4
2025-05-09Fils IraofficerWithheld for tax2,469122,760Form 4
2025-05-09Hollandsworth MariaofficerWithheld for tax1,235116,900Form 4
2025-03-11Hollandsworth MariaofficerAward / grant11,996118,135Form 4
2025-03-11Williams Elizabeth GoodmandirectorWithheld for tax4,033235,688Form 4
2025-03-11Williams Elizabeth GoodmandirectorAward / grant68,778239,721Form 4
2025-03-11Williams Elizabeth GoodmandirectorAward / grant145,368145,368Form 4
2025-03-11FLOYD WILLIAM RdirectorAward / grant13,43674,209Form 4
2025-03-11Fils IraofficerAward / grant19,194125,229Form 4
2025-03-11Fils IraofficerAward / grant40,56840,568Form 4
2025-03-11Taylor Joseph GdirectorAward / grant8,6378,637Form 4
2025-03-11BABB DOUGLAS JdirectorAward / grant8,63751,623Form 4
2025-03-11Borgese Samuel N.directorAward / grant8,63740,261Form 4
2025-03-11Buller MarkdirectorAward / grant8,63751,043Form 4
2025-03-11Gonzalez DeborahdirectorAward / grant8,63732,868Form 4
2025-03-11Hollandsworth MariaofficerAward / grant25,35525,355Form 4
2025-03-11Faginas Cody NancydirectorAward / grant8,63732,868Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.