LOARLoar Holdings Inc.Industrials · Aerospace & Defenseas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $64.67 · now $64.67 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LOAR has typically landed between $53.93 and $80.25 — a range of −16.6% to +24.1% from the issuance price $64.67.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

579 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-04-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($64.67) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where LOAR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $64.67 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$53.93worst · -16.6%$80.25best · +24.1%
  • now $64.67 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $65.45 (+1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $60.29–$70.61
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $53.93–$80.25
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 579 windows spanning 2024-04-25 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-03-04−24.4%−26.8%+0.0%
2026-02-27−21.9%−21.9%+6.6%
2024-12-06−21.0%−21.0%+0.0%
3 best
2025-03-28+46.4%+0.0%+46.9%
2025-03-26+45.5%−0.9%+45.5%
2025-03-27+41.1%−2.6%+43.0%

579 overlapping windows · 2024-04-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
100%
+4.2%
n=2
Feb
50%
−2.7%
n=2
Mar
0%
−10.9%
n=2
Apr
50%
+15.9%
n=2
May
67%
+5.3%
n=3
Jun
33%
+5.9%
n=3
Jul
33%
−4.1%
n=3
Aug
67%
+5.6%
n=3
Sep
67%
+2.0%
n=3
Oct
50%
+7.2%
n=2
Nov
50%
−3.3%
n=2
Dec
0%
−10.2%
n=2

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$82$542026-05-20: 1 insider sale, $2.1M — Danmola Taiwo K.2026-03-13: 2 insider purchases, $4.9M — LEVY PAUL S, Carpenito Anthony2026-03-12: 5 insider purchases, $5.9M — Charles Dirkson R, Bobbili Raja, Carpenito Anthony …2026-03-11: 1 insider purchase, $281K — Charles Dirkson R2026-03-10: 1 insider purchase, $229K — Charles Dirkson R2026-03: 9 open-market purchases, $11.3M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $2.1M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Danmola Taiwo K. — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector LEVY PAUL S — Purchase on 2026-03-13, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Carpenito Anthony — Purchase on 2026-03-13, filed same daydirector Charles Dirkson R — Purchase on 2026-03-12, filed same daydirector Bobbili Raja — Purchase on 2026-03-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Bobbili Raja — Purchase on 2026-03-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Carpenito Anthony — Purchase on 2026-03-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Carpenito Anthony — Purchase on 2026-03-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Charles Dirkson R — Purchase on 2026-03-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Charles Dirkson R — Purchase on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-20Danmola Taiwo K.directorSale35,000 @ $60.59$2.1M−39.2% of holding+16.0%not yet — horizon still open54,286Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-13LEVY PAUL SdirectorPurchase75,000 @ $64.90$4.9M+0.9% of holding−1.3%−15.7%8,087,580Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-13Carpenito AnthonydirectorPurchase50 @ $64.70$3K+1.1% of holding−1.3%−15.7%4,800Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-12Charles Dirkson RdirectorPurchase36,434 @ $67.45$2.5M+0.9% of holding+1.6%−9.8%4,087,005Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-12Bobbili RajadirectorPurchase30,000 @ $64.17$1.9M+150.0% of holding+1.6%−9.8%50,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-12Bobbili RajadirectorPurchase20,000 @ $62.76$1.3Mownership Δ n/a+1.6%−9.8%20,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-12Carpenito AnthonydirectorPurchase3,490 @ $65.16$227K+277.0% of holding+1.6%−9.8%4,750Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-12Carpenito AnthonydirectorPurchase1,260 @ $64.45$81Kownership Δ n/a+1.6%−9.8%1,260Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-11Charles Dirkson RdirectorPurchase4,166 @ $67.49$281K+0.1% of holding−8.8%−20.1%4,050,571Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-10Charles Dirkson RdirectorPurchase3,400 @ $67.41$229K+0.1% of holding−7.4%−17.5%4,046,405Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-09Blackstone Alternative Credit Advisors LPtenPercentOwnerSale2,656,060 @ $82.61$219.4M−28.1% of holding−16.4%−40.3%6,802,527Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-09Blackstone Holdings IV L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale2,656,060 @ $82.61$219.4M−28.1% of holding−16.4%−40.3%6,802,527Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-09GSO Capital Opportunities Fund III LPtenPercentOwnerSale2,656,060 @ $82.61$219.4M−28.1% of holding−16.4%−40.3%6,802,527Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-09GSO Capital Opportunities Fund III LPtenPercentOwnerSale113,327 @ $82.61$9.4M−28.1% of holding−16.4%−40.3%290,246Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-09Blackstone Alternative Credit Advisors LPtenPercentOwnerSale113,327 @ $82.61$9.4M−28.1% of holding−16.4%−40.3%290,246Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-09Blackstone Holdings IV L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale113,327 @ $82.61$9.4M−28.1% of holding−16.4%−40.3%290,246Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-09Blackstone Alternative Credit Advisors LPtenPercentOwnerSale99,858 @ $82.61$8.2M−28.1% of holding−16.4%−40.3%255,750Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-09Blackstone Holdings IV L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale99,858 @ $82.61$8.2M−28.1% of holding−16.4%−40.3%255,750Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-09GSO Capital Opportunities Fund III LPtenPercentOwnerSale99,858 @ $82.61$8.2M−28.1% of holding−16.4%−40.3%255,750Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-09Blackstone Alternative Credit Advisors LPtenPercentOwnerSale81,621 @ $82.61$6.7M−28.1% of holding−16.4%−40.3%209,042Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-09Blackstone Holdings IV L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale81,621 @ $82.61$6.7M−28.1% of holding−16.4%−40.3%209,042Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-09GSO Capital Opportunities Fund III LPtenPercentOwnerSale81,621 @ $82.61$6.7M−28.1% of holding−16.4%−40.3%209,042Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-09Blackstone Alternative Credit Advisors LPtenPercentOwnerSale49,134 @ $82.61$4.1M−28.1% of holding−16.4%−40.3%125,840Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-09Blackstone Holdings IV L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale49,134 @ $82.61$4.1M−28.1% of holding−16.4%−40.3%125,840Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-09GSO Capital Opportunities Fund III LPtenPercentOwnerSale49,134 @ $82.61$4.1M−28.1% of holding−16.4%−40.3%125,840Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-19Blackstone Alternative Credit Advisors LPtenPercentOwnerSale207,670 @ $80.91$16.8M−2.1% of holding−3.4%−37.4%9,458,587Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19Blackstone Holdings IV L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale207,670 @ $80.91$16.8M−2.1% of holding−3.4%−37.4%9,458,587Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19GSO Capital Opportunities Fund III LPtenPercentOwnerSale207,670 @ $80.91$16.8M−2.1% of holding−3.4%−37.4%9,458,587Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19LEVY PAUL SdirectorSale175,923 @ $80.91$14.2M−2.1% of holding−3.4%−37.4%8,012,580Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-19Charles Dirkson RdirectorSale88,767 @ $80.91$7.2M−2.1% of holding−3.4%−37.4%4,043,005Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-19MILGRIM BRETT NdirectorSale84,115 @ $80.91$6.8M−2.5% of holding−3.4%−37.4%3,222,517Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-19D'Alessandro GlennofficerSale19,939 @ $80.91$1.6M−2.1% of holding−3.4%−37.4%908,135Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-19Manella Michael J.officerSale19,684 @ $80.91$1.6M−4.4% of holding−3.4%−37.4%429,960Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-19Blackstone Alternative Credit Advisors LPtenPercentOwnerSale8,861 @ $80.91$717K−2.1% of holding−3.4%−37.4%403,573Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19Blackstone Holdings IV L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale8,861 @ $80.91$717K−2.1% of holding−3.4%−37.4%403,573Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19GSO Capital Opportunities Fund III LPtenPercentOwnerSale8,861 @ $80.91$717K−2.1% of holding−3.4%−37.4%403,573Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19Blackstone Holdings IV L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale7,808 @ $80.91$632K−2.1% of holding−3.4%−37.4%355,608Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19Blackstone Alternative Credit Advisors LPtenPercentOwnerSale7,808 @ $80.91$632K−2.1% of holding−3.4%−37.4%355,608Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19GSO Capital Opportunities Fund III LPtenPercentOwnerSale7,808 @ $80.91$632K−2.1% of holding−3.4%−37.4%355,608Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19GSO Capital Opportunities Fund III LPtenPercentOwnerSale6,382 @ $80.91$516K−2.1% of holding−3.4%−37.4%290,663Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19Blackstone Holdings IV L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale6,382 @ $80.91$516K−2.1% of holding−3.4%−37.4%290,663Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19Blackstone Alternative Credit Advisors LPtenPercentOwnerSale6,382 @ $80.91$516K−2.1% of holding−3.4%−37.4%290,663Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19Blackstone Alternative Credit Advisors LPtenPercentOwnerSale3,842 @ $80.91$311K−2.1% of holding−3.4%−37.4%174,974Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19Blackstone Holdings IV L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale3,842 @ $80.91$311K−2.1% of holding−3.4%−37.4%174,974Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19GSO Capital Opportunities Fund III LPtenPercentOwnerSale3,842 @ $80.91$311K−2.1% of holding−3.4%−37.4%174,974Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-16Blackstone Holdings IV L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale1,379,375 @ $80.91$111.6M−12.5% of holding−5.9%−35.7%9,666,257Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-16GSO Capital Opportunities Fund III LPtenPercentOwnerSale1,379,375 @ $80.91$111.6M−12.5% of holding−5.9%−35.7%9,666,257Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-16Blackstone Alternative Credit Advisors LPtenPercentOwnerSale1,379,375 @ $80.91$111.6M−12.5% of holding−5.9%−35.7%9,666,257Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-16LEVY PAUL SdirectorSale1,168,499 @ $80.91$94.5M−12.5% of holding−5.9%−35.7%8,188,503Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-16ABRAMS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale703,691 @ $80.91$56.9M−2.1% of holding−5.9%−35.7%32,050,240Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-16Abrams David CdirectorSale703,691 @ $80.91$56.9M−2.1% of holding−5.9%−35.7%32,050,240Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-16Carpenito AnthonydirectorSale690,258 @ $80.91$55.8M−2.1% of holding−5.9%−35.7%31,438,420Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-16Bobbili RajadirectorSale690,258 @ $80.91$55.8M−2.1% of holding−5.9%−35.7%31,438,420Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-16Bomberg AlisondirectorSale690,258 @ $80.91$55.8M−2.1% of holding−5.9%−35.7%31,438,420Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-16Charles Dirkson RdirectorSale589,605 @ $80.91$47.7M−12.5% of holding−5.9%−35.7%4,131,772Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-16MILGRIM BRETT NdirectorSale558,695 @ $80.91$45.2M−14.5% of holding−5.9%−35.7%3,306,632Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-16D'Alessandro GlennofficerSale132,436 @ $80.91$10.7M−12.5% of holding−5.9%−35.7%928,074Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-16Manella Michael J.officerSale130,744 @ $80.91$10.6M−22.5% of holding−5.9%−35.7%449,644Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-16Blackstone Holdings IV L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale58,854 @ $80.91$4.8M−12.5% of holding−5.9%−35.7%412,434Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-16GSO Capital Opportunities Fund III LPtenPercentOwnerSale58,854 @ $80.91$4.8M−12.5% of holding−5.9%−35.7%412,434Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

2 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-03-11McGetrick Margaret AdirectorGift71,42917,857Form 4
2026-03-10Manella Michael J.officerGift429,9600Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.