LNCLincoln National Corporationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $42.45 · now $42.45 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LNC has typically landed between $35.54 and $49.59 — a range of −16.3% to +16.8% from the issuance price $42.45.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($42.45) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where LNC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $42.45 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$35.54worst · -16.3%$49.59best · +16.8%
  • now $42.45 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $42.73 (+0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $39.7–$45.76
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $35.54–$49.59
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-10-22−75.8%−75.8%+8.6%
2020-02-20−72.0%−72.0%+0.0%
2008-10-21−71.0%−71.0%+0.0%
3 best
2008-11-20+224.9%+0.0%+274.4%
2008-11-19+159.9%−30.6%+159.9%
2008-11-21+154.6%+0.0%+199.0%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+0.4%
n=18
Feb
58%
−0.9%
n=19
Mar
47%
−2.6%
n=19
Apr
53%
+5.8%
n=19
May
47%
+2.8%
n=19
Jun
47%
−2.0%
n=19
Jul
79%
+6.9%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.7%
n=19
Sep
37%
−2.5%
n=19
Oct
72%
+1.5%
n=18
Nov
61%
+2.6%
n=18
Dec
67%
+2.3%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$46$322026-08-17: 1 insider sale, $498K — Woodroffe Sean2026-08-12: 1 insider sale, $398K — KELLY GARY C2026-06-05: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — Beazer CraigT T2026-06-01: 1 insider sale, $869K — Woodroffe Sean2026-03-13: 1 insider purchase, $10K — Charters Jennifer2026-03-09: 1 insider sale, $262K — Woodroffe Sean2026-03-02: 1 insider sale, $345K — Woodroffe Sean2026-02-18: 1 insider sale, $128K — Reid James Waltman2025-12-10: 1 insider sale, $155K — Kennedy John Christopher2025-11-12: 1 insider purchase, $84K — Ryan Owen2025-08-15: 2 insider sales, $921K — Woodroffe Sean, Kroll Brian2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $1.1M2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $84K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $155K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $128K2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $10K2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $607K2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $1.9M2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $896K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Woodroffe Sean — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector KELLY GARY C — Sale on 2026-08-12, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Beazer CraigT T — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Woodroffe Sean — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Charters Jennifer — Purchase on 2026-03-13, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Woodroffe Sean — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed same dayofficer Woodroffe Sean — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed same dayofficer Reid James Waltman — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Kennedy John Christopher — Sale on 2025-12-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ryan Owen — Purchase on 2025-11-12, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Woodroffe Sean — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Kroll Brian — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-17Woodroffe SeanofficerSale11,000 @ $45.28$498K−8.4% of holding−2.6%not yet — horizon still open119,947Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-12KELLY GARY CdirectorSale15,007 @ $26.50$398K−100.0% of holding+0.5%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-05Beazer CraigT TofficerSale30,000 @ $34.45$1.0M−22.4% of holding+10.1%not yet — horizon still open103,906Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-01Woodroffe SeanofficerSale25,000 @ $34.75$869K−16.1% of holding+6.0%not yet — horizon still open130,189Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-13Charters JenniferofficerPurchase300 @ $32.61$10K+0.8% of holding+4.7%not yet — horizon still open37,796Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-09Woodroffe SeanofficerSale8,000 @ $32.74$262K−3.9% of holding+4.9%not yet — horizon still open198,159Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-02Woodroffe SeanofficerSale10,000 @ $34.46$345K−4.6% of holding+7.9%not yet — horizon still open206,159Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-18Reid James WaltmanofficerSale3,050 @ $41.81$128K−2.5% of holding−15.8%−1.5%118,567Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-10Kennedy John ChristopherofficerSale3,519 @ $44.15$155K−2.9% of holding−7.4%−23.7%118,985Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12Ryan OwendirectorPurchase2,000 @ $42.17$84K+20.0% of holding+8.0%−24.6%12,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-15Woodroffe SeanofficerSale16,164 @ $40.90$661K−9.4% of holding−5.4%−2.0%155,982Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-15Kroll BrianofficerSale6,362 @ $40.87$260K−11.3% of holding−5.4%−2.0%49,756Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-07Kennedy John ChristopherofficerSale5,000 @ $39.29$196K−3.9% of holding+6.3%−2.2%123,815Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-29Kroll BrianofficerSale10,075 @ $33.10$333K−17.1% of holding−1.1%+11.4%48,743Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-27Woodroffe SeanofficerSale43,622 @ $32.78$1.4M−22.1% of holding−0.9%+9.5%154,102Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-15Morris James TdirectorSale10 @ $34.00$340−100.0% of holding−5.0%+9.0%0Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

153 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-24Cohen Adam MofficerAward / grant7,86647,778Form 4
2026-08-24Cohen Adam MofficerAward / grant23,59771,375Form 4
2026-08-17Chesney Curtis W.officerGift63721,984Form 4
2026-08-09Neczypor Christopher MofficerWithheld for tax2,464194,705Form 4
2026-06-30CUNNINGHAM WILLIAM H DRdirectorAward / grant1,697198,390Form 4
2026-06-30LACHMAN M LEANNEdirectorAward / grant1,27342,341Form 4
2026-06-30Ryan OwendirectorAward / grant1,27324,673Form 4
2026-06-30Morris James TdirectorAward / grant1,2736,533Form 4
2026-06-30LeFebvre DaledirectorAward / grant1,27330,479Form 4
2026-06-30Connelly Deirdre PdirectorAward / grant1,27349,064Form 4
2026-06-30Davis Reginald EdirectorAward / grant1,27331,292Form 4
2026-06-30JOHNSON ERIC GdirectorAward / grant1,27398,832Form 4
2026-06-30KELLY GARY CdirectorAward / grant1,273113,371Form 4
2026-06-01Rallis AndrewofficerWithheld for tax20,052162,530Form 4
2026-05-24Woodroffe SeanofficerWithheld for tax45,150155,189Form 4
2026-05-24Rallis AndrewofficerWithheld for tax32,281182,582Form 4
2026-05-24Kennedy John ChristopherofficerWithheld for tax23,801125,557Form 4
2026-03-31CUNNINGHAM WILLIAM H DRdirectorAward / grant1,690194,362Form 4
2026-03-31Davis Reginald EdirectorAward / grant1,26829,663Form 4
2026-03-31LeFebvre DaledirectorAward / grant1,26828,860Form 4
2026-03-31Connelly Deirdre PdirectorAward / grant1,26847,225Form 4
2026-03-31JOHNSON ERIC GdirectorAward / grant1,26896,403Form 4
2026-03-31KELLY GARY CdirectorAward / grant1,268110,770Form 4
2026-03-31Morris James TdirectorAward / grant1,2685,198Form 4
2026-03-31LACHMAN M LEANNEdirectorAward / grant1,26840,581Form 4
2026-03-31Ryan OwendirectorAward / grant1,26823,123Form 4
2026-02-27Woodroffe SeanofficerDiscretionary10,20410,204Form 4
2026-02-19Cooper EllendirectorWithheld for tax80,413642,341Form 4
2026-02-19Reid James WaltmanofficerWithheld for tax20,697140,680Form 4
2026-02-19Neczypor Christopher MofficerWithheld for tax19,970152,934Form 4
2026-02-19Woodroffe SeanofficerWithheld for tax19,037193,715Form 4
2026-02-19Cooper EllendirectorWithheld for tax12,316659,017Form 4
2026-02-19Beazer CraigT TofficerWithheld for tax11,413111,691Form 4
2026-02-19Kennedy John ChristopherofficerWithheld for tax7,353131,812Form 4
2026-02-19Cohen Adam MofficerWithheld for tax2,27229,922Form 4
2026-02-19Cooper EllendirectorAward / grant28,992671,333Form 4
2026-02-19Cohen Adam MofficerAward / grant9,33739,259Form 4
2026-02-19Kroll BrianofficerAward / grant20,57470,536Form 4
2026-02-19Kennedy John ChristopherofficerAward / grant22,026139,165Form 4
2026-02-19Adhya NilanjanofficerAward / grant19,95119,951Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-24$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-11$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-08-132025-06-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-11-082023-10-31$1–15K
Michael Patrick GuestHousepurchase2023-08-232023-08-07$1–15K
Daniel GoldmanHousesale2023-05-192023-04-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-05-082023-04-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-01-062022-12-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2022-12-062022-11-15$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2022-01-272021-12-23$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.