Issued 2026-09-25 at $519.56 · now $519.56 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, LMT has typically landed between $470.30 and $581.15 — a range of −9.5% to +11.9% from the issuance price $519.56.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($519.56) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where LMT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $519.56 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $519.56 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $524.16 (+0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $500.21–$548.12
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $470.3–$581.15
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −35.5% | −35.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −34.9% | −34.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-13 | −33.3% | −33.3% | +0.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +37.4% | +0.0% | +45.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | +31.5% | +0.0% | +31.5% |
| 2020-03-24 | +30.4% | +0.0% | +39.0% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$134.3B
market cap
$27.13
EPS (TTM)
21.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-20
next earnings
Revenue$75.1B
'20'25
Net income$5.0B
'20'25
Free cash flow$6.9B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr6.7%
'20'25
ROE · by yr74.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr3.23
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$815.72
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$831.62
- Analyst target · range $517.00–$700.00$617.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$519.56
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+2.8%
n=18
Feb
74%
+1.6%
n=19
Mar
63%
+1.4%
n=19
Apr
68%
+2.0%
n=19
May
74%
+1.1%
n=19
Jun
32%
−1.0%
n=19
Jul
63%
+2.9%
n=19
Aug
63%
+1.8%
n=19
Sep
58%
+0.4%
n=19
Oct
50%
−0.8%
n=18
Nov
72%
+1.7%
n=18
Dec
56%
+0.1%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Donovan John | director | Sale | 631 @ $0.00 | $0 | −26.6% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,742 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Donovan John | director | Sale | 120 @ $0.00 | $0 | −3.6% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,258 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Donovan John | director | Sale | 204 @ $0.00 | $0 | −6.3% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,054 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Donovan John | director | Sale | 469 @ $0.00 | $0 | −16.5% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,373 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Donovan John | director | Sale | 1,742 @ $0.00 | $0 | −100.0% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Donovan John | director | Sale | 212 @ $0.00 | $0 | −6.9% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,842 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Lightfoot Robert M JR | officer | Sale | 196 @ $600.12 | $118K | −8.9% of holding | −12.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,015 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Lightfoot Robert M JR | officer | Sale | 1,564 @ $0.00 | $0 | −41.4% of holding | −9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,211 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Lightfoot Robert M JR | officer | Sale | 846 @ $0.00 | $0 | −18.3% of holding | −9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,775 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Cahill Timothy S | officer | Sale | 440 @ $0.00 | $0 | −3.3% of holding | −6.2% | −30.5% | 13,011 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Cahill Timothy S | officer | Sale | 80 @ $0.00 | $0 | −0.6% of holding | −6.2% | −30.5% | 14,131 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Cahill Timothy S | officer | Sale | 280 @ $0.00 | $0 | −2.0% of holding | −6.2% | −30.5% | 13,851 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Cahill Timothy S | officer | Sale | 400 @ $0.00 | $0 | −2.9% of holding | −6.2% | −30.5% | 13,451 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Cahill Timothy S | officer | Sale | 600 @ $0.00 | $0 | −4.6% of holding | −6.2% | −30.5% | 12,411 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Cahill Timothy S | officer | Sale | 640 @ $0.00 | $0 | −5.2% of holding | −6.2% | −30.5% | 11,771 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Cahill Timothy S | officer | Sale | 900 @ $0.00 | $0 | −7.6% of holding | −6.2% | −30.5% | 10,871 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Cahill Timothy S | officer | Sale | 1,280 @ $0.00 | $0 | −11.8% of holding | −6.2% | −30.5% | 9,591 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Ulmer Gregory M | officer | Sale | 2,520 @ $0.00 | $0 | −30.8% of holding | −0.9% | −26.6% | 5,661 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | Ulmer Gregory M | officer | Sale | 320 @ $0.00 | $0 | −3.8% of holding | −0.9% | −26.6% | 8,181 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | Hill Stephanie C. | director | Sale | 10 @ $666.05 | $7K | −0.1% of holding | −1.4% | −27.3% | 11,732 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | Hill Stephanie C. | director | Sale | 2,400 @ $0.00 | $0 | −20.5% of holding | −1.4% | −27.3% | 9,332 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-23 | St John Frank A | officer | Sale | 4,703 @ $491.31 | $2.3M | −100.0% of holding | −3.7% | −0.5% | 1 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-23 | St John Frank A | officer | Sale | 3,020 @ $490.58 | $1.5M | −39.1% of holding | −3.7% | −0.5% | 4,704 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-23 | St John Frank A | officer | Sale | 69 @ $492.42 | $34K | −0.9% of holding | −3.7% | −0.5% | 7,724 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | Hill Stephanie C. | director | Sale | 4,791 @ $442.51 | $2.1M | −33.9% of holding | +5.2% | −5.0% | 9,332 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | Lightfoot Robert M JR | officer | Sale | 3,213 @ $442.42 | $1.4M | −61.6% of holding | +5.2% | −5.0% | 2,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | Paul Harry Edward III | officer | Sale | 707 @ $442.61 | $313K | −23.7% of holding | +5.2% | −5.0% | 2,278 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
273 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | St John Frank A | officer | Discretionary | 7 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | St John Frank A | officer | Discretionary | 54 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | St John Frank A | officer | Discretionary | 54 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Donovan John | director | Award / grant | 97 | 1,558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Donovan John | director | Award / grant | 97 | 1,558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | BURRITT DAVID B | director | Award / grant | 83 | 11,473 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | BURRITT DAVID B | director | Award / grant | 83 | 11,473 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Hill Stephanie C. | director | Gift | 368 | 8,964 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Hollub Vicki A. | director | Option exercise | 416 | 416 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Hollub Vicki A. | director | Option exercise | 416 | 3,504 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Hollub Vicki A. | director | Option exercise | 416 | 3,504 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Dunford Joseph F Jr | director | Award / grant | 81 | 81 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Dunford Joseph F Jr | director | Award / grant | 81 | 81 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Donovan John | director | Award / grant | 82 | 1,451 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | BURRITT DAVID B | director | Award / grant | 70 | 11,313 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Donovan John | director | Award / grant | 82 | 1,451 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | BURRITT DAVID B | director | Award / grant | 70 | 11,313 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | O'Connor Kevin J. | director | Withheld for tax | 2,566 | 2,719 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | O'Connor Kevin J. | director | Option exercise | 5,285 | 5,285 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | O'Connor Kevin J. | director | Option exercise | 5,285 | 13,289 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | O'Connor Kevin J. | director | Option exercise | 5,285 | 13,289 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Hill Stephanie C. | director | Award / grant | 2,084 | 2,084 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Lightfoot Robert M JR | officer | Award / grant | 2,223 | 2,223 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Cahill Timothy S | officer | Award / grant | 2,223 | 2,223 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Scott Evan T | officer | Award / grant | 2,779 | 2,779 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | St John Frank A | officer | Award / grant | 3,243 | 3,243 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | TAICLET JAMES D JR | director | Award / grant | 8,803 | 8,803 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Paul Harry Edward III | officer | Award / grant | 772 | 772 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | O'Connor Kevin J. | director | Award / grant | 1,992 | 1,992 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | TAICLET JAMES D JR | director | Withheld for tax | 7,661 | 43,963 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | St John Frank A | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,993 | 3,826 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Hill Stephanie C. | director | Withheld for tax | 2,166 | 11,742 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Lightfoot Robert M JR | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,080 | 4,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Cahill Timothy S | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,752 | 14,211 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Ulmer Gregory M | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,752 | 8,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Scott Evan T | officer | Withheld for tax | 533 | 945 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Paul Harry Edward III | officer | Withheld for tax | 495 | 2,878 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Ricciardone Maria A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 230 | 1,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | TAICLET JAMES D JR | director | Option exercise | 9,618 | 43,782 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | TAICLET JAMES D JR | director | Award / grant | 7,842 | 51,624 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Tommy Tuberville | Senate | sale | 2026-07-16 | 2026-06-08 | $15–50K |
| Tim Walberg | House | purchase | 2026-06-03 | 2025-02-07 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-01-12 | 2025-12-19 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-12-15 | 2025-11-18 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-23 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-09-12 | 2025-08-05 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | purchase | 2025-09-12 | 2024-10-29 | $1–15K |
| Ritchie John Torres | House | purchase | 2025-08-20 | 2024-09-26 | $1–15K |
| Scott Scott Franklin | House | purchase | 2025-07-03 | 2024-08-07 | $1–15K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | sale | 2025-06-22 | 2025-05-12 | $15–50K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2025-06-06 | 2025-05-30 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-05-14 | 2025-04-01 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2025-05-09 | 2025-04-07 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.