Issued 2026-09-16 at $98.62 · now $98.62 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LLYVK has typically landed between $87.70 and $114.61 — a range of −11.1% to +16.2% from the issuance price $98.62.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
759 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-08-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($98.62) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where LLYVK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $98.62 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $98.62 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $101.12 (+2.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $95.67–$106.58
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $87.7–$114.61
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-02-14 | −19.7% | −21.9% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-11 | −17.9% | −17.9% | +5.0% |
| 2025-02-13 | −17.0% | −21.1% | +0.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-09-13 | +34.1% | +0.0% | +34.1% |
| 2024-09-12 | +34.0% | +0.0% | +34.0% |
| 2024-09-03 | +33.7% | −1.8% | +33.7% |
759 overlapping windows · 2023-08-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~4 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
63 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | Wilm Renee L | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,814 | 16,792 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Wendling Brian J | director | Withheld for tax | 1,491 | 18,955 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Hollingsworth Chad | director | Withheld for tax | 609 | 1,276 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Hollingsworth Chad | director | Award / grant | 1,241 | 1,885 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Wendling Brian J | director | Award / grant | 3,180 | 20,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Wilm Renee L | officer | Award / grant | 6,205 | 19,606 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-29 | BENNETT ROBERT R | director | Other acquisition | 197,367 | 596,527 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-29 | BENNETT ROBERT R | director | Other acquisition | 114 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-29 | BENNETT ROBERT R | director | Other acquisition | 114 | 343 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-29 | BENNETT ROBERT R | director | Other acquisition | 197,367 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Kurtz William R. | director | Award / grant | 4,618 | 4,618 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | FLOWERS DAVID J A | director | Award / grant | 934 | 934 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | FLOWERS DAVID J A | director | Award / grant | 2,309 | 2,309 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | VOGEL CARL E | director | Award / grant | 4,618 | 4,618 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Wilm Renee L | officer | Other acquisition | 4,295 | 4,295 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Wilm Renee L | officer | Other acquisition | 604 | 604 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | CHANG DEREK | director | Other acquisition | 52 | 52 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | BENNETT ROBERT R | director | Other acquisition | 5,626 | 5,626 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | BENNETT ROBERT R | director | Other acquisition | 859 | 859 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | BENNETT ROBERT R | director | Other acquisition | 2,083 | 2,083 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | BENNETT ROBERT R | director | Other acquisition | 10,792 | 10,792 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | BENNETT ROBERT R | director | Other acquisition | 114 | 114 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | BENNETT ROBERT R | director | Other acquisition | 229 | 229 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | BENNETT ROBERT R | director | Other acquisition | 191,741 | 191,741 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | BENNETT ROBERT R | director | Other acquisition | 399,160 | 399,160 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | BENNETT ROBERT R | director | Other acquisition | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Wilm Renee L | officer | Other acquisition | 13,401 | 13,401 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Wilm Renee L | officer | Other acquisition | 2,210 | 2,210 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Wilm Renee L | officer | Other acquisition | 5,942 | 5,942 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Wilm Renee L | officer | Other acquisition | 16,434 | 16,434 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Hollingsworth Chad | director | Other acquisition | 4,754 | 4,754 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Hollingsworth Chad | director | Other acquisition | 442 | 442 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Hollingsworth Chad | director | Other acquisition | 2,192 | 2,192 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | CHANG DEREK | director | Other acquisition | 62,051 | 62,051 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | CHANG DEREK | director | Other acquisition | 23,628 | 23,628 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | CHANG DEREK | director | Other acquisition | 88,584 | 88,584 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | CHANG DEREK | director | Other acquisition | 542 | 542 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | CHANG DEREK | director | Other acquisition | 51 | 51 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | CHANG DEREK | director | Other acquisition | 581 | 581 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | FLOWERS DAVID J A | director | Other acquisition | 878 | 878 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.