Issued 2026-08-13 at $1209.85 · now $1209.85 (2026-08-13, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, LLY has typically landed between $1064.53 and $1416.38 — a range of −12.0% to +17.1% from the issuance price $1209.85.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,662 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($1209.85) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where LLY has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $1,210 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1,210 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1,238 (+2.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1,166–$1,311
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1,065–$1,416
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,662 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-08-13. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −35.1% | −35.1% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-11 | −32.9% | −32.9% | +0.2% |
| 2008-09-25 | −31.9% | −32.7% | +0.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-10-28 | +34.9% | −0.8% | +35.5% |
| 2025-10-27 | +34.5% | −1.6% | +34.5% |
| 2020-03-25 | +33.6% | +0.0% | +33.6% |
4,662 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- September 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) in Participants With Overweight or Obesity and Chronic Kidney Disease With or Without Type 2 Diabetes (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- October 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study of Baricitinib (LY3009104) in Participants From 1 Year to Less Than 18 Years Old With Systemic Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis (sJIA) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study to Evaluate LY3537021 for the Treatment of Nausea and Vomiting Caused by Chemotherapy in Adults With Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- February 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study of Brenipatide in Adults Who Quit Smoking Cigarettes and Want to Avoid Relapse (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- March 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study of Macupatide (LY3532226) and Eloralintide (LY3841136), Alone or in Combination, in Adults With Obesity or Overweight and With Type 2 Diabetes (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- June 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Master Protocol (IIBD): A Study of Multiple Drugs in Adults With Ulcerative Colitis or Crohn's Disease (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- November 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Donanemab (LY3002813) Study in Participants With Preclinical Alzheimer's Disease (TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 3) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- March 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study of Eloralintide (LY3841136) in Participants With Obesity, or Overweight Without Type 2 Diabetes (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- May 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study of Donanemab (LY3002813) in Participants With Early Symptomatic Alzheimer's Disease (TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 5) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- November 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Three-Part Phase 3 Study of Sofetabart Mipitecan in Participants With Platinum-Resistant (Part A) and Platinum-Sensitive (Parts B and C) Ovarian Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- May 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Study of Olomorasib (LY3537982) in Combination With Standard of Care in Participants With Resected or Unresectable KRAS G12C-mutant Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to See if Lepodisiran Can Reduce Plaque in Coronary Arteries of Adults With Elevated Lp(a) Who Have Had Heart Events or Are at High Risk (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$1.1T
market cap
$28.15
EPS (TTM)
42.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-05
next earnings
Revenue$65.2B
'20'25
Net income$20.6B
'20'25
Free cash flow$9.0B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr31.7%
'20'25
ROE · by yr77.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.60
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$458.31
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$772.45
- Analyst target · range $1,135–$1,500$1,300
- Current price · last close 2026-08-13$1,210
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+1.5%
n=18
Feb
47%
+0.4%
n=19
Mar
74%
+2.3%
n=19
Apr
58%
+1.5%
n=19
May
63%
+2.7%
n=19
Jun
79%
+3.5%
n=19
Jul
63%
+0.9%
n=19
Aug
42%
+2.4%
n=19
Sep
50%
+0.4%
n=18
Oct
56%
−0.6%
n=18
Nov
78%
+3.9%
n=18
Dec
61%
+4.2%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
What was excluded from the conviction count, and why
12 award/RSU grants excluded — these carry no conviction information.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+28 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 53.7% vs 53.2% · n=26,833
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +28 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | sale | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Dan Newhouse | House | sale | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-07-02 | 2026-06-10 | $50–100K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Byron Donalds | House | purchase | 2026-05-13 | 2026-04-02 | $1–15K |
| Byron Donalds | House | purchase | 2026-05-13 | 2026-04-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Elizabeth Fletcher | House | sale | 2026-05-01 | 2026-04-08 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-13 | $1–15K |
| Angus King | Senate | sale | 2026-03-24 | 2026-02-13 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | purchase | 2026-03-06 | 2026-02-26 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2026-02-20 | 2026-02-09 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.