Issued 2026-09-25 at $1183.46 · now $1183.46 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, LLY has typically landed between $1052.23 and $1385.49 — a range of −11.1% to +17.1% from the issuance price $1183.46.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($1183.46) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where LLY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $1,183 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1,183 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1,212 (+2.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1,141–$1,282
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1,052–$1,385
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −35.1% | −35.1% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-11 | −32.9% | −32.9% | +0.2% |
| 2008-09-25 | −31.9% | −32.7% | +0.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-10-28 | +34.9% | −0.8% | +35.5% |
| 2025-10-27 | +34.5% | −1.6% | +34.5% |
| 2020-03-25 | +33.6% | +0.0% | +33.6% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- October 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study of Baricitinib (LY3009104) in Participants From 1 Year to Less Than 18 Years Old With Systemic Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis (sJIA) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study to Evaluate LY3537021 for the Treatment of Nausea and Vomiting Caused by Chemotherapy in Adults With Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- February 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study of Brenipatide in Adults Who Quit Smoking Cigarettes and Want to Avoid Relapse (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- March 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study of Macupatide (LY3532226) and Eloralintide (LY3841136), Alone or in Combination, in Adults With Obesity or Overweight and With Type 2 Diabetes (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- June 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Master Protocol (IIBD): A Study of Multiple Drugs in Adults With Ulcerative Colitis or Crohn's Disease (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- November 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Donanemab (LY3002813) Study in Participants With Preclinical Alzheimer's Disease (TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 3) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- March 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study of Eloralintide (LY3841136) in Participants With Obesity, or Overweight Without Type 2 Diabetes (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- May 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study of Donanemab (LY3002813) in Participants With Early Symptomatic Alzheimer's Disease (TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 5) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- November 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Three-Part Phase 3 Study of Sofetabart Mipitecan in Participants With Platinum-Resistant (Part A) and Platinum-Sensitive (Parts B and C) Ovarian Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- May 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Study of Olomorasib (LY3537982) in Combination With Standard of Care in Participants With Resected or Unresectable KRAS G12C-mutant Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to See if Lepodisiran Can Reduce Plaque in Coronary Arteries of Adults With Elevated Lp(a) Who Have Had Heart Events or Are at High Risk (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- April 2030 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Donanemab (LY3002813) Trial in Chinese Participants With Cognitively Unimpaired (Preclinical) Alzheimer's Disease (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$1.1T
market cap
$28.15
EPS (TTM)
42.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-05
next earnings
Revenue$65.2B
'20'25
Net income$20.6B
'20'25
Free cash flow$9.0B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr31.7%
'20'25
ROE · by yr77.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.60
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$458.31
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$772.45
- Analyst target · range $1,135–$1,500$1,300
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$1,183
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+1.5%
n=18
Feb
47%
+0.4%
n=19
Mar
74%
+2.3%
n=19
Apr
58%
+1.5%
n=19
May
63%
+2.7%
n=19
Jun
79%
+3.5%
n=19
Jul
63%
+0.9%
n=19
Aug
42%
+2.1%
n=19
Sep
53%
+0.5%
n=19
Oct
56%
−0.6%
n=18
Nov
78%
+3.9%
n=18
Dec
61%
+4.2%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Jonsson Patrik | officer | Sale | 6,500 @ $1175.10 | $7.6M | −10.7% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,147 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Zakrowski Donald A | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $1185.01 | $2.4M | −56.7% of holding | −7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,526 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Hakim Anat | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $1190.00 | $6.0M | −29.6% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,875 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Yuffa Ilya | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $1150.77 | $2.9M | −7.7% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,804 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 13,620 @ $995.23 | $13.6M | −0.0% of holding | +14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 91,883,358 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 2,208 @ $996.18 | $2.2M | −0.0% of holding | +14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 91,881,150 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 40,956 @ $1103.31 | $45.2M | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 92,023,036 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 34,434 @ $1102.41 | $38.0M | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 92,063,992 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 24,362 @ $1105.46 | $26.9M | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 91,977,632 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 21,042 @ $1104.40 | $23.2M | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 92,001,994 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 20,668 @ $1101.42 | $22.8M | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 92,098,426 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 20,447 @ $1099.36 | $22.5M | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 92,134,031 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 16,650 @ $1107.37 | $18.4M | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 91,947,281 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 14,937 @ $1100.46 | $16.4M | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 92,119,094 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 13,701 @ $1106.42 | $15.2M | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 91,963,931 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 13,247 @ $1108.41 | $14.7M | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 91,934,034 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 9,573 @ $1098.55 | $10.5M | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 92,154,478 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 9,053 @ $1113.77 | $10.1M | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 91,906,267 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 8,513 @ $1109.32 | $9.4M | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 91,925,521 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 7,684 @ $1086.75 | $8.4M | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 92,180,547 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 6,408 @ $1097.41 | $7.0M | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 92,164,051 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 4,652 @ $1112.43 | $5.2M | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 91,915,320 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 4,342 @ $1114.37 | $4.8M | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 91,901,925 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 3,575 @ $1090.18 | $3.9M | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 92,174,972 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 3,464 @ $1110.37 | $3.8M | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 91,922,057 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 2,737 @ $1116.69 | $3.1M | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 91,896,978 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 2,210 @ $1115.76 | $2.5M | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 91,899,715 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 2,085 @ $1111.21 | $2.3M | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 91,919,972 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 1,322 @ $1093.58 | $1.4M | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 92,171,354 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 1,224 @ $1091.05 | $1.3M | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 92,173,748 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 1,072 @ $1092.56 | $1.2M | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 92,172,676 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 1,070 @ $1087.80 | $1.2M | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 92,179,477 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 930 @ $1088.97 | $1.0M | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 92,178,547 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 895 @ $1085.11 | $971K | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 92,188,231 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 475 @ $1095.74 | $520K | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 92,170,459 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 420 @ $1094.70 | $460K | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −2.4% | 92,170,934 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 1,390 @ $1085.01 | $1.5M | −0.0% of holding | +6.5% | +8.2% | 92,189,126 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-29 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 3,593 @ $1085.04 | $3.9M | −0.0% of holding | −6.0% | +1.8% | 92,190,516 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-24 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 2,629 @ $1085.17 | $2.9M | −0.0% of holding | −4.2% | +6.7% | 92,194,109 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 240 @ $1085.04 | $260K | −0.0% of holding | −1.5% | +6.6% | 92,196,738 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 18,254 @ $1092.06 | $19.9M | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | −12.8% | 92,299,689 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 11,854 @ $1101.45 | $13.1M | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | −12.8% | 92,245,486 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 9,249 @ $1109.45 | $10.3M | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | −12.8% | 92,198,318 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 9,050 @ $1093.16 | $9.9M | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | −12.8% | 92,290,639 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 8,527 @ $1100.34 | $9.4M | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | −12.8% | 92,257,340 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 7,794 @ $1107.48 | $8.6M | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | −12.8% | 92,212,610 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 7,456 @ $1102.35 | $8.2M | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | −12.8% | 92,238,030 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 6,545 @ $1099.48 | $7.2M | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | −12.8% | 92,265,867 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 6,508 @ $1086.94 | $7.1M | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | −12.8% | 92,336,650 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 6,274 @ $1103.58 | $6.9M | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | −12.8% | 92,231,756 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 6,246 @ $1094.03 | $6.8M | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | −12.8% | 92,284,393 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 5,927 @ $1091.12 | $6.5M | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | −12.8% | 92,317,943 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 5,604 @ $1086.07 | $6.1M | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | −12.8% | 92,343,158 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 5,589 @ $1087.96 | $6.1M | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | −12.8% | 92,331,061 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 5,284 @ $1088.91 | $5.8M | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | −12.8% | 92,325,777 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 5,196 @ $1104.41 | $5.7M | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | −12.8% | 92,226,560 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 5,043 @ $1108.71 | $5.6M | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | −12.8% | 92,207,567 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 4,639 @ $1098.32 | $5.1M | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | −12.8% | 92,272,412 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 4,198 @ $1097.44 | $4.6M | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | −12.8% | 92,277,051 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | LILLY ENDOWMENT INC | other | Sale | 3,662 @ $1106.57 | $4.1M | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | −12.8% | 92,220,404 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
118 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | LUCIANO JUAN R | director | Award / grant | 14 | 16,957 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | Alvarez Ralph | director | Award / grant | 11 | 55,838 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | Fyrwald J Erik | director | Award / grant | 9 | 75,536 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | Sulzberger Gabrielle | director | Award / grant | 4 | 3,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Seymour Melissa | officer | Gift | 12 | 1,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Dozier Eric | officer | Gift | 216 | 14,239 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Hernandez Edgardo | officer | Gift | 13 | 46,083 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | LUCIANO JUAN R | director | Award / grant | 13 | 16,918 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Alvarez Ralph | director | Award / grant | 10 | 55,745 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Fyrwald J Erik | director | Award / grant | 8 | 75,418 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Sulzberger Gabrielle | director | Award / grant | 4 | 3,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Seymour Melissa | officer | Withheld for tax | 439 | 1,067 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Seymour Melissa | officer | Option exercise | 981 | 1,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Seymour Melissa | officer | Option exercise | 981 | 952 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | LUCIANO JUAN R | director | Award / grant | 14 | 16,905 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Alvarez Ralph | director | Award / grant | 11 | 55,734 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Fyrwald J Erik | director | Award / grant | 9 | 75,410 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Sulzberger Gabrielle | director | Award / grant | 4 | 3,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | LUCIANO JUAN R | director | Award / grant | 14 | 16,891 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Alvarez Ralph | director | Award / grant | 11 | 55,723 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Fyrwald J Erik | director | Award / grant | 9 | 75,401 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Sulzberger Gabrielle | director | Award / grant | 4 | 2,995 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | LUCIANO JUAN R | director | Award / grant | 16 | 16,851 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Alvarez Ralph | director | Award / grant | 13 | 55,627 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Fyrwald J Erik | director | Award / grant | 10 | 75,280 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Sulzberger Gabrielle | director | Award / grant | 5 | 2,987 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | LUCIANO JUAN R | director | Award / grant | 17 | 16,835 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Alvarez Ralph | director | Award / grant | 13 | 55,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Fyrwald J Erik | director | Award / grant | 11 | 75,270 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Sulzberger Gabrielle | director | Award / grant | 5 | 2,982 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | LUCIANO JUAN R | director | Award / grant | 16 | 16,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Alvarez Ralph | director | Award / grant | 13 | 55,601 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Fyrwald J Erik | director | Award / grant | 10 | 75,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Sulzberger Gabrielle | director | Award / grant | 5 | 2,976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Dozier Eric | officer | Gift | 481 | 14,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | LUCIANO JUAN R | director | Award / grant | 15 | 16,772 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Alvarez Ralph | director | Award / grant | 12 | 55,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Fyrwald J Erik | director | Award / grant | 10 | 75,120 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Sulzberger Gabrielle | director | Award / grant | 5 | 2,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Brown Adrienne S | officer | Withheld for tax | 170 | 5,142 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | sale | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Dan Newhouse | House | sale | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-07-02 | 2026-06-10 | $50–100K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Byron Donalds | House | purchase | 2026-05-13 | 2026-04-02 | $1–15K |
| Byron Donalds | House | purchase | 2026-05-13 | 2026-04-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Elizabeth Fletcher | House | sale | 2026-05-01 | 2026-04-08 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-13 | $1–15K |
| Angus King | Senate | sale | 2026-03-24 | 2026-02-13 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | purchase | 2026-03-06 | 2026-02-26 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2026-02-20 | 2026-02-09 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.