LKQLKQ Corporationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $23.00 · now $23.00 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LKQ has typically landed between $20.10 and $25.45 — a range of −12.6% to +10.7% from the issuance price $23.00.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($23.00) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where LKQ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $23 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$20.1worst · -12.6%$25.45best · +10.7%
  • now $23 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $22.9 (-0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $21.88–$23.92
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $20.1–$25.45
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−57.9%−57.9%+0.0%
2020-02-18−52.2%−52.2%+2.3%
2020-02-20−52.1%−53.3%+0.0%
3 best
2008-12-04+49.9%+0.0%+49.9%
2020-03-23+45.0%+0.0%+62.1%
2020-04-03+44.0%+0.0%+50.7%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+0.1%
n=18
Feb
53%
+1.9%
n=19
Mar
58%
−0.4%
n=19
Apr
79%
+4.2%
n=19
May
68%
−0.5%
n=19
Jun
42%
−1.1%
n=19
Jul
68%
+2.1%
n=19
Aug
58%
+2.0%
n=19
Sep
26%
−2.2%
n=19
Oct
67%
+1.8%
n=18
Nov
72%
+1.6%
n=18
Dec
56%
+0.7%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$34$232025-08-28: 1 insider purchase, $482K — Urbain Xavier2025-08-27: 2 insider purchases, $338K — Jude Justin L, CLARKE ANDREW C2025-08: 3 open-market purchases, $820K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Urbain Xavier — Purchase on 2025-08-28, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Jude Justin L — Purchase on 2025-08-27, filed same daydirector CLARKE ANDREW C — Purchase on 2025-08-27, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-08-28Urbain XavierdirectorPurchase15,000 @ $32.12$482K+80.3% of holding−8.3%−3.7%33,669Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27Jude Justin LdirectorPurchase5,669 @ $31.50$179K+2.0% of holding−8.2%−2.4%286,446Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-27CLARKE ANDREW CdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $31.95$160K+30.9% of holding−8.2%−2.4%21,172Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-01Zarcone Dominick PdirectorSale5,000 @ $38.02$190K−1.6% of holding−0.9%−39.9%316,135Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-25Jude Justin LdirectorPurchase2,708 @ $36.99$100K+1.0% of holding+1.8%−40.6%280,777Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-01Zarcone Dominick PdirectorSale15,000 @ $42.15$632K−4.5% of holding−10.8%−46.7%321,135Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-03Zarcone Dominick PdirectorSale15,000 @ $42.32$635K−4.3% of holding+6.7%−32.9%336,135Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-20Zarcone Dominick PdirectorSale10,000 @ $41.66$417K−2.7% of holding+4.8%−30.2%359,462Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-03Zarcone Dominick PdirectorSale5,000 @ $36.14$181K−1.3% of holding+16.2%−24.0%369,462Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-02Zarcone Dominick PdirectorSale5,000 @ $36.84$184K−1.3% of holding−1.0%+0.5%374,462Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

129 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Jude Justin LdirectorWithheld for tax7,808358,336Form 4
2026-09-01Hamilton Andrew CofficerWithheld for tax5,19284,787Form 4
2026-09-01Galloway RickofficerWithheld for tax2,68395,110Form 4
2026-09-01Meyne John RofficerWithheld for tax2,48461,279Form 4
2026-09-01McKay Matthew JofficerWithheld for tax2,409127,968Form 4
2026-09-01Hanley Walter PofficerWithheld for tax2,377120,850Form 4
2026-09-01Dombrowski Genevieve LofficerWithheld for tax1,42446,233Form 4
2026-09-01Clark Michael S.officerWithheld for tax1,047109,927Form 4
2026-09-01Cunningham Todd GofficerWithheld for tax31321,562Form 4
2026-07-14Cunningham Todd GofficerWithheld for tax44321,875Form 4
2026-07-14Galloway RickofficerWithheld for tax31497,793Form 4
2026-07-14Meyne John RofficerWithheld for tax31363,763Form 4
2026-07-14Hamilton Andrew CofficerWithheld for tax8389,978Form 4
2026-05-06CLARKE ANDREW CdirectorAward / grant2,74429,345Form 4
2026-05-06Berard PatrickdirectorWithheld for tax1,25318,378Form 4
2026-05-06Urbain XavierdirectorWithheld for tax1,25338,122Form 4
2026-05-06GOVE SUEdirectorAward / grant5,70510,998Form 4
2026-05-06Powell Michael ScottdirectorAward / grant5,70510,998Form 4
2026-05-06METCALF JAMES SdirectorAward / grant5,70511,622Form 4
2026-05-06Mendel John WdirectorAward / grant12,10140,070Form 4
2026-05-06Urbain XavierdirectorAward / grant5,70539,374Form 4
2026-05-06CLARKE ANDREW CdirectorAward / grant5,70535,050Form 4
2026-05-06Divitto MegdirectorAward / grant5,70529,197Form 4
2026-03-02Jude Justin LdirectorWithheld for tax8,891366,144Form 4
2026-03-02Hamilton Andrew CofficerWithheld for tax5,19290,061Form 4
2026-03-02Galloway RickofficerWithheld for tax3,51298,107Form 4
2026-03-02Hanley Walter PofficerWithheld for tax3,348123,227Form 4
2026-03-02McKay Matthew JofficerWithheld for tax3,099130,377Form 4
2026-03-02Meyne John RofficerWithheld for tax2,48564,076Form 4
2026-03-02Dombrowski Genevieve LofficerWithheld for tax1,76747,658Form 4
2026-03-02Clark Michael S.officerWithheld for tax1,600110,975Form 4
2026-03-02Cunningham Todd GofficerWithheld for tax35122,318Form 4
2026-02-20Jude Justin LdirectorAward / grant97,525375,035Form 4
2026-02-20Galloway RickofficerAward / grant29,258101,619Form 4
2026-02-20Hamilton Andrew CofficerAward / grant25,50795,253Form 4
2026-02-20McKay Matthew JofficerAward / grant25,507133,476Form 4
2026-02-20Meyne John RofficerAward / grant25,50766,561Form 4
2026-02-20Dombrowski Genevieve LofficerAward / grant16,20549,425Form 4
2026-02-20Clark Michael S.officerAward / grant9,003112,575Form 4
2026-02-20Cunningham Todd GofficerAward / grant5,25222,669Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-10-032025-09-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-07-092025-06-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-03-062025-02-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-12-052024-11-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-11-082024-10-14$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-09-062024-08-05$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.