LIVN · TickerCove

LIVNLivaNova PLCHealthcare · Medical - Devicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $78.51 · now $78.51 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LIVN has typically landed between $66.12 and $91.48 — a range of −15.8% to +16.5% from the issuance price $78.51.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,722 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-10-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($78.51) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$78.51 · 81% of range

$49.57 low$85.33 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.3%

typical move · IQR 13.5%

−15.8%worst (p90)+16.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where LIVN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $78.51 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $78.51 (+0.0%)
typical $78.75 (+0.3%)
middle 50% $73.44–$84.06
90% range $66.12–$91.48

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,722 windows spanning 2015-10-19 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−51.5%	−51.5%	+8.4%
2020-02-20	−48.0%	−48.0%	+8.7%
2020-03-04	−44.9%	−55.3%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-23	+40.9%	+0.0%	+48.5%
2025-08-01	+38.4%	+0.0%	+38.4%
2020-11-20	+38.4%	+0.0%	+38.4%

2,722 overlapping windows · 2015-10-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

55%

−0.9%

n=11

Feb

82%

+2.7%

n=11

Mar

27%

−5.6%

n=11

Apr

45%

+0.1%

n=11

May

64%

+3.7%

n=11

Jun

73%

+1.9%

n=11

Jul

55%

+1.5%

n=11

Aug

64%

+4.4%

n=11

Sep

27%

−1.9%

n=11

Oct

30%

−2.2%

n=10

Nov

64%

+3.3%

n=11

Dec

45%

+0.7%

n=11

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-10	Bianchi Francesco	director	Sale	3,500 @ $78.01	$273K	−44.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	4,434	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-04	Story Brooke	director	Sale	2,300 @ $81.42	$187K	−23.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	7,488	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-31	Bianchi Francesco	director	Sale	1,650 @ $79.72	$132K	−17.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	7,934	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-11	Tezel Ahmet	officer	Sale	2,675 @ $77.74	$208K	−30.5% of holding	+1.1%	not yet — horizon still open	6,090	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15	Bianchi Francesco	director	Sale	1,200 @ $80.19	$96K	−11.1% of holding	+2.9%	not yet — horizon still open	9,584	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-26	Bianchi Francesco	director	Sale	1,800 @ $75.75	$136K	−19.9% of holding	+9.4%	not yet — horizon still open	7,228	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-18	Story Brooke	director	Sale	250 @ $53.94	$13K	−3.9% of holding	+12.7%	+23.5%	6,232	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-25	Bianchi Francesco	director	Sale	1,500 @ $56.50	$85K	−14.2% of holding	−8.7%	+16.2%	9,028	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-11	Bianchi Francesco	director	Sale	1,250 @ $50.99	$64K	−14.2% of holding	−3.7%	−11.5%	7,522	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

214 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-15	Liddy Anne M.	officer	Award / grant	6,291	6,291	Form 4
2026-08-11	Tezel Ahmet	officer	Disposition	8,589	10,193	Form 4
2026-08-11	Tezel Ahmet	officer	Option exercise	12,692	18,782	Form 4
2026-08-11	Tezel Ahmet	officer	Withheld for tax	1,428	8,765	Form 4
2026-08-11	Tezel Ahmet	officer	Option exercise	12,692	12,691	Form 4
2026-06-15	Tezel Ahmet	officer	Withheld for tax	1,032	6,090	Form 4
2026-06-15	KOZY WILLIAM A	director	Withheld for tax	682	37,566	Form 4
2026-06-15	Enxing Seng Stacy	director	Withheld for tax	486	15,307	Form 4
2026-06-15	PODLOGAR SUSAN M	director	Withheld for tax	486	5,642	Form 4
2026-06-15	Barry James Christopher	director	Withheld for tax	486	7,918	Form 4
2026-06-15	SCHERMERHORN TODD C	director	Withheld for tax	486	12,619	Form 4
2026-06-15	Bianchi Francesco	director	Withheld for tax	486	10,784	Form 4
2026-06-15	Story Brooke	director	Withheld for tax	486	9,788	Form 4
2026-06-15	WILVER PETER M	director	Withheld for tax	486	10,294	Form 4
2026-06-15	Zurbay Donald	director	Withheld for tax	308	2,252	Form 4
2026-06-15	Tezel Ahmet	officer	Option exercise	2,965	5,931	Form 4
2026-06-15	PODLOGAR SUSAN M	director	Option exercise	4,042	6,128	Form 4
2026-06-15	PODLOGAR SUSAN M	director	Option exercise	4,042	0	Form 4
2026-06-15	PODLOGAR SUSAN M	director	Award / grant	2,383	2,383	Form 4
2026-06-15	SCHERMERHORN TODD C	director	Option exercise	4,042	13,105	Form 4
2026-06-15	SCHERMERHORN TODD C	director	Option exercise	4,042	0	Form 4
2026-06-15	SCHERMERHORN TODD C	director	Award / grant	2,383	2,383	Form 4
2026-06-15	WILVER PETER M	director	Option exercise	4,042	10,780	Form 4
2026-06-15	WILVER PETER M	director	Option exercise	4,042	0	Form 4
2026-06-15	WILVER PETER M	director	Award / grant	2,383	2,383	Form 4
2026-06-15	Story Brooke	director	Option exercise	4,042	0	Form 4
2026-06-15	Barry James Christopher	director	Option exercise	4,042	8,404	Form 4
2026-06-15	Barry James Christopher	director	Option exercise	4,042	0	Form 4
2026-06-15	Barry James Christopher	director	Award / grant	2,383	2,383	Form 4
2026-06-15	Bianchi Francesco	director	Option exercise	4,042	11,270	Form 4
2026-06-15	Bianchi Francesco	director	Option exercise	4,042	0	Form 4
2026-06-15	Bianchi Francesco	director	Award / grant	2,383	2,383	Form 4
2026-06-15	Enxing Seng Stacy	director	Option exercise	4,042	15,793	Form 4
2026-06-15	Enxing Seng Stacy	director	Option exercise	4,042	0	Form 4
2026-06-15	Enxing Seng Stacy	director	Award / grant	2,383	2,383	Form 4
2026-06-15	KOZY WILLIAM A	director	Option exercise	5,681	38,248	Form 4
2026-06-15	KOZY WILLIAM A	director	Option exercise	5,681	0	Form 4
2026-06-15	KOZY WILLIAM A	director	Award / grant	2,383	2,383	Form 4
2026-06-15	Zurbay Donald	director	Option exercise	2,560	2,560	Form 4
2026-06-15	Zurbay Donald	director	Option exercise	2,560	0	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i