Issued 2026-09-25 at $941.65 · now $941.65 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, LITE has typically landed between $757.13 and $1248.77 — a range of −19.6% to +32.6% from the issuance price $941.65.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,790 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-07-23 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($941.65) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where LITE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $941.65 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $941.65 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $965.78 (+2.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $857.29–$1,074
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $757.13–$1,249
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-02-06 | −38.0% | −38.0% | +0.0% |
| 2018-10-16 | −37.3% | −39.4% | +0.7% |
| 2018-10-19 | −36.5% | −39.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-01-26 | +117.6% | +0.0% | +117.6% |
| 2026-01-29 | +105.3% | +0.0% | +105.3% |
| 2026-01-23 | +102.9% | −2.0% | +102.9% |
2,790 overlapping windows · 2015-07-23 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$-16.28
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$184.71
- Analyst target · range $550.00–$1,270$1,014
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$941.65
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Sale | 500 @ $935.75 | $468K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 109,127 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-24 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Sale | 500 @ $921.07 | $461K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 109,627 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Sale | 500 @ $946.56 | $473K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 110,127 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-22 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Sale | 500 @ $935.55 | $468K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 110,627 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Sale | 500 @ $959.27 | $480K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 111,127 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-18 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Sale | 500 @ $920.00 | $460K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 111,627 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-17 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Sale | 500 @ $933.45 | $467K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 112,127 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Sale | 500 @ $856.83 | $428K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 112,627 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Sale | 500 @ $841.51 | $421K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 113,127 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-14 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Sale | 500 @ $862.14 | $431K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 113,627 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Sale | 500 @ $944.41 | $472K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 114,127 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Sale | 500 @ $961.44 | $481K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 114,627 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-09 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Sale | 500 @ $978.54 | $489K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 115,127 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Sale | 500 @ $895.99 | $448K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 115,627 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Sale | 500 @ $860.00 | $430K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 116,127 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-03 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Sale | 500 @ $870.01 | $435K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 116,627 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Sale | 500 @ $864.49 | $432K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 117,127 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Sale | 500 @ $901.04 | $451K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 117,627 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-31 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Sale | 500 @ $895.00 | $448K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 118,127 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Sale | 500 @ $940.95 | $470K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 118,627 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | HURLSTON MICHAEL E. | director | Sale | 548 @ $958.66 | $525K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 186,951 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-27 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Sale | 500 @ $958.66 | $479K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 119,127 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-26 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Sale | 500 @ $882.15 | $441K | −0.5% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 91,729 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-25 | Retort Vincent | officer | Sale | 4,676 @ $856.71 | $4.0M | −5.2% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 84,441 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Retort Vincent | officer | Sale | 4,426 @ $851.68 | $3.8M | −4.3% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 99,579 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Retort Vincent | officer | Sale | 3,711 @ $852.60 | $3.2M | −3.7% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 95,868 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Retort Vincent | officer | Sale | 3,511 @ $857.95 | $3.0M | −4.2% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 80,930 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Retort Vincent | officer | Sale | 3,486 @ $854.89 | $3.0M | −3.7% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 89,917 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Retort Vincent | officer | Sale | 3,017 @ $850.66 | $2.6M | −2.8% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 104,005 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Retort Vincent | officer | Sale | 2,465 @ $853.62 | $2.1M | −2.6% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 93,403 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Retort Vincent | officer | Sale | 2,302 @ $860.05 | $2.0M | −2.9% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 78,440 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Retort Vincent | officer | Sale | 2,121 @ $847.52 | $1.8M | −1.9% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 109,652 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Retort Vincent | officer | Sale | 2,073 @ $846.44 | $1.8M | −1.8% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 111,773 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Kim Jae | officer | Sale | 1,998 @ $852.33 | $1.7M | −4.4% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,274 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Kim Jae | officer | Sale | 1,679 @ $856.70 | $1.4M | −4.1% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,391 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Retort Vincent | officer | Sale | 1,528 @ $849.71 | $1.3M | −1.4% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 107,022 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Retort Vincent | officer | Sale | 1,213 @ $843.60 | $1.0M | −1.0% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 115,530 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Retort Vincent | officer | Sale | 1,102 @ $848.66 | $935K | −1.0% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 108,550 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Kim Jae | officer | Sale | 1,080 @ $854.84 | $923K | −2.5% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,343 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Retort Vincent | officer | Sale | 1,053 @ $844.61 | $889K | −0.9% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 114,477 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Kim Jae | officer | Sale | 970 @ $851.31 | $826K | −2.1% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,272 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Kim Jae | officer | Sale | 851 @ $853.54 | $726K | −2.0% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,423 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Kim Jae | officer | Sale | 815 @ $857.96 | $699K | −2.1% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,576 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Retort Vincent | officer | Sale | 800 @ $855.84 | $685K | −0.9% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 89,117 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Kim Jae | officer | Sale | 732 @ $860.04 | $630K | −1.9% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,804 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Retort Vincent | officer | Sale | 631 @ $845.63 | $534K | −0.6% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 113,846 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Kim Jae | officer | Sale | 600 @ $850.44 | $510K | −1.3% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,242 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Kim Jae | officer | Sale | 600 @ $849.14 | $509K | −1.3% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,842 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Kim Jae | officer | Sale | 570 @ $845.96 | $482K | −1.2% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,389 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Sale | 500 @ $856.64 | $428K | −0.5% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 92,229 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Kim Jae | officer | Sale | 491 @ $847.94 | $416K | −1.0% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,442 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Kim Jae | officer | Sale | 456 @ $847.00 | $386K | −0.9% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,933 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Kim Jae | officer | Sale | 360 @ $844.66 | $304K | −0.7% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,959 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Retort Vincent | officer | Sale | 360 @ $842.22 | $303K | −0.3% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 116,743 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Kim Jae | officer | Sale | 280 @ $843.68 | $236K | −0.6% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,319 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Kim Jae | officer | Sale | 273 @ $855.89 | $234K | −0.7% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,070 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Kim Jae | officer | Sale | 205 @ $842.39 | $173K | −0.4% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,599 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Retort Vincent | officer | Sale | 188 @ $858.82 | $161K | −0.2% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 80,742 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Kim Jae | officer | Sale | 40 @ $858.64 | $34K | −0.1% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,536 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Sale | 500 @ $824.24 | $412K | −0.5% of holding | +12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 92,729 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
106 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | HURLSTON MICHAEL E. | director | Award / grant | 7,941 | 187,499 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Kim Jae | officer | Award / grant | 1,635 | 39,439 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Ali Wajid | director | Award / grant | 5,005 | 99,616 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Award / grant | 5,138 | 120,627 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Chang Eric | officer | Award / grant | 900 | 5,906 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Retort Vincent | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,509 | 101,929 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,705 | 93,729 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Ali Wajid | director | Withheld for tax | 6,635 | 71,851 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Kim Jae | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,926 | 38,170 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | HURLSTON MICHAEL E. | director | Withheld for tax | 6,185 | 112,794 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Ali Wajid | director | Withheld for tax | 4,093 | 78,486 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,860 | 101,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Retort Vincent | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,574 | 111,921 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Kim Jae | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,973 | 44,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Retort Vincent | officer | Withheld for tax | 32,542 | 117,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Withheld for tax | 29,056 | 105,794 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Ali Wajid | director | Withheld for tax | 28,754 | 82,579 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Kim Jae | officer | Withheld for tax | 17,011 | 47,339 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Kim Jae | officer | Award / grant | 11,634 | 42,551 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | HURLSTON MICHAEL E. | director | Award / grant | 66,764 | 185,743 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Ali Wajid | director | Award / grant | 22,760 | 80,797 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Award / grant | 22,760 | 100,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Retort Vincent | officer | Award / grant | 15,174 | 101,438 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Retort Vincent | officer | Award / grant | 63,956 | 150,220 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Award / grant | 57,103 | 134,850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Kim Jae | officer | Award / grant | 33,433 | 64,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Ali Wajid | director | Award / grant | 53,296 | 111,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | HURLSTON MICHAEL E. | director | Withheld for tax | 5,438 | 118,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,741 | 77,747 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Retort Vincent | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,299 | 86,264 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ali Wajid | director | Withheld for tax | 2,914 | 58,037 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Kim Jae | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,416 | 30,917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Johnson Julia Suzanne | director | Award / grant | 108 | 13,428 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | HERSCHER PENNY | director | Award / grant | 108 | 2,165 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Fletcher Pamela | director | Award / grant | 108 | 7,514 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Small Ian | director | Award / grant | 108 | 21,116 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Thad Trent | director | Award / grant | 108 | 1,313 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Lillie Brian | director | Award / grant | 108 | 14,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Harris Isaac Hosojiro | director | Withheld for tax | 125 | 12,957 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Harris Isaac Hosojiro | director | Award / grant | 258 | 13,082 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2026-06-03 | 2026-05-22 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2022-06-10 | 2022-05-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2022-06-10 | 2022-05-05 | $1–15K |
| Thomas R. Carper | Senate | purchase | 2021-12-04 | 2021-11-26 | $1–15K |
| Susie Lee | House | sale | 2021-07-13 | 2021-06-21 | $1–15K |
| Susie Lee | House | purchase | 2020-12-08 | 2020-11-04 | $1–15K |
| Susie Lee | House | purchase | 2020-12-08 | 2020-10-19 | $1–15K |
| Susie Lee | House | purchase | 2020-12-08 | 2020-10-07 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.