Issued 2026-08-13 at $880.41 · now $880.41 (2026-08-13, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, LITE has typically landed between $712.49 and $1161.80 — a range of −19.1% to +32.0% from the issuance price $880.41.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,760 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-07-23 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($880.41) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where LITE has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $880.41 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $880.41 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $895.63 (+1.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $796.74–$994.52
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $712.49–$1,162
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-02-06 | −38.0% | −38.0% | +0.0% |
| 2018-10-16 | −37.3% | −39.4% | +0.7% |
| 2018-10-19 | −36.5% | −39.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-01-26 | +117.6% | +0.0% | +117.6% |
| 2026-01-29 | +105.3% | +0.0% | +105.3% |
| 2026-01-23 | +102.9% | −2.0% | +102.9% |
2,760 overlapping windows · 2015-07-23 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$-16.28
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$184.71
- Analyst target · range $550.00–$1,270$1,014
- Current price · last close 2026-08-13$880.41
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-19 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Sale | 109 @ $117.60 | $13K | −0.1% of holding | +41.9% | +431.3% | 76,450 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-18 | Ali Wajid | officer | Sale | 2,222 @ $116.45 | $259K | −4.7% of holding | +34.8% | +392.2% | 45,470 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Johnson Julia Suzanne | director | Sale | 1,250 @ $119.06 | $149K | −5.4% of holding | +34.8% | +392.2% | 22,037 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Kim Jae | officer | Sale | 912 @ $116.45 | $106K | −3.0% of holding | +34.8% | +392.2% | 29,820 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Sale | 109 @ $116.45 | $13K | −0.1% of holding | +34.8% | +392.2% | 76,559 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Sale | 109 @ $113.61 | $12K | −0.1% of holding | +44.9% | +411.5% | 76,668 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
21 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-21 | Retort Vincent | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,666 | 135,913 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-21 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,487 | 97,941 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-21 | Ali Wajid | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,067 | 67,315 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-21 | Kim Jae | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,538 | 37,972 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-21 | Sepe Matthew Joseph | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,309 | 42,858 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-21 | Sepe Matthew Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 4,519 | 47,167 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-21 | Kim Jae | officer | Award / grant | 2,057 | 43,510 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-21 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Award / grant | 9,218 | 108,428 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-21 | Ali Wajid | officer | Award / grant | 9,152 | 77,382 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-21 | Retort Vincent | officer | Award / grant | 10,169 | 147,579 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-19 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Award / grant | 22,760 | 99,210 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-19 | HURLSTON MICHAEL E. | director | Award / grant | 34,393 | 149,597 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-19 | Kim Jae | officer | Award / grant | 11,633 | 41,453 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-19 | Retort Vincent | officer | Award / grant | 15,173 | 137,410 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-19 | Sepe Matthew Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 5,057 | 42,648 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-19 | Ali Wajid | officer | Award / grant | 22,760 | 68,230 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Retort Vincent | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,753 | 122,237 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Wupen Yuen | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,540 | 76,777 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Ali Wajid | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,294 | 47,692 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Sepe Matthew Joseph | officer | Withheld for tax | 837 | 37,591 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Kim Jae | officer | Withheld for tax | 802 | 30,732 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +28 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2026-06-03 | 2026-05-22 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2022-06-10 | 2022-05-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2022-06-10 | 2022-05-05 | $1–15K |
| Thomas R. Carper | Senate | purchase | 2021-12-04 | 2021-11-26 | $1–15K |
| Susie Lee | House | sale | 2021-07-13 | 2021-06-21 | $1–15K |
| Susie Lee | House | purchase | 2020-12-08 | 2020-11-04 | $1–15K |
| Susie Lee | House | purchase | 2020-12-08 | 2020-10-19 | $1–15K |
| Susie Lee | House | purchase | 2020-12-08 | 2020-10-07 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.