LION · TickerCove

LIONLionsgate Studios Corp.Technology · Media & Entertainmentas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.31 · now $11.31 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LION has typically landed between $9.42 and $14.18 — a range of −16.7% to +25.4% from the issuance price $11.31.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

571 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-05-07 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.31) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$11.31 · 51% of range

$5.91 low$16.4 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.3%

typical move · IQR 18.1%

−16.7%worst (p90)+25.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where LION has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.31 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $11.31 (+0.0%)
typical $11.46 (+1.3%)
middle 50% $10.44–$12.48
90% range $9.42–$14.18

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 571 windows spanning 2024-05-07 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2024-05-08	−38.9%	−38.9%	+0.0%
2024-05-07	−32.5%	−32.9%	+9.4%
2024-05-09	−32.1%	−34.1%	+0.0%
3 best
2026-03-27	+33.0%	+0.0%	+35.5%
2026-04-01	+32.9%	+0.0%	+32.9%
2025-01-16	+32.6%	+0.0%	+34.5%

571 overlapping windows · 2024-05-07 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

−1.1%

n=2

Feb

50%

+7.1%

n=2

Mar

50%

−2.9%

n=2

Apr

50%

+13.8%

n=2

May

50%

+7.1%

n=2

Jun

33%

−5.4%

n=3

Jul

33%

−7.2%

n=3

Aug

33%

−3.7%

n=3

Sep

67%

+3.7%

n=3

Oct

−5.3%

n=2

Nov

100%

+10.6%

n=2

Dec

100%

+13.8%

n=2

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-08	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Purchase	11,755,412	—	ownership Δ n/a	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	11,755,412	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-08	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Sale	1,469,450	—	−100.0% of holding	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-08	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Sale	3,701,988	—	−100.0% of holding	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-08	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Sale	25,173,882	—	−100.0% of holding	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-08	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Purchase	797,526	—	ownership Δ n/a	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	797,526	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-08	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Purchase	1,916,271	—	ownership Δ n/a	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	1,916,271	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-08	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Purchase	11,154,680	—	ownership Δ n/a	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	11,154,680	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-08	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Purchase	671,924	—	ownership Δ n/a	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	671,924	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-08	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Sale	499,765	—	−74.4% of holding	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	172,159	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-08	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Purchase	499,765	—	ownership Δ n/a	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	499,765	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-08	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Purchase	15,804,919	—	ownership Δ n/a	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	15,804,919	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-08	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Sale	11,755,412	—	−74.4% of holding	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	4,049,507	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-08	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Purchase	11,755,412	—	ownership Δ n/a	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	11,755,412	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-08	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Sale	3,701,988	—	−100.0% of holding	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-08	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Sale	1,469,450	—	−100.0% of holding	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-08	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Sale	25,173,882	—	−100.0% of holding	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-08	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Purchase	797,526	—	ownership Δ n/a	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	797,526	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-08	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Purchase	1,916,271	—	ownership Δ n/a	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	1,916,271	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-08	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Purchase	11,154,680	—	ownership Δ n/a	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	11,154,680	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-08	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Purchase	671,924	—	ownership Δ n/a	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	671,924	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-08	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Sale	499,765	—	−74.4% of holding	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	172,159	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-08	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Purchase	499,765	—	ownership Δ n/a	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	499,765	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-08	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Purchase	15,804,919	—	ownership Δ n/a	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	15,804,919	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-08	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Sale	11,755,412	—	−74.4% of holding	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	4,049,507	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-23	BURNS MICHAEL RAYMOND	director	Sale	21,748 @ $9.01	$196K	−0.7% of holding	+6.7%	+76.1%	3,061,213	Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2025-12-22	FELTHEIMER JON	director	Sale	195,000 @ $8.28	$1.6M	−5.3% of holding	+16.0%	+81.4%	3,471,012	Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2025-12-18	Goldsmith Brian	officer	Sale	25,000 @ $8.54	$213K	−1.7% of holding	+9.4%	+66.5%	1,485,754	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-09	Liberty 77 Capital L.P.	director	Purchase	72,089 @ $5.59	$403K	+0.2% of holding	+4.0%	+46.4%	37,548,125	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-07	Liberty 77 Capital L.P.	director	Purchase	500,000 @ $5.63	$2.8M	+1.4% of holding	+2.0%	+48.0%	37,476,036	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-26	Liberty 77 Capital L.P.	director	Purchase	79,766 @ $5.74	$458K	+0.2% of holding	+9.0%	+40.2%	36,976,036	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-20	Liberty 77 Capital L.P.	director	Purchase	420,234 @ $5.65	$2.4M	+1.2% of holding	+6.5%	+33.9%	36,896,270	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-17	Liberty 77 Capital L.P.	director	Purchase	487,400 @ $5.95	$2.9M	+1.4% of holding	+2.9%	+27.6%	36,476,036	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-29	Liberty 77 Capital L.P.	director	Purchase	3,300,000 @ $6.50	$21.4M	+10.1% of holding	−19.2%	−7.6%	35,988,636	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-29	Liberty 77 Capital L.P.	director	Purchase	154,045 @ $6.63	$1.0M	+0.5% of holding	−19.2%	−7.6%	32,688,636	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-28	Liberty 77 Capital L.P.	director	Purchase	3,965,723 @ $6.65	$26.4M	+13.9% of holding	−16.9%	−7.9%	32,534,591	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

183 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-03	FELTHEIMER JON	director	Withheld for tax	196,902	4,197,543	Form 4
2026-07-03	FELTHEIMER JON	director	Withheld for tax	103,669	4,290,776	Form 4
2026-07-03	BURNS MICHAEL RAYMOND	director	Withheld for tax	35,064	3,218,545	Form 4
2026-07-03	Goldsmith Brian	officer	Withheld for tax	35,064	1,733,882	Form 4
2026-07-03	Goldsmith Brian	officer	Withheld for tax	35,064	1,700,030	Form 4
2026-07-03	BURNS MICHAEL RAYMOND	director	Withheld for tax	35,064	3,252,407	Form 4
2026-07-03	BARGE JAMES W	director	Withheld for tax	32,560	1,893,634	Form 4
2026-07-03	BARGE JAMES W	director	Withheld for tax	32,560	1,925,067	Form 4
2026-07-03	Tobey Bruce	officer	Withheld for tax	10,018	411,811	Form 4
2026-07-03	Tobey Bruce	officer	Withheld for tax	10,018	421,483	Form 4
2026-07-03	BARGE JAMES W	director	Award / grant	63,993	1,957,627	Form 4
2026-07-03	BURNS MICHAEL RAYMOND	director	Award / grant	68,926	3,287,471	Form 4
2026-07-03	Tobey Bruce	officer	Award / grant	19,690	431,501	Form 4
2026-07-03	Goldsmith Brian	officer	Award / grant	68,916	1,768,946	Form 4
2026-07-03	FELTHEIMER JON	director	Award / grant	196,902	4,394,445	Form 4
2026-07-01	FELTHEIMER JON	director	Withheld for tax	128,378	4,278,990	Form 4
2026-07-01	FELTHEIMER JON	director	Withheld for tax	128,378	4,394,445	Form 4
2026-07-01	FELTHEIMER JON	director	Withheld for tax	92,558	4,324,127	Form 4
2026-07-01	FELTHEIMER JON	director	Withheld for tax	92,558	4,407,368	Form 4
2026-07-01	BURNS MICHAEL RAYMOND	director	Withheld for tax	53,668	3,202,012	Form 4
2026-07-01	BURNS MICHAEL RAYMOND	director	Withheld for tax	53,668	3,253,823	Form 4
2026-07-01	BARGE JAMES W	director	Withheld for tax	46,524	1,881,280	Form 4
2026-07-01	BARGE JAMES W	director	Withheld for tax	46,524	1,926,194	Form 4
2026-07-01	Goldsmith Brian	officer	Withheld for tax	43,422	1,693,174	Form 4
2026-07-01	Goldsmith Brian	officer	Withheld for tax	43,422	1,735,094	Form 4
2026-07-01	BARGE JAMES W	director	Withheld for tax	33,542	1,895,422	Form 4
2026-07-01	BARGE JAMES W	director	Withheld for tax	33,542	1,927,804	Form 4
2026-07-01	Goldsmith Brian	officer	Withheld for tax	31,306	1,706,372	Form 4
2026-07-01	Goldsmith Brian	officer	Withheld for tax	31,306	1,736,596	Form 4
2026-07-01	Tobey Bruce	officer	Withheld for tax	14,887	407,456	Form 4
2026-07-01	Tobey Bruce	officer	Withheld for tax	14,887	421,829	Form 4
2026-07-01	Tobey Bruce	officer	Withheld for tax	11,628	411,117	Form 4
2026-07-01	Tobey Bruce	officer	Withheld for tax	11,628	422,343	Form 4
2026-07-01	BURNS MICHAEL RAYMOND	director	Withheld for tax	6,203	3,247,620	Form 4
2026-07-01	BURNS MICHAEL RAYMOND	director	Withheld for tax	6,203	3,253,609	Form 4
2026-07-01	BARGE JAMES W	director	Award / grant	65,924	1,961,346	Form 4
2026-07-01	BARGE JAMES W	director	Award / grant	237,026	1,928,964	Form 4
2026-07-01	BARGE JAMES W	director	Award / grant	91,438	1,972,718	Form 4
2026-07-01	BURNS MICHAEL RAYMOND	director	Award / grant	133,067	3,255,680	Form 4
2026-07-01	BURNS MICHAEL RAYMOND	director	Award / grant	105,479	3,307,491	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i