LINLinde plcBasic Materials · Chemicals - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $462.09 · now $462.09 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LIN has typically landed between $423.04 and $506.98 — a range of −8.4% to +9.7% from the issuance price $462.09.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($462.09) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where LIN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $462.09 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$423.04worst · -8.4%$506.98best · +9.7%
  • now $462.09 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $466.73 (+1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $451.66–$481.8
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $423.04–$506.98
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−32.5%−32.5%+0.0%
2020-02-20−31.3%−31.3%+0.0%
2020-02-21−31.0%−31.0%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-05+28.4%−1.4%+28.4%
2008-12-04+27.2%+0.0%+27.2%
2009-03-03+25.7%−1.6%+27.3%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$237.0B
market cap
$15.06
EPS (TTM)
34.0
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-31
next earnings
Revenue$34.0B
'20'25
Net income$6.9B
'20'25
Free cash flow$5.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr20.3%
'20'25
ROE · by yr18.0%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.71
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 16 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $462.09$340.19$619.24
  • DCF (intrinsic)$526.14
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.9× · n=16$359.44
  • Analyst target · range $525.00–$600.00$560.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$462.09

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
−0.7%
n=18
Feb
63%
+1.7%
n=19
Mar
74%
+3.8%
n=19
Apr
79%
+2.6%
n=19
May
58%
+0.4%
n=19
Jun
68%
+1.2%
n=19
Jul
53%
+2.0%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.5%
n=19
Sep
37%
−1.5%
n=19
Oct
61%
+0.9%
n=18
Nov
78%
+2.5%
n=18
Dec
61%
+0.8%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$547$3872026-08-18: 1 insider purchase, $48K — Reynolds Paula Rosput2026-05-15: 1 insider sale, $2.2M — WOOD ROBERT L2026-05-14: 1 insider sale, $448K — WOOD ROBERT L2026-03-10: 3 insider sales, $5.2M — Bichara Guillermo, Durbin Sean …2026-02-24: 1 insider sale, $502K — Patwari Binod2026-02-17: 1 insider sale, $4.5M — Bichara Guillermo2025-12-08: 1 insider purchase, $1000K — Lamba Sanjiv2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $23.8M2025-12: 1 open-market purchase, $1000K2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $5.0M2026-03: 3 open-market sales, $5.2M2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $2.6M2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $48K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Reynolds Paula Rosput — Purchase on 2026-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WOOD ROBERT L — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector WOOD ROBERT L — Sale on 2026-05-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Bichara Guillermo — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Durbin Sean — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Durbin Sean — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Patwari Binod — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bichara Guillermo — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Lamba Sanjiv — Purchase on 2025-12-08, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-18Reynolds Paula RosputdirectorPurchase100 @ $479.12$48K+14.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open816Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-15WOOD ROBERT LdirectorSale4,335 @ $506.39$2.2M−31.9% of holding+1.2%not yet — horizon still open9,248Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-14WOOD ROBERT LdirectorSale880 @ $508.76$448K−6.1% of holding+1.4%not yet — horizon still open13,583Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-10Bichara GuillermoofficerSale4,357 @ $480.79$2.1M−16.4% of holding+5.0%−14.9%22,138Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10Durbin SeanofficerSale4,114 @ $477.78$2.0M−33.5% of holding+5.0%−14.9%8,151Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10Durbin SeanofficerSale2,406 @ $476.41$1.1M−22.8% of holding+5.0%−14.9%8,151Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-24Patwari BinodofficerSale999 @ $502.76$502K−18.7% of holding+2.2%−14.7%4,339Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-17Bichara GuillermoofficerSale9,455 @ $480.45$4.5M−29.9% of holding+4.8%−13.1%22,138Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-08Lamba SanjivdirectorPurchase2,520 @ $396.68$1000K+2.9% of holding+11.8%+24.9%90,794Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-07ANGEL STEPHEN FdirectorSale50,309 @ $473.38$23.8M−9.5% of holding−1.2%−13.7%480,543Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-22Durbin SeanofficerSale4,637 @ $456.19$2.1M−36.3% of holding−3.1%−23.0%8,151Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-05-22Durbin SeanofficerSale2,624 @ $456.82$1.2M−24.4% of holding−3.1%−23.0%8,151Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-05-16Strauss David PofficerSale1,987 @ $457.04$908K−8.1% of holding+0.4%−20.7%22,639Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-11Bichara GuillermoofficerSale4,833 @ $461.65$2.2M−17.5% of holding−0.4%−12.9%22,778Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

286 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-01GRANT HUGHdirectorAward / grant64579Form 4
2026-07-01Reynolds Paula RosputdirectorAward / grant16145Form 4
2026-06-08Innocenzi StefanosofficerWithheld for tax2,0621,973Form 4
2026-06-08Innocenzi StefanosofficerOption exercise4,0350Form 4
2026-06-08Innocenzi StefanosofficerOption exercise4,0354,035Form 4
2026-04-01GRANT HUGHdirectorAward / grant69516Form 4
2026-04-01Reynolds Paula RosputdirectorAward / grant17129Form 4
2026-03-10Durbin SeanofficerWithheld for tax4,63910,557Form 4
2026-03-10Durbin SeanofficerOption exercise7,04515,196Form 4
2026-03-10Durbin SeanofficerOption exercise7,0450Form 4
2026-03-09Lamba SanjivdirectorWithheld for tax9,218101,468Form 4
2026-03-09White Matthew JofficerWithheld for tax3,77180,015Form 4
2026-03-09Lamba SanjivdirectorWithheld for tax3,251105,232Form 4
2026-03-09Lamba SanjivdirectorWithheld for tax3,086109,161Form 4
2026-03-09Bichara GuillermoofficerWithheld for tax2,20724,693Form 4
2026-03-09Durbin SeanofficerWithheld for tax2,11210,565Form 4
2026-03-09White Matthew JofficerWithheld for tax1,33081,555Form 4
2026-03-09White Matthew JofficerWithheld for tax1,33083,095Form 4
2026-03-09Glazer BenjaminofficerWithheld for tax1,18613,861Form 4
2026-03-09Bichara GuillermoofficerWithheld for tax77926,495Form 4
2026-03-09Bichara GuillermoofficerWithheld for tax77925,594Form 4
2026-03-09Durbin SeanofficerWithheld for tax74511,415Form 4
2026-03-09Durbin SeanofficerWithheld for tax74512,265Form 4
2026-03-09Glazer BenjaminofficerWithheld for tax44514,376Form 4
2026-03-09Glazer BenjaminofficerWithheld for tax44514,891Form 4
2026-03-09Pfann OliverofficerWithheld for tax3283,459Form 4
2026-03-09Hoyt Kelcey EofficerWithheld for tax28521,652Form 4
2026-03-09Bacher DesireeofficerWithheld for tax228638Form 4
2026-03-09Hoyt Kelcey EofficerWithheld for tax14122,050Form 4
2026-03-09Patwari BinodofficerWithheld for tax1214,766Form 4
2026-03-09Pfann OliverofficerWithheld for tax1183,683Form 4
2026-03-09Pfann OliverofficerWithheld for tax1183,571Form 4
2026-03-09Hoyt Kelcey EofficerWithheld for tax10121,871Form 4
2026-03-09Bacher DesireeofficerWithheld for tax97979Form 4
2026-03-09Bacher DesireeofficerWithheld for tax82816Form 4
2026-03-09Enders ThomasdirectorWithheld for tax5111,014Form 4
2026-03-09Kaeser JosefdirectorWithheld for tax503,025Form 4
2026-03-09Patwari BinodofficerWithheld for tax434,918Form 4
2026-03-09Patwari BinodofficerWithheld for tax435,070Form 4
2026-03-09Ossadnik VictoriadirectorWithheld for tax383,768Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatesale2026-07-212026-03-27$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Thomas H. Kean JrHousepurchase2026-04-132026-03-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-10$15–50K
Thomas H. Kean JrHousepurchase2026-03-182026-02-18$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-06$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-02-132026-01-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-01-122025-12-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-03$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-10$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.