Issued 2026-09-16 at $361.04 · now $361.04 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LII has typically landed between $316.96 and $410.54 — a range of −12.2% to +13.7% from the issuance price $361.04.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($361.04) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where LII has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $361.04 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $361.04 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $366.21 (+1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $346.16–$386.26
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $316.96–$410.54
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2011-07-21 | −33.5% | −33.5% | +1.2% |
| 2011-07-22 | −33.2% | −34.2% | +0.0% |
| 2011-07-20 | −33.0% | −33.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-19 | +54.3% | −3.8% | +54.3% |
| 2008-11-20 | +50.6% | +0.0% | +60.5% |
| 2008-11-21 | +36.4% | +0.0% | +46.7% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$18.8B
market cap
$22.20
EPS (TTM)
24.4
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$5.2B
'20'25
Net income$786M
'20'25
Free cash flow$639M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr15.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr67.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.77
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$359.68
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$680.50
- Analyst target · range $450.00–$650.00$550.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$361.04
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
61%
+0.3%
n=18
Feb
68%
+3.0%
n=19
Mar
63%
+0.6%
n=19
Apr
42%
+0.5%
n=19
May
53%
+1.6%
n=19
Jun
68%
+2.9%
n=19
Jul
63%
+3.3%
n=19
Aug
53%
−0.7%
n=19
Sep
26%
−3.0%
n=19
Oct
50%
+2.5%
n=18
Nov
89%
+5.2%
n=18
Dec
56%
+1.1%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Kosel Chris | officer | Sale | 971 @ $544.80 | $529K | −47.1% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,090 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Wall Shane D | director | Sale | 100 @ $540.01 | $54K | −4.3% of holding | −12.1% | −37.8% | 2,205 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | TESKE TODD J | director | Sale | 700 @ $533.45 | $373K | −9.2% of holding | −1.2% | −30.6% | 6,881 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Kosel Chris | officer | Sale | 254 @ $536.50 | $136K | −18.9% of holding | −1.2% | −30.6% | 1,090 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | TESKE TODD J | director | Sale | 600 @ $491.85 | $295K | −7.3% of holding | +4.7% | −4.0% | 7,581 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Kosel Chris | officer | Sale | 300 @ $591.86 | $178K | −19.0% of holding | −13.4% | −12.3% | 1,282 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 115 @ $609.39 | $70K | −1.6% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 7,055 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 110 @ $607.91 | $67K | −1.4% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 7,640 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 105 @ $609.10 | $64K | −1.4% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 7,275 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 86 @ $606.81 | $52K | −1.0% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 8,271 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 80 @ $607.73 | $49K | −1.0% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 7,849 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 80 @ $607.50 | $49K | −1.0% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 8,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 75 @ $609.30 | $46K | −1.0% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 7,170 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 61 @ $609.73 | $37K | −0.9% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 6,990 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 60 @ $607.95 | $36K | −0.8% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 7,580 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 50 @ $607.18 | $30K | −0.6% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 8,110 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 49 @ $607.76 | $30K | −0.6% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 7,770 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 40 @ $609.52 | $24K | −0.6% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 6,940 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 40 @ $607.68 | $24K | −0.5% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 7,930 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 40 @ $607.17 | $24K | −0.5% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 8,160 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 40 @ $606.84 | $24K | −0.5% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 8,231 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 30 @ $609.12 | $18K | −0.4% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 7,245 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 30 @ $608.39 | $18K | −0.4% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 7,480 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 30 @ $608.22 | $18K | −0.4% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 7,520 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 30 @ $607.77 | $18K | −0.4% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 6,910 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 30 @ $607.76 | $18K | −0.4% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 7,819 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 30 @ $607.60 | $18K | −0.4% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 7,970 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 29 @ $607.05 | $18K | −0.4% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 8,200 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 20 @ $608.87 | $12K | −0.3% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 7,380 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 20 @ $608.78 | $12K | −0.3% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 7,410 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 20 @ $608.48 | $12K | −0.3% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 7,440 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 20 @ $608.42 | $12K | −0.3% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 7,460 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 20 @ $608.14 | $12K | −0.3% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 7,560 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 20 @ $607.80 | $12K | −0.3% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 7,750 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 20 @ $607.20 | $12K | −0.2% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 8,090 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 10 @ $609.76 | $6K | −0.1% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 6,980 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 10 @ $608.84 | $6K | −0.1% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 7,400 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 10 @ $608.52 | $6K | −0.1% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 7,430 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 10 @ $608.37 | $6K | −0.1% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 7,510 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 10 @ $608.15 | $6K | −0.1% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 7,550 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 10 @ $607.35 | $6K | −0.1% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 8,080 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 4 @ $609.53 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 7,051 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 2 @ $606.93 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 8,229 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Quintos Karen H | director | Sale | 1 @ $607.69 | $608 | −0.0% of holding | −12.7% | −12.9% | 7,929 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-23 | NORRIS JOHN W III | director | Sale | 7,613 @ $663.35 | $5.1M | −3.8% of holding | −13.9% | −31.7% | 191,993 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | NORRIS JOHN W III | director | Sale | 4,152 @ $669.58 | $2.8M | −2.2% of holding | −13.9% | −31.7% | 181,142 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | NORRIS JOHN W III | director | Sale | 3,566 @ $668.20 | $2.4M | −1.9% of holding | −13.9% | −31.7% | 185,294 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | NORRIS JOHN W III | director | Sale | 2,833 @ $664.52 | $1.9M | −1.5% of holding | −13.9% | −31.7% | 189,160 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | Sessa Daniel M | officer | Sale | 2,143 @ $670.00 | $1.4M | −6.4% of holding | −13.9% | −31.7% | 31,574 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | NORRIS JOHN W III | director | Sale | 1,824 @ $670.58 | $1.2M | −1.0% of holding | −13.9% | −31.7% | 179,318 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | NORRIS JOHN W III | director | Sale | 700 @ $660.51 | $462K | −0.3% of holding | −13.9% | −31.7% | 200,206 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | NORRIS JOHN W III | director | Sale | 634 @ $672.29 | $426K | −0.4% of holding | −13.9% | −31.7% | 178,577 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | NORRIS JOHN W III | director | Sale | 600 @ $661.52 | $397K | −0.3% of holding | −13.9% | −31.7% | 199,606 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | NORRIS JOHN W III | director | Sale | 300 @ $665.09 | $200K | −0.2% of holding | −13.9% | −31.7% | 188,860 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | Sessa Daniel M | officer | Sale | 147 @ $663.24 | $97K | −0.4% of holding | −13.9% | −31.7% | 34,123 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | NORRIS JOHN W III | director | Sale | 107 @ $671.41 | $72K | −0.1% of holding | −13.9% | −31.7% | 179,211 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | Sessa Daniel M | officer | Sale | 66 @ $669.13 | $44K | −0.2% of holding | −13.9% | −31.7% | 34,041 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | Sessa Daniel M | officer | Sale | 65 @ $674.64 | $44K | −0.2% of holding | −13.9% | −31.7% | 33,899 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | Sessa Daniel M | officer | Sale | 62 @ $677.06 | $42K | −0.2% of holding | −13.9% | −31.7% | 33,837 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | Sessa Daniel M | officer | Sale | 54 @ $658.61 | $36K | −0.2% of holding | −13.9% | −31.7% | 34,302 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
111 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | NORRIS JOHN W III | director | Gift | 8,988 | 168,942 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | NORRIS JOHN W III | director | Gift | 990 | 177,930 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Somasundaram Sivasankaran | director | Disposition | 343 | 767 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Somasundaram Sivasankaran | director | Award / grant | 343 | 1,110 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Embree Tracy A | director | Award / grant | 343 | 343 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Buck Sherry | director | Award / grant | 343 | 2,306 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Vander Ark Jon | director | Award / grant | 343 | 617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Wall Shane D | director | Award / grant | 343 | 2,548 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | NORRIS JOHN W III | director | Award / grant | 343 | 178,920 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Quintos Karen H | director | Award / grant | 343 | 7,253 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | TESKE TODD J | director | Award / grant | 343 | 7,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Somasundaram Sivasankaran | director | Award / grant | 51 | 767 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Maskara Alok | director | Withheld for tax | 7,549 | 40,479 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Sessa Daniel M | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,554 | 34,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | BEDAPUDI PRAKASH | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,474 | 21,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Nassab Joseph | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,246 | 11,063 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Kosel Chris | officer | Withheld for tax | 313 | 2,061 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Quenzer Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 197 | 4,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Kosel Chris | officer | Award / grant | 1,284 | 2,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Quenzer Michael | officer | Award / grant | 805 | 5,092 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Sessa Daniel M | officer | Award / grant | 4,413 | 36,194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Nassab Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 3,645 | 12,309 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | BEDAPUDI PRAKASH | officer | Award / grant | 4,221 | 22,929 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Maskara Alok | director | Award / grant | 19,184 | 48,028 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Sessa Daniel M | officer | Award / grant | 1,776 | 1,776 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | BEDAPUDI PRAKASH | officer | Award / grant | 738 | 18,708 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | BEDAPUDI PRAKASH | officer | Award / grant | 1,776 | 1,776 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Nassab Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 767 | 8,664 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Nassab Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 1,847 | 1,847 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Martin Sarah Rachel | officer | Award / grant | 708 | 2,355 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Martin Sarah Rachel | officer | Award / grant | 1,705 | 1,705 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Maskara Alok | director | Award / grant | 3,953 | 28,844 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Maskara Alok | director | Award / grant | 9,519 | 9,519 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Quenzer Michael | officer | Award / grant | 2,131 | 2,131 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Quenzer Michael | officer | Award / grant | 885 | 4,287 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Kosel Chris | officer | Award / grant | 201 | 1,344 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Kosel Chris | officer | Award / grant | 483 | 483 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Brown Monica M. | officer | Award / grant | 472 | 1,803 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Brown Monica M. | officer | Award / grant | 1,137 | 1,137 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Sessa Daniel M | officer | Award / grant | 738 | 31,781 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-02-06 | 2025-01-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-11-08 | 2024-10-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-07-08 | 2024-06-24 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-07-08 | 2024-06-20 | $50–100K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2022-03-08 | 2022-02-14 | $1–15K |
| Greg Gianforte | Senate | sale | 2020-11-09 | 2020-10-13 | $1–15K |
| Carlos Curbelo | House | purchase | 2018-09-25 | 2018-08-28 | $1–15K |
| Zoe Lofgren | House | sale | 2018-09-13 | 2018-08-30 | $1–15K |
| Thomas Macarthur | House | purchase | 2018-07-10 | 2018-06-07 | $15–50K |
| Greg Gianforte | Senate | purchase | 2018-06-15 | 2018-06-07 | $100–250K |
| Zoe Lofgren | House | purchase | 2017-07-18 | 2017-06-15 | $1–15K |
| Brad Ashford | House | sale | 2015-04-30 | 2015-04-13 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.