Issued 2026-09-16 at $40.71 · now $40.71 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LIF has typically landed between $31.65 and $51.83 — a range of −22.2% to +27.3% from the issuance price $40.71.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
550 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-06-06 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($40.71) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where LIF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $40.71 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $40.71 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $41.11 (+1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $35.95–$46.27
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $31.65–$51.83
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 550 windows spanning 2024-06-06 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-08-10 | −34.9% | −35.2% | +0.0% |
| 2026-08-04 | −32.5% | −34.5% | +1.0% |
| 2026-08-07 | −31.8% | −33.8% | +2.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-04-11 | +70.6% | +0.0% | +70.6% |
| 2025-04-21 | +67.6% | +0.0% | +67.6% |
| 2025-04-16 | +66.0% | +0.0% | +66.0% |
550 overlapping windows · 2024-06-06 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+0.1%
n=2
Feb
0%
−4.6%
n=2
Mar
0%
−18.8%
n=2
Apr
100%
+8.7%
n=2
May
50%
+23.4%
n=2
Jun
100%
+16.5%
n=2
Jul
67%
+6.2%
n=3
Aug
67%
+5.0%
n=3
Sep
33%
+4.1%
n=3
Oct
50%
+0.9%
n=2
Nov
50%
−2.2%
n=2
Dec
0%
−17.9%
n=2
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Prober Charles J. | director | Sale | 7,930 @ $42.12 | $334K | −6.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 109,930 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | COGHLAN JOHN PHILIP | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $41.97 | $168K | −19.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 16,431 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Synge James | director | Sale | 27,466 @ $44.31 | $1.2M | −12.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 191,694 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Synge James | director | Sale | 5,833 @ $45.05 | $263K | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 219,160 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Hulls Chris | director | Sale | 231,434 @ $46.78 | $10.8M | −36.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 400,622 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Hulls Chris | director | Sale | 18,566 @ $47.58 | $883K | −4.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 382,056 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Prober Charles J. | director | Sale | 7,930 @ $48.59 | $385K | −6.7% of holding | −9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 109,930 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Morin Brit | director | Sale | 15,582 @ $65.00 | $1.0M | −52.1% of holding | −33.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,340 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Hulls Chris | director | Sale | 17,020 @ $63.08 | $1.1M | −3.8% of holding | −31.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 429,534 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Morin Brit | director | Sale | 10,701 @ $60.00 | $642K | −34.7% of holding | −31.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,157 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Hulls Chris | director | Sale | 9,980 @ $63.77 | $636K | −2.3% of holding | −31.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 419,554 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | COGHLAN JOHN PHILIP | director | Sale | 2,600 @ $54.90 | $143K | −11.3% of holding | −26.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,431 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | COGHLAN JOHN PHILIP | director | Sale | 1,400 @ $54.66 | $77K | −5.7% of holding | −26.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,031 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Hulls Chris | director | Sale | 14,345 @ $55.74 | $800K | −3.3% of holding | −10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 419,554 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Prober Charles J. | director | Sale | 7,930 @ $53.05 | $421K | −6.7% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 109,911 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | COGHLAN JOHN PHILIP | director | Sale | 3,798 @ $56.04 | $213K | −13.4% of holding | −5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,633 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | COGHLAN JOHN PHILIP | director | Sale | 202 @ $56.57 | $11K | −0.8% of holding | −5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,431 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Morin Brit | director | Sale | 4,655 @ $55.00 | $256K | −15.2% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,975 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Hulls Chris | director | Sale | 16,042 @ $47.07 | $755K | −3.8% of holding | +11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 406,899 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Prober Charles J. | director | Sale | 7,930 @ $46.07 | $365K | −6.7% of holding | +13.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 109,911 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | COGHLAN JOHN PHILIP | director | Sale | 3,796 @ $43.95 | $167K | −11.7% of holding | +20.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,635 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | COGHLAN JOHN PHILIP | director | Sale | 204 @ $44.64 | $9K | −0.7% of holding | +20.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,431 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Hulls Chris | director | Sale | 16,379 @ $40.34 | $661K | −3.9% of holding | +40.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 403,485 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Prober Charles J. | director | Sale | 7,930 @ $40.44 | $321K | −7.0% of holding | +12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 105,456 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | COGHLAN JOHN PHILIP | director | Sale | 3,736 @ $44.12 | $165K | −10.3% of holding | −2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,695 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | COGHLAN JOHN PHILIP | director | Sale | 264 @ $44.67 | $12K | −0.8% of holding | −2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,431 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Hulls Chris | director | Sale | 16,105 @ $45.51 | $733K | −3.9% of holding | −21.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 399,809 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Antonoff Lauren | director | Sale | 2,716 @ $45.23 | $123K | −0.9% of holding | −21.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 309,781 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-13 | Prober Charles J. | director | Sale | 7,930 @ $37.27 | $296K | −7.0% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 105,456 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | COGHLAN JOHN PHILIP | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $41.32 | $165K | −9.9% of holding | +1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,431 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Hulls Chris | director | Sale | 15,133 @ $39.43 | $597K | −4.3% of holding | +16.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 334,319 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Prober Charles J. | director | Sale | 7,930 @ $41.40 | $328K | −7.0% of holding | −8.6% | −8.1% | 105,456 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Wiadrowski David | director | Sale | 5,957 @ $41.34 | $246K | −13.1% of holding | −8.6% | −8.1% | 39,679 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | COGHLAN JOHN PHILIP | director | Sale | 2,758 @ $46.56 | $128K | −35.3% of holding | −7.5% | −22.9% | 5,065 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | COGHLAN JOHN PHILIP | director | Sale | 1,242 @ $45.29 | $56K | −13.7% of holding | −7.5% | −22.9% | 7,823 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Antonoff Lauren | director | Sale | 17,153 @ $44.86 | $769K | −5.6% of holding | −6.8% | −17.2% | 288,232 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Prober Charles J. | director | Sale | 7,930 @ $49.02 | $389K | −7.0% of holding | −14.1% | −12.2% | 105,456 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Prober Charles J. | director | Sale | 7,930 @ $61.98 | $492K | −7.0% of holding | −17.2% | −20.0% | 105,456 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Synge James | director | Sale | 2,448 @ $63.63 | $156K | −61.7% of holding | −13.7% | −34.6% | 1,518 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Synge James | director | Sale | 1,518 @ $64.49 | $98K | −100.0% of holding | −13.7% | −34.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Haro Alex | director | Sale | 1,165 @ $63.63 | $74K | −61.7% of holding | −13.7% | −34.6% | 722 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Hulls Chris | director | Sale | 1,139 @ $63.63 | $72K | −61.7% of holding | −13.7% | −34.6% | 707 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Haro Alex | director | Sale | 722 @ $64.49 | $47K | −100.0% of holding | −13.7% | −34.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Hulls Chris | director | Sale | 707 @ $64.49 | $46K | −100.0% of holding | −13.7% | −34.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Prober Charles J. | director | Sale | 7,930 @ $68.30 | $542K | −7.0% of holding | −9.6% | −36.8% | 105,456 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | COGHLAN JOHN PHILIP | director | Sale | 2,025 @ $76.82 | $156K | −13.3% of holding | −17.4% | −47.8% | 13,210 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | COGHLAN JOHN PHILIP | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $77.96 | $86K | −8.3% of holding | −17.4% | −47.8% | 12,110 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Antonoff Lauren | director | Sale | 19,442 @ $76.24 | $1.5M | −6.0% of holding | −15.9% | −46.9% | 305,385 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Goines Mark | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $74.19 | $1.1M | −20.9% of holding | −17.2% | −48.0% | 56,809 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Haro Alex | director | Sale | 52,111 @ $76.90 | $4.0M | −5.7% of holding | −15.6% | −50.3% | 861,315 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-01 | Haro Alex | director | Sale | 47,889 @ $75.95 | $3.6M | −5.0% of holding | −15.6% | −50.3% | 913,426 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-26 | Hulls Chris | director | Sale | 100,465 @ $78.62 | $7.9M | −22.1% of holding | −16.6% | −50.9% | 354,948 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-26 | Hulls Chris | director | Sale | 19,535 @ $79.11 | $1.5M | −5.5% of holding | −16.6% | −50.9% | 335,413 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | Hulls Chris | director | Sale | 226,556 @ $76.91 | $17.4M | −29.0% of holding | −18.5% | −58.9% | 554,942 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Hulls Chris | director | Sale | 80,193 @ $77.56 | $6.2M | −14.5% of holding | −18.5% | −58.9% | 474,749 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Hulls Chris | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $78.38 | $392K | −1.1% of holding | −18.5% | −58.9% | 469,749 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Antonoff Lauren | director | Sale | 4,546 @ $76.10 | $346K | −1.4% of holding | −19.4% | −61.0% | 324,827 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Prober Charles J. | director | Sale | 7,930 @ $76.93 | $610K | −7.0% of holding | −12.9% | −56.6% | 105,456 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | COGHLAN JOHN PHILIP | director | Sale | 2,866 @ $98.88 | $283K | −15.6% of holding | −24.5% | −64.3% | 15,494 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | COGHLAN JOHN PHILIP | director | Sale | 259 @ $99.47 | $26K | −1.7% of holding | −24.5% | −64.3% | 15,235 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
163 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Prober Charles J. | director | Option exercise | 7,930 | 117,860 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Prober Charles J. | director | Option exercise | 7,930 | 15,860 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Hulls Chris | director | Withheld for tax | 7,545 | 374,511 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Antonoff Lauren | director | Withheld for tax | 6,291 | 282,360 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Burke Russell John | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,314 | 100,977 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Synge James | director | Option exercise | 21,769 | 224,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Synge James | director | Option exercise | 12,203 | 203,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Synge James | director | Option exercise | 12,203 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Synge James | director | Option exercise | 21,769 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Hulls Chris | director | Option exercise | 114,509 | 632,056 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Hulls Chris | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 469,554 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Hulls Chris | director | Option exercise | 47,993 | 517,547 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Hulls Chris | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 180,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Hulls Chris | director | Option exercise | 47,993 | 1,167,393 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Hulls Chris | director | Option exercise | 114,509 | 11,292 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Prober Charles J. | director | Option exercise | 7,930 | 117,860 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Prober Charles J. | director | Option exercise | 7,930 | 23,790 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Morin Brit | director | Option exercise | 8,021 | 28,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Morin Brit | director | Option exercise | 1,744 | 29,922 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Morin Brit | director | Option exercise | 1,744 | 6,103 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Morin Brit | director | Option exercise | 8,021 | 68,173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Hulls Chris | director | Option exercise | 27,000 | 446,554 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Morin Brit | director | Option exercise | 4,011 | 29,986 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Morin Brit | director | Option exercise | 872 | 30,858 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Morin Brit | director | Option exercise | 872 | 7,847 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Morin Brit | director | Option exercise | 4,011 | 76,194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Hulls Chris | director | Option exercise | 27,000 | 1,215,386 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Prober Charles J. | director | Award / grant | 19 | 109,930 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Hulls Chris | director | Option exercise | 27,000 | 433,899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Hulls Chris | director | Option exercise | 27,000 | 1,242,386 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Prober Charles J. | director | Option exercise | 7,930 | 117,841 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Prober Charles J. | director | Option exercise | 7,930 | 31,720 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Hulls Chris | director | Option exercise | 27,000 | 422,941 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Hulls Chris | director | Option exercise | 27,000 | 125,801 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Prober Charles J. | director | Option exercise | 7,930 | 117,841 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Prober Charles J. | director | Option exercise | 7,930 | 39,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Burke Russell John | officer | Other acquisition | 45,000 | 68,361 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Antonoff Lauren | director | Withheld for tax | 21,130 | 288,651 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Hulls Chris | director | Withheld for tax | 7,544 | 395,941 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Burke Russell John | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,087 | 115,974 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.