Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.22 · now $10.22 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LIEN has typically landed between $9.18 and $11.53 — a range of −10.2% to +12.8% from the issuance price $10.22.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,136 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-02-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.22) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where LIEN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.22 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.22 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.16 (-0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.74–$10.58
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.18–$11.53
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-07 | −35.9% | −35.9% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-01 | −33.5% | −33.5% | +1.5% |
| 2022-03-31 | −32.8% | −32.8% | +1.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-01-26 | +33.6% | −0.2% | +33.6% |
| 2024-01-25 | +33.0% | −0.2% | +33.0% |
| 2024-01-30 | +32.1% | +0.0% | +33.8% |
1,136 overlapping windows · 2022-02-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Colonna Bernardino | officer | Purchase | 750 @ $10.25 | $8K | +17.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,030 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Gordon Scott | director | Purchase | 134 @ $10.22 | $1K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 96,190 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Colonna Bernardino | officer | Purchase | 250 @ $10.18 | $3K | +6.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,280 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Gordon Scott | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $10.19 | $51K | +5.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 96,056 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-27 | Colonna Bernardino | officer | Purchase | 600 @ $10.18 | $6K | +17.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,030 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-26 | Gordon Scott | director | Purchase | 2,483 @ $10.15 | $25K | +2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 91,056 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Colonna Bernardino | officer | Purchase | 600 @ $10.16 | $6K | +21.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,430 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Colonna Bernardino | officer | Purchase | 400 @ $10.18 | $4K | +16.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,830 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Gordon Scott | director | Purchase | 250 @ $10.12 | $3K | +0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 88,573 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Gordon Scott | director | Purchase | 1,520 @ $10.11 | $15K | +1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 88,323 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-21 | Gordon Scott | director | Purchase | 195 @ $9.95 | $2K | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 86,803 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Gordon Scott | director | Purchase | 7,500 @ $9.70 | $73K | +9.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 86,608 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Gordon Scott | director | Purchase | 8,200 @ $9.57 | $78K | +11.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 79,108 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | Gordon Scott | director | Purchase | 17,584 @ $9.54 | $168K | +33.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 70,908 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Mazarakis John | director | Purchase | 60,000 @ $9.44 | $566K | ownership Δ n/a | +10.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 60,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Gordon Scott | director | Purchase | 18,300 @ $9.54 | $175K | +52.2% of holding | +10.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,324 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Mahajan Umesh | officer | Purchase | 4,000 @ $9.60 | $38K | +133.5% of holding | +10.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,997 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Fazio Gianni James Lezziere | officer | Purchase | 200 @ $9.55 | $2K | ownership Δ n/a | +10.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 200 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | Sack Peter | director | Purchase | 450 @ $11.23 | $5K | +8.2% of holding | −4.8% | −4.1% | 5,918 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-17 | Sack Peter | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $10.47 | $10K | +22.4% of holding | +2.7% | +0.2% | 5,468 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-06 | Mahajan Umesh | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $10.30 | $10K | +58.4% of holding | +0.8% | −5.2% | 2,712 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Mahajan Umesh | officer | Purchase | 900 @ $10.25 | $9K | +150.0% of holding | +5.2% | −5.4% | 1,500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Mahajan Umesh | officer | Purchase | 212 @ $10.17 | $2K | +14.1% of holding | +5.2% | −5.4% | 1,712 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-29 | Colonna Bernardino | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $10.21 | $10K | +69.9% of holding | −0.4% | −2.2% | 2,430 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-28 | Sack Peter | director | Purchase | 500 @ $10.29 | $5K | +12.6% of holding | −2.0% | −1.0% | 4,468 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Sack Peter | director | Purchase | 500 @ $10.42 | $5K | +14.4% of holding | −2.2% | −5.9% | 3,968 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-17 | Sack Peter | director | Purchase | 50 @ $10.50 | $525 | +1.5% of holding | −15.6% | −25.3% | 3,468 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-10 | Mahajan Umesh | officer | Purchase | 500 @ $10.73 | $5K | ownership Δ n/a | −18.6% | −24.2% | 500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-10 | Sack Peter | director | Purchase | 100 @ $10.82 | $1K | +3.0% of holding | −18.6% | −24.2% | 3,418 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-10 | Mahajan Umesh | officer | Purchase | 100 @ $10.78 | $1K | +20.0% of holding | −18.6% | −24.2% | 600 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-08 | Sack Peter | director | Purchase | 100 @ $10.98 | $1K | +100.0% of holding | −21.8% | −33.5% | 200 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-04 | Sack Peter | director | Purchase | 100 @ $10.70 | $1K | ownership Δ n/a | −14.3% | −30.8% | 100 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
7 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-19 | Gordon Scott | director | Other acquisition | 214,286 | 3,601,490 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-19 | Chicago Atlantic BDC Advisers, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 214,286 | 3,601,490 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-19 | Chicago Atlantic BDC Advisers, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 714,286 | 2,887,204 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-19 | Gordon Scott | director | Other acquisition | 714,286 | 2,887,204 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-09 | Sack Peter | director | Other acquisition | 3,118 | 3,318 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-19 | Gordon Scott | director | Other acquisition | 684,611 | 3,815,776 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-19 | Chicago Atlantic BDC Advisers, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 684,611 | 3,815,776 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.