Issued 2026-09-25 at $237.69 · now $237.69 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, LHX has typically landed between $215.19 and $263.94 — a range of −9.5% to +11.0% from the issuance price $237.69.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($237.69) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where LHX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $237.69 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $237.69 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $238.81 (+0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $228.59–$249.03
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $215.19–$263.94
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −34.5% | −34.5% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −34.2% | −34.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-13 | −32.6% | −32.6% | +0.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-16 | +28.1% | −1.3% | +29.4% |
| 2020-03-23 | +27.7% | +0.0% | +35.5% |
| 2008-04-17 | +27.4% | +0.0% | +27.4% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$290.02
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$282.31
- Analyst target · range $207.00–$367.00$250.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$237.69
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | Rakita Melanie | officer | Sale | 2,180 @ $310.45 | $677K | −34.2% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,192 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | MEHTA SAMIR | officer | Sale | 5,528 @ $370.32 | $2.0M | −41.6% of holding | −3.5% | −41.8% | 7,756 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | RAMBEAU JON | officer | Sale | 5,528 @ $370.32 | $2.0M | −41.9% of holding | −3.5% | −41.8% | 7,660 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | Rakita Melanie | officer | Sale | 751 @ $370.32 | $278K | −15.4% of holding | −3.5% | −41.8% | 4,131 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-26 | Rakita Melanie | officer | Sale | 2,378 @ $341.45 | $812K | −32.8% of holding | +4.7% | −38.1% | 4,882 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | MEHTA SAMIR | officer | Sale | 4,840 @ $338.85 | $1.6M | −45.0% of holding | +8.8% | −30.3% | 5,916 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | KUBASIK CHRISTOPHER E | director | Sale | 14,171 @ $301.05 | $4.3M | −8.9% of holding | −0.8% | −1.8% | 144,426 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | KUBASIK CHRISTOPHER E | director | Sale | 83,000 @ $279.90 | $23.2M | −36.3% of holding | +4.0% | +29.8% | 145,578 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-11 | KUBASIK CHRISTOPHER E | director | Sale | 40,138 @ $269.52 | $10.8M | −21.6% of holding | −0.1% | +19.3% | 145,578 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | KUBASIK CHRISTOPHER E | director | Sale | 72,000 @ $271.14 | $19.5M | −33.1% of holding | −0.2% | +23.4% | 145,578 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-12 | KUBASIK CHRISTOPHER E | director | Sale | 33,061 @ $248.48 | $8.2M | −18.5% of holding | +1.0% | +2.0% | 145,572 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | KUBASIK CHRISTOPHER E | director | Sale | 2,212 @ $247.01 | $546K | −1.5% of holding | +2.1% | +1.9% | 145,572 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | ZOISS EDWARD J | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $245.00 | $490K | −7.3% of holding | −3.8% | −1.2% | 25,325 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | RAMBEAU JON | officer | Sale | 3,178 @ $226.00 | $718K | −53.2% of holding | +3.3% | +8.7% | 2,797 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-07 | ZOISS EDWARD J | officer | Sale | 3,361 @ $211.79 | $712K | −11.0% of holding | +3.6% | +13.0% | 27,259 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | ZOISS EDWARD J | officer | Sale | 1,783 @ $211.48 | $377K | −5.5% of holding | +6.5% | +15.6% | 30,620 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-30 | NIEBERGALL ROSS | director | Sale | 1,373 @ $210.06 | $288K | −21.4% of holding | −0.8% | +16.7% | 5,049 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-23 | NIEBERGALL ROSS | director | Sale | 1,764 @ $213.65 | $377K | −20.6% of holding | +3.6% | +13.1% | 6,812 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | NIEBERGALL ROSS | director | Sale | 1,764 @ $223.62 | $394K | −17.1% of holding | −0.6% | +14.8% | 8,576 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-08 | NIEBERGALL ROSS | director | Sale | 2,150 @ $260.00 | $559K | −17.2% of holding | −11.8% | −13.7% | 10,340 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-11-06 | NIEBERGALL ROSS | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $260.00 | $286K | −9.6% of holding | −10.9% | −13.0% | 10,340 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-04 | NIEBERGALL ROSS | director | Sale | 2,988 @ $247.93 | $741K | −22.4% of holding | −8.8% | −10.5% | 10,340 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-10-31 | KUBASIK CHRISTOPHER E | director | Sale | 21,351 @ $248.11 | $5.3M | −14.1% of holding | −7.6% | −10.6% | 130,506 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-02 | NIEBERGALL ROSS | director | Sale | 2,988 @ $244.68 | $731K | −18.3% of holding | +1.2% | −6.0% | 13,328 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-09-03 | NIEBERGALL ROSS | director | Sale | 2,988 @ $236.68 | $707K | −15.5% of holding | +1.2% | −12.7% | 16,316 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-15 | MIKUEN SCOTT T | officer | Sale | 15,887 @ $235.00 | $3.7M | −25.0% of holding | +0.6% | −11.8% | 47,616 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-07-11 | MIKUEN SCOTT T | officer | Sale | 10,527 @ $230.00 | $2.4M | −18.1% of holding | +3.3% | −13.7% | 47,616 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-17 | Stackley Sean J | officer | Sale | 3,354 @ $216.73 | $727K | −19.1% of holding | +6.4% | −10.0% | 14,186 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-06-14 | Stackley Sean J | officer | Sale | 3,354 @ $218.00 | $731K | −16.1% of holding | +6.6% | −8.4% | 17,540 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-04 | KUBASIK CHRISTOPHER E | director | Sale | 26,190 @ $225.70 | $5.9M | −17.9% of holding | −6.5% | −8.2% | 120,326 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-05-31 | KUBASIK CHRISTOPHER E | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $222.45 | $5.6M | −17.2% of holding | −4.5% | −3.8% | 120,326 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-05-22 | KUBASIK CHRISTOPHER E | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $225.11 | $5.6M | −17.2% of holding | −2.2% | −2.1% | 120,326 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-26 | KUBASIK CHRISTOPHER E | director | Sale | 6,258 @ $211.91 | $1.3M | −5.1% of holding | +1.2% | +1.1% | 116,175 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-03-25 | KUBASIK CHRISTOPHER E | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $212.22 | $8.5M | −25.6% of holding | +0.9% | +1.4% | 116,175 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-18 | MIKUEN SCOTT T | officer | Sale | 3,363 @ $212.86 | $716K | −5.7% of holding | −2.1% | −0.1% | 55,254 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-03-15 | MIKUEN SCOTT T | officer | Sale | 1,292 @ $211.14 | $273K | −2.2% of holding | −4.6% | −0.8% | 58,617 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-15 | SWANSON WILLIAM H | director | Purchase | 1,250 @ $213.39 | $267K | +81.0% of holding | −4.6% | −0.8% | 2,793 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-14 | SWANSON WILLIAM H | director | Purchase | 1,250 @ $215.35 | $269K | +426.6% of holding | −3.0% | −1.0% | 1,543 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-28 | ZOISS EDWARD J | officer | Sale | 1,459 @ $211.57 | $309K | −5.1% of holding | −3.1% | −1.0% | 27,185 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-02-27 | ZOISS EDWARD J | officer | Sale | 3,707 @ $211.47 | $784K | −11.5% of holding | −2.6% | −1.7% | 28,644 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
260 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Aebli Christopher T. | officer | Award / grant | 5,692 | 5,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | MEHTA SAMIR | officer | Award / grant | 11,831 | 11,831 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | MEHTA SAMIR | officer | Award / grant | 3,036 | 3,036 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Barnes Lauren N. | officer | Award / grant | 5,692 | 5,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | SHARP KENNETH P | officer | Award / grant | 8,998 | 8,998 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Hanna Tania W. | officer | Award / grant | 8,998 | 8,998 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Rakita Melanie | officer | Award / grant | 5,399 | 5,399 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | MEHTA SAMIR | officer | Award / grant | 17,995 | 17,995 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Bedingfield Kenneth L | officer | Award / grant | 17,995 | 17,995 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Geraghty Joanna | director | Award / grant | 150 | 5,708 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Zamarro Christina L | director | Award / grant | 128 | 6,267 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Regnery David S | director | Award / grant | 128 | 2,816 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bedingfield Kenneth L | officer | Award / grant | 19 | 352 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | HACHIGIAN KIRK S | director | Award / grant | 661 | 4,806 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | HAY LEWIS III | director | Award / grant | 661 | 7,419 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Harris Harry B. Jr | director | Award / grant | 661 | 4,412 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | FRADIN ROGER | director | Award / grant | 661 | 6,890 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Zamarro Christina L | director | Award / grant | 661 | 6,115 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Regnery David S | director | Award / grant | 661 | 2,673 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Rice Edward A Jr | director | Award / grant | 661 | 3,517 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Geraghty Joanna | director | Award / grant | 661 | 5,541 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | DATTILO THOMAS A | director | Award / grant | 661 | 9,265 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | BAILEY SALLIE B | director | Award / grant | 661 | 7,357 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Rakita Melanie | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,416 | 6,372 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | SHARP KENNETH P | officer | Award / grant | 2,593 | 2,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Rakita Melanie | officer | Option exercise | 3,596 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | SHARP KENNETH P | officer | Award / grant | 10,021 | 10,021 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | SHARP KENNETH P | officer | Award / grant | 11,169 | 11,169 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | MEHTA SAMIR | officer | Award / grant | 3,192 | 3,192 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Rakita Melanie | officer | Option exercise | 3,596 | 7,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Geraghty Joanna | director | Award / grant | 124 | 4,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Zamarro Christina L | director | Award / grant | 106 | 5,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Regnery David S | director | Award / grant | 106 | 2,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Bedingfield Kenneth L | officer | Award / grant | 98 | 332 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | KUBASIK CHRISTOPHER E | director | Withheld for tax | 18,985 | 191,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | MEHTA SAMIR | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,587 | 13,284 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | RAMBEAU JON | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,587 | 13,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Rakita Melanie | officer | Withheld for tax | 269 | 7,260 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | FEDDERSEN CHRISTOPH THEODOR | officer | Award / grant | 1,690 | 1,690 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Rakita Melanie | officer | Award / grant | 4,345 | 4,345 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Richard Dean Dr Mccormick | House | purchase | 2026-07-09 | 2026-06-12 | $1–15K |
| Richard Dean Dr Mccormick | House | purchase | 2026-07-09 | 2026-06-12 | $1–15K |
| Tim Walberg | House | purchase | 2026-06-03 | 2025-02-07 | $15–50K |
| Richard Dean Dr Mccormick | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-19 | $1–15K |
| Richard Dean Dr Mccormick | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-19 | $1–15K |
| Richard Dean Dr Mccormick | House | purchase | 2025-12-09 | 2025-11-05 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-23 | $1–15K |
| Richard Dean Dr Mccormick | House | sale | 2025-10-09 | 2025-09-18 | $1–15K |
| Richard Dean Dr Mccormick | House | purchase | 2025-09-17 | 2023-03-15 | $1–15K |
| Ritchie John Torres | House | purchase | 2025-08-20 | 2024-09-26 | $1–15K |
| Ritchie John Torres | House | sale | 2025-08-20 | 2025-07-11 | $1–15K |
| Markwayne Mullin | Senate | purchase | 2025-06-11 | 2025-05-13 | $15–50K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-06-06 | 2025-05-30 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.