Issued 2026-09-16 at $275.20 · now $275.20 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LGND has typically landed between $234.49 and $336.97 — a range of −14.8% to +22.4% from the issuance price $275.20.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($275.20) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where LGND has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $275.2 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $275.2 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $279.51 (+1.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $258.95–$300.08
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $234.49–$336.97
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −53.9% | −53.9% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-29 | −50.0% | −51.3% | +1.8% |
| 2008-09-16 | −46.7% | −48.1% | +2.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-19 | +108.0% | +0.0% | +108.0% |
| 2021-01-08 | +103.0% | +0.0% | +103.0% |
| 2021-01-06 | +97.5% | +0.0% | +97.5% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
55%
+2.7%
n=20
Feb
55%
+1.5%
n=20
Mar
65%
+4.2%
n=20
Apr
65%
+1.7%
n=20
May
35%
−1.2%
n=20
Jun
70%
+7.3%
n=20
Jul
60%
+4.1%
n=20
Aug
50%
+0.3%
n=20
Sep
30%
−2.8%
n=20
Oct
65%
−2.0%
n=20
Nov
60%
+5.1%
n=20
Dec
50%
+1.9%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Zimmermann Martine | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $285.00 | $342K | −23.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,897 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 2,115 @ $286.36 | $606K | −5.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 37,299 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,800 @ $285.17 | $513K | −4.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 39,414 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 400 @ $288.98 | $116K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 36,514 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 385 @ $287.53 | $111K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 36,914 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 300 @ $283.99 | $85K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 41,214 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Espinoza Octavio | officer | Sale | 31,641 @ $292.06 | $9.2M | −53.3% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,696 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Haas Jason | director | Sale | 7,138 @ $292.81 | $2.1M | −64.2% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,981 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,214 @ $287.77 | $349K | −2.7% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,973 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,032 @ $286.80 | $296K | −2.2% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,187 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 991 @ $291.71 | $289K | −2.3% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,923 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 503 @ $289.80 | $146K | −1.2% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,114 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 409 @ $292.82 | $120K | −1.0% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,514 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 356 @ $288.75 | $103K | −0.8% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,617 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 200 @ $290.60 | $58K | −0.5% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,914 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 157 @ $285.74 | $45K | −0.3% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,219 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 105 @ $284.14 | $30K | −0.2% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,409 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 33 @ $284.55 | $9K | −0.1% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,376 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,119 @ $311.72 | $349K | −2.4% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,895 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,081 @ $312.28 | $338K | −2.4% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,814 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 900 @ $315.78 | $284K | −2.1% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,114 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 700 @ $313.46 | $219K | −1.6% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,114 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 600 @ $317.15 | $190K | −1.4% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,514 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 396 @ $308.99 | $122K | −0.9% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,118 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 104 @ $310.20 | $32K | −0.2% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,014 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 100 @ $314.58 | $31K | −0.2% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,014 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Sabba Stephen L | director | Sale | 2,145 @ $254.00 | $545K | −6.0% of holding | +19.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,629 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Haas Jason | director | Sale | 3,461 @ $256.08 | $886K | −41.0% of holding | +13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,981 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Haas Jason | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $255.01 | $765K | −26.2% of holding | +13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,442 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Aryeh Jason | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $250.00 | $1.1M | −4.2% of holding | +16.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 102,580 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | LAMATTINA JOHN L | director | Sale | 3,405 @ $251.62 | $857K | −11.2% of holding | +21.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,969 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | LAMATTINA JOHN L | director | Sale | 697 @ $249.53 | $174K | −2.2% of holding | +21.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,374 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Aryeh Jason | director | Sale | 500 @ $250.00 | $125K | −0.5% of holding | +21.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 107,080 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | LAMATTINA JOHN L | director | Sale | 257 @ $247.22 | $64K | −0.8% of holding | +21.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,303 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | LAMATTINA JOHN L | director | Sale | 232 @ $248.11 | $58K | −0.7% of holding | +21.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,071 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,432 @ $225.97 | $324K | −3.2% of holding | +37.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,782 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,216 @ $229.47 | $279K | −2.8% of holding | +37.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,582 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 677 @ $225.20 | $152K | −1.5% of holding | +37.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,214 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 584 @ $228.57 | $133K | −1.3% of holding | +37.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,798 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 491 @ $223.95 | $110K | −1.1% of holding | +37.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,891 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 400 @ $226.78 | $91K | −0.9% of holding | +37.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,382 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 200 @ $230.41 | $46K | −0.5% of holding | +37.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,382 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | KOZARICH JOHN W | director | Sale | 1,575 @ $223.50 | $352K | −3.6% of holding | +15.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,786 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | KOZARICH JOHN W | director | Sale | 459 @ $224.00 | $103K | −1.1% of holding | +14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,786 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,420 @ $232.92 | $331K | −3.3% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,182 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 932 @ $228.75 | $213K | −2.0% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,850 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 800 @ $234.02 | $187K | −1.9% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,382 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 780 @ $232.04 | $181K | −1.8% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,602 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 600 @ $227.45 | $136K | −1.3% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,782 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 370 @ $230.87 | $85K | −0.8% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,382 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | KOZARICH JOHN W | director | Sale | 165 @ $231.87 | $38K | −0.4% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,007 | Form 4 · filed 13 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | KOZARICH JOHN W | director | Sale | 116 @ $234.09 | $27K | −0.3% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,786 | Form 4 · filed 13 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | KOZARICH JOHN W | director | Sale | 105 @ $232.57 | $24K | −0.2% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,902 | Form 4 · filed 13 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 98 @ $229.71 | $23K | −0.2% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,752 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | KOZARICH JOHN W | director | Sale | 80 @ $227.37 | $18K | −0.2% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,173 | Form 4 · filed 13 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | KOZARICH JOHN W | director | Sale | 1 @ $229.87 | $230 | −0.0% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,172 | Form 4 · filed 13 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,302 @ $199.72 | $260K | −2.8% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,620 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,238 @ $200.94 | $249K | −2.8% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,382 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 963 @ $203.22 | $196K | −2.3% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,719 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Sale | 700 @ $201.90 | $141K | −1.6% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,682 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
154 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Espinoza Octavio | officer | Option exercise | 16,179 | 43,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Espinoza Octavio | officer | Option exercise | 7,171 | 55,989 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Haas Jason | director | Option exercise | 6,138 | 11,119 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Espinoza Octavio | officer | Option exercise | 3,348 | 59,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Espinoza Octavio | officer | Option exercise | 2,869 | 48,818 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Espinoza Octavio | officer | Option exercise | 2,074 | 45,949 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Espinoza Octavio | officer | Option exercise | 2,869 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Espinoza Octavio | officer | Option exercise | 3,348 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Espinoza Octavio | officer | Option exercise | 2,074 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Haas Jason | director | Option exercise | 6,138 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Espinoza Octavio | officer | Option exercise | 7,171 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Espinoza Octavio | officer | Option exercise | 16,179 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 46,514 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 29,444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 46,514 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 34,444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Davis Todd C | director | Other acquisition | 132 | 199,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Reardon Andrew | officer | Other acquisition | 132 | 41,514 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Espinoza Octavio | officer | Other acquisition | 17 | 27,696 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Sabba Stephen L | director | Option exercise | 2,145 | 35,774 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Sabba Stephen L | director | Option exercise | 2,145 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Haas Jason | director | Option exercise | 3,000 | 10,442 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Haas Jason | director | Option exercise | 1,000 | 11,442 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Haas Jason | director | Option exercise | 1,000 | 6,138 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Haas Jason | director | Option exercise | 3,000 | 7,138 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Zimmermann Martine | director | Withheld for tax | 182 | 5,097 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Zimmermann Martine | director | Award / grant | 836 | 5,279 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Zimmermann Martine | director | Award / grant | 2,938 | 2,938 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | LAMATTINA JOHN L | director | Award / grant | 836 | 31,560 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Aryeh Jason | director | Award / grant | 2,938 | 2,938 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Gray Nancy Ryan | director | Award / grant | 836 | 8,930 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Gray Nancy Ryan | director | Award / grant | 2,938 | 2,938 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Haas Jason | director | Award / grant | 836 | 7,442 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Haas Jason | director | Award / grant | 2,938 | 2,938 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | KOZARICH JOHN W | director | Award / grant | 836 | 42,622 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | KOZARICH JOHN W | director | Award / grant | 2,938 | 2,938 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Aryeh Jason | director | Award / grant | 836 | 107,580 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | LAMATTINA JOHN L | director | Award / grant | 2,938 | 2,938 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Sabba Stephen L | director | Award / grant | 836 | 33,629 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Sabba Stephen L | director | Award / grant | 2,938 | 2,938 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.