Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.79 · now $12.79 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LFST has typically landed between $9.74 and $16.67 — a range of −23.8% to +30.4% from the issuance price $12.79.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,302 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-06-10 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.79) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where LFST has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.79 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $12.79 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.9 (+0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $11.51–$14.29
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.74–$16.67
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,302 windows spanning 2021-06-10 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-07-14 | −55.5% | −55.5% | +0.0% |
| 2021-07-15 | −48.2% | −54.9% | +0.2% |
| 2021-07-16 | −46.9% | −55.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-03-06 | +65.8% | +0.0% | +65.8% |
| 2023-03-07 | +64.6% | +0.0% | +64.6% |
| 2023-03-02 | +52.9% | −3.7% | +52.9% |
1,302 overlapping windows · 2021-06-10 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
60%
−5.6%
n=5
Feb
60%
+12.1%
n=5
Mar
40%
−0.1%
n=5
Apr
60%
−1.1%
n=5
May
60%
−1.4%
n=5
Jun
40%
+0.0%
n=5
Jul
50%
−3.0%
n=6
Aug
67%
+4.3%
n=6
Sep
67%
+0.2%
n=6
Oct
20%
−6.7%
n=5
Nov
60%
−0.7%
n=5
Dec
60%
+7.4%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | TPG GP A, LLC | other | Sale | 18,409,705 @ $12.29 | $226.3M | −18.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 79,691,702 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Paunovich Vukasin | officer | Sale | 42,067 @ $12.87 | $541K | −17.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 205,379 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | DeLuca Teresa | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $12.68 | $95K | −7.2% of holding | +7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 97,093 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | DeLuca Teresa | director | Sale | 20,441 @ $12.23 | $250K | −16.3% of holding | +11.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 104,593 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Burdick Kenneth A | director | Sale | 500,000 @ $11.51 | $5.8M | −14.4% of holding | +14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,970,810 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | TPG GP A, LLC | other | Sale | 13,643,207 @ $10.62 | $144.9M | −12.2% of holding | +7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 98,101,407 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Miller Lisa K | officer | Sale | 47,912 @ $10.85 | $520K | −14.6% of holding | +7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 281,289 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Paunovich Vukasin | officer | Sale | 44,394 @ $10.85 | $482K | −15.2% of holding | +7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 247,446 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Bessler Robert | director | Sale | 447,169 @ $10.13 | $4.5M | −40.5% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 656,560 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Bessler Robert | director | Sale | 447,168 @ $10.13 | $4.5M | −45.3% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 539,763 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | TPG GP A, LLC | other | Sale | 28,281,943 @ $8.02 | $226.8M | −20.2% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 111,744,614 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | BLACK DARREN M. | director | Sale | 5,899,661 @ $8.02 | $47.3M | −20.2% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,310,115 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Bessler Robert | director | Sale | 287,517 @ $8.02 | $2.3M | −20.7% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,103,729 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Bessler Robert | director | Sale | 287,517 @ $8.02 | $2.3M | −22.6% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 986,931 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Shuey Eric | director | Sale | 243,362 @ $8.02 | $2.0M | −21.9% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 867,562 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Bessler Robert | director | Sale | 37,500 @ $8.55 | $321K | −2.9% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,236,948 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Bessler Robert | director | Sale | 37,500 @ $8.55 | $321K | −2.7% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,353,746 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Bessler Robert | director | Sale | 31,074 @ $7.05 | $219K | −2.2% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,391,246 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Bessler Robert | director | Sale | 31,073 @ $7.05 | $219K | −2.4% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,274,448 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Bessler Robert | director | Sale | 3,876 @ $7.00 | $27K | −0.3% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,305,521 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Bessler Robert | director | Sale | 3,876 @ $7.00 | $27K | −0.3% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,422,320 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | Bessler Robert | director | Sale | 2,551 @ $7.01 | $18K | −0.2% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,309,397 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | Bessler Robert | director | Sale | 2,550 @ $7.01 | $18K | −0.2% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,426,196 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | TPG GP A, LLC | other | Sale | 20,685,061 @ $7.01 | $145.0M | −12.9% of holding | −5.8% | +60.8% | 140,026,557 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | BLACK DARREN M. | director | Sale | 4,314,939 @ $7.01 | $30.2M | −12.9% of holding | −5.8% | +60.8% | 29,209,776 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Bessler Robert | director | Sale | 851 @ $7.04 | $6K | −0.1% of holding | +3.5% | +32.3% | 1,434,932 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Bessler Robert | director | Sale | 850 @ $7.04 | $6K | −0.1% of holding | +3.5% | +32.3% | 1,318,133 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Bessler Robert | director | Sale | 59,971 @ $7.04 | $422K | −4.3% of holding | +3.3% | +28.6% | 1,318,983 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Bessler Robert | director | Sale | 59,971 @ $7.04 | $422K | −4.0% of holding | +3.3% | +28.6% | 1,435,783 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Bessler Robert | director | Sale | 3,221 @ $7.00 | $23K | −0.2% of holding | +2.3% | +26.7% | 1,495,754 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Bessler Robert | director | Sale | 3,221 @ $7.00 | $23K | −0.2% of holding | +2.3% | +26.7% | 1,378,954 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Varanakis Ann | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $6.90 | $345K | −13.7% of holding | +2.7% | +21.5% | 315,610 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Bessler Robert | director | Sale | 6,186 @ $7.00 | $43K | −0.4% of holding | +5.5% | +15.0% | 1,375,989 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Bessler Robert | director | Sale | 6,185 @ $7.00 | $43K | −0.4% of holding | +5.5% | +15.0% | 1,492,790 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Bessler Robert | director | Sale | 39,815 @ $7.01 | $279K | −2.8% of holding | +3.4% | +14.1% | 1,382,175 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Bessler Robert | director | Sale | 39,815 @ $7.01 | $279K | −2.6% of holding | +3.4% | +14.1% | 1,498,975 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Miller Lisa K | officer | Sale | 57,240 @ $6.43 | $368K | −18.0% of holding | +4.9% | +3.6% | 261,292 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 8,407,643 @ $5.07 | $42.6M | −20.1% of holding | −7.3% | +24.5% | 33,524,715 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | BLACK DARREN M. | director | Sale | 8,407,643 @ $5.07 | $42.6M | −20.1% of holding | −7.3% | +24.5% | 33,524,715 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Silversmith Partners I GP, LLC | other | Sale | 3,592,357 @ $5.07 | $18.2M | −20.1% of holding | −7.3% | +24.5% | 14,324,197 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Burdick Kenneth A | director | Purchase | 18,660 @ $4.54 | $85K | +0.5% of holding | +10.6% | +42.6% | 3,436,571 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Burdick Kenneth A | director | Purchase | 1,340 @ $4.35 | $6K | +0.0% of holding | +10.6% | +42.6% | 3,417,991 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Burdick Kenneth A | director | Purchase | 46,511 @ $4.30 | $200K | ownership Δ n/a | +23.6% | +46.3% | 46,511 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Burdick Kenneth A | director | Purchase | 45,870 @ $4.36 | $200K | +1.4% of holding | +23.6% | +46.3% | 3,414,771 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Burdick Kenneth A | director | Purchase | 1,800 @ $4.31 | $8K | +0.1% of holding | +23.6% | +46.3% | 3,416,571 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Ramtekkar Ujjwal | officer | Sale | 9,519 @ $5.17 | $49K | −8.4% of holding | −19.0% | +20.3% | 103,916 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Ramtekkar Ujjwal | officer | Sale | 16,000 @ $5.94 | $95K | −12.4% of holding | −25.1% | −7.1% | 113,435 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-09 | Bessler Robert | director | Sale | 2,450 @ $7.01 | $17K | −0.2% of holding | −19.9% | −45.5% | 1,538,790 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-09 | Bessler Robert | director | Sale | 2,450 @ $7.01 | $17K | −0.2% of holding | −19.9% | −45.5% | 1,421,990 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-08 | Bessler Robert | director | Sale | 7 @ $7.00 | $49 | −0.0% of holding | −24.8% | −50.0% | 1,541,240 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-08 | Bessler Robert | director | Sale | 7 @ $7.00 | $49 | −0.0% of holding | −24.8% | −50.0% | 1,424,440 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Miller Lisa K | officer | Sale | 18,845 @ $6.90 | $130K | −5.3% of holding | +3.9% | −41.2% | 339,810 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Pantaleoni Pablo | officer | Sale | 15,605 @ $7.64 | $119K | −2.9% of holding | +3.0% | −39.5% | 522,580 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Pantaleoni Pablo | officer | Sale | 19,900 @ $7.29 | $145K | −3.6% of holding | −2.1% | −39.4% | 538,185 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
108 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Bourdon David | director | Other acquisition | 150,000 | 1,248,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Varanakis Ann | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,156 | 413,881 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Burdick Kenneth A | director | Award / grant | 45,495 | 3,470,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Palmer Eric P | director | Award / grant | 17,746 | 89,174 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Personette Sarah | director | Award / grant | 17,746 | 92,512 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Goltermann Lori | director | Award / grant | 35,492 | 35,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | DeLuca Teresa | director | Award / grant | 17,746 | 125,034 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Bessler Robert | director | Award / grant | 17,746 | 75,365 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Justice Thurman | director | Award / grant | 35,492 | 35,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Paunovich Vukasin | officer | Withheld for tax | 17,456 | 291,840 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Pardo Ryan | director | Withheld for tax | 9,376 | 1,093,366 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | McGroarty Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 24,255 | 772,235 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | McGroarty Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 47,594 | 796,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Burdick Kenneth A | director | Withheld for tax | 278,192 | 3,425,315 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Bourdon David | director | Withheld for tax | 86,024 | 1,398,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Bourdon David | director | Withheld for tax | 51,474 | 1,278,721 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | McGroarty Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 50,929 | 804,560 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Pardo Ryan | director | Withheld for tax | 38,479 | 1,102,742 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Burdick Kenneth A | director | Withheld for tax | 35,816 | 2,976,204 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | McGroarty Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 25,644 | 844,084 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Varanakis Ann | officer | Withheld for tax | 25,024 | 422,037 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Paunovich Vukasin | officer | Withheld for tax | 18,541 | 309,296 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Pardo Ryan | director | Withheld for tax | 15,841 | 1,035,510 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Miller Lisa K | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,766 | 315,811 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Miller Lisa K | officer | Withheld for tax | 13,446 | 329,201 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Burdick Kenneth A | director | Withheld for tax | 13,201 | 2,996,547 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Pardo Ryan | director | Withheld for tax | 12,280 | 1,011,097 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Varanakis Ann | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,232 | 387,272 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Bourdon David | director | Withheld for tax | 10,884 | 1,207,201 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Varanakis Ann | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,707 | 371,668 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | McGroarty Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 127,878 | 855,489 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Pardo Ryan | director | Award / grant | 105,711 | 1,141,221 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Burdick Kenneth A | director | Award / grant | 33,544 | 3,009,748 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Varanakis Ann | officer | Award / grant | 26,836 | 398,504 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Varanakis Ann | officer | Award / grant | 59,789 | 447,061 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Bourdon David | director | Award / grant | 122,994 | 1,330,195 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Pardo Ryan | director | Award / grant | 40,254 | 1,051,351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Paunovich Vukasin | officer | Award / grant | 62,935 | 327,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | McGroarty Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 65,168 | 869,728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Bourdon David | director | Award / grant | 205,550 | 1,484,271 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.