LECOLincoln Electric Holdings, Inc.Industrials · Manufacturing - Tools & Accessoriesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $255.30 · now $255.30 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LECO has typically landed between $227.55 and $289.47 — a range of −10.9% to +13.4% from the issuance price $255.30.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($255.30) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where LECO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $255.3 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$227.55worst · -10.9%$289.47best · +13.4%
  • now $255.3 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $259.51 (+1.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $244.53–$274.48
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $227.55–$289.47
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−46.0%−46.0%+0.0%
2008-09-25−44.8%−44.8%+0.0%
2008-09-24−42.2%−42.2%+0.4%
3 best
2009-03-31+40.5%+0.0%+40.5%
2009-03-30+36.7%+0.0%+36.7%
2009-07-09+35.2%+0.0%+35.2%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+1.2%
n=20
Feb
70%
+1.3%
n=20
Mar
45%
−0.3%
n=20
Apr
65%
+4.5%
n=20
May
55%
+0.0%
n=20
Jun
45%
−0.2%
n=20
Jul
65%
+3.6%
n=20
Aug
50%
+0.6%
n=20
Sep
30%
−2.1%
n=20
Oct
65%
+3.0%
n=20
Nov
70%
+4.8%
n=20
Dec
60%
+0.7%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$297$2192026-06-16: 1 insider sale, $232K — Whitehead Michael J2026-03-02: 3 insider sales, $5.0M — Bruno Gabriel …2026-02-17: 3 insider sales, $3.1M — Ansberry Jennifer I …2025-09-16: 1 insider sale, $233K — Whitehead Michael J2025-09-11: 3 insider sales, $3.0M — Hedlund Steven B …2025-08-12: 1 insider sale, $727K — Ansberry Jennifer I2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $2.8M2025-09: 4 open-market sales, $3.2M2026-02: 3 open-market sales, $3.1M2026-03: 3 open-market sales, $5.0M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $232K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Whitehead Michael J — Sale on 2026-06-16, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bruno Gabriel — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bruno Gabriel — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bruno Gabriel — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Ansberry Jennifer I — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ansberry Jennifer I — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ansberry Jennifer I — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Whitehead Michael J — Sale on 2025-09-16, filed same daydirector Hedlund Steven B — Sale on 2025-09-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hedlund Steven B — Sale on 2025-09-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hedlund Steven B — Sale on 2025-09-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ansberry Jennifer I — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-16Whitehead Michael JdirectorSale845 @ $274.81$232K−8.3% of holding−6.6%not yet — horizon still open9,319Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Bruno GabrielofficerSale11,868 @ $286.23$3.4M−26.3% of holding−8.0%−13.8%33,212Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Bruno GabrielofficerSale3,178 @ $287.14$913K−9.6% of holding−8.0%−13.8%30,034Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Bruno GabrielofficerSale2,427 @ $285.44$693K−5.1% of holding−8.0%−13.8%45,080Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-17Ansberry Jennifer IdirectorSale7,757 @ $288.65$2.2M−26.4% of holding−7.0%−14.2%21,608Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17Ansberry Jennifer IdirectorSale2,400 @ $289.18$694K−11.1% of holding−7.0%−14.2%19,208Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17Ansberry Jennifer IdirectorSale500 @ $290.38$145K−2.6% of holding−7.0%−14.2%18,708Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-16Whitehead Michael JdirectorSale1,000 @ $233.23$233K−9.8% of holding+1.2%+10.3%9,177Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-11Hedlund Steven BdirectorSale6,927 @ $243.49$1.7M−10.8% of holding−5.4%+5.8%57,066Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-11Hedlund Steven BdirectorSale4,260 @ $242.87$1.0M−6.2% of holding−5.4%+5.8%63,993Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-11Hedlund Steven BdirectorSale1,200 @ $244.36$293K−2.1% of holding−5.4%+5.8%55,866Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-12Ansberry Jennifer IdirectorSale3,000 @ $242.18$727K−13.5% of holding−2.0%+12.5%19,173Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-08Bruno GabrielofficerSale7,305 @ $242.42$1.8M−19.6% of holding−2.3%+15.5%29,927Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-04Benny Purushotam PateldirectorSale1,113 @ $244.00$272K−12.7% of holding−3.2%+2.1%7,622Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Ansberry Jennifer IdirectorSale11,124 @ $205.21$2.3M−33.4% of holding−0.0%+11.4%22,173Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Bruno GabrielofficerSale6,582 @ $203.53$1.3M−16.8% of holding−0.0%+11.4%32,551Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Bruno GabrielofficerSale100 @ $204.40$20K−0.3% of holding−0.0%+11.4%32,451Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19Hedlund Steven BdirectorSale9,400 @ $216.18$2.0M−14.4% of holding−2.4%+6.7%55,914Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19Hedlund Steven BdirectorSale7,092 @ $214.98$1.5M−9.8% of holding−2.4%+6.7%65,314Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19Hedlund Steven BdirectorSale3,308 @ $214.01$708K−4.4% of holding−2.4%+6.7%72,406Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19Hedlund Steven BdirectorSale1,254 @ $216.71$272K−2.2% of holding−2.4%+6.7%54,660Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-12Whitehead Michael JdirectorSale1,474 @ $207.34$306K−13.2% of holding−5.5%−2.3%9,704Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

128 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-21Hedlund Steven BdirectorWithheld for tax40963,483Form 4
2026-07-23Whaley Kevin J.officerWithheld for tax2162,640Form 4
2026-05-01Doria GregoryofficerWithheld for tax445,424Form 4
2026-04-17Falotico Nancy JoydirectorAward / grant6881,523Form 4
2026-04-17Fetch Bonnie JdirectorAward / grant6882,707Form 4
2026-04-17Goris Patrick P.directorAward / grant6889,176Form 4
2026-04-17Lincoln Kathryn JodirectorAward / grant68834,770Form 4
2026-04-17Chambers BriandirectorAward / grant6884,351Form 4
2026-04-17Benny Purushotam PateldirectorAward / grant6888,567Form 4
2026-04-17Hilton Michael FdirectorAward / grant68813,880Form 4
2026-04-17Howze Marc AdirectorAward / grant6882,550Form 4
2026-04-17ESPELAND CURTIS EdirectorAward / grant68819,110Form 4
2026-03-02Bruno GabrielofficerOption exercise17,47347,507Form 4
2026-03-02Ansberry Jennifer IdirectorWithheld for tax77020,266Form 4
2026-03-02Dietrich LisaofficerWithheld for tax1993,658Form 4
2026-03-02Whitehead Michael JdirectorWithheld for tax19910,164Form 4
2026-03-02Doria GregoryofficerWithheld for tax1465,468Form 4
2026-03-02Ansberry Jennifer IdirectorAward / grant1,71221,036Form 4
2026-03-02Hedlund Steven BdirectorAward / grant3,18263,892Form 4
2026-03-02Bruno GabrielofficerOption exercise17,4730Form 4
2026-03-02Bruno GabrielofficerAward / grant2,78429,920Form 4
2026-03-02Bruno GabrielofficerGift2,89827,136Form 4
2026-03-02Dietrich LisaofficerAward / grant6623,857Form 4
2026-03-02Doria GregoryofficerAward / grant4865,614Form 4
2026-03-02Whitehead Michael JdirectorAward / grant66210,363Form 4
2026-02-19Hedlund Steven BdirectorWithheld for tax49660,710Form 4
2026-02-19Bruno GabrielofficerWithheld for tax16130,034Form 4
2026-02-19Ansberry Jennifer IdirectorWithheld for tax15319,324Form 4
2026-02-19Edwards Susan CofficerWithheld for tax931,868Form 4
2026-02-19Whitehead Michael JdirectorWithheld for tax829,701Form 4
2026-02-19Dietrich LisaofficerWithheld for tax613,195Form 4
2026-02-19Doria GregoryofficerWithheld for tax255,128Form 4
2026-02-18Hedlund Steven BdirectorAward / grant21,37521,375Form 4
2026-02-18Dietrich LisaofficerAward / grant5133,256Form 4
2026-02-18Dietrich LisaofficerAward / grant2,0522,052Form 4
2026-02-18Doria GregoryofficerAward / grant6305,153Form 4
2026-02-18Doria GregoryofficerAward / grant2,5222,522Form 4
2026-02-18Edwards Susan CofficerAward / grant5981,961Form 4
2026-02-18Edwards Susan CofficerAward / grant2,3942,394Form 4
2026-02-18Hedlund Steven BdirectorAward / grant5,34061,206Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.