LEA · TickerCove

LEALear CorporationConsumer Cyclical · Auto - Partsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $123.19 · now $123.19 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LEA has typically landed between $107.52 and $140.68 — a range of −12.7% to +14.2% from the issuance price $123.19.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,217 overlapping 1 month windows · 2009-11-09 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($123.19) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$123.19 · 53% of range

$94.97 low$148.68 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.1%

typical move · IQR 11.4%

−12.7%worst (p90)+14.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where LEA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $123.19 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $123.19 (+0.0%)
typical $123.07 (-0.1%)
middle 50% $116.05–$130.1
90% range $107.52–$140.68

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,217 windows spanning 2009-11-09 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−42.9%	−42.9%	+1.2%
2020-02-20	−38.8%	−43.5%	+0.0%
2020-02-19	−38.6%	−43.5%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-05-06	+35.9%	+0.0%	+35.9%
2020-05-07	+35.8%	−0.3%	+35.8%
2018-12-24	+35.8%	+0.0%	+35.8%

4,217 overlapping windows · 2009-11-09 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

59%

+1.5%

n=17

Feb

53%

+2.3%

n=17

Mar

65%

−0.9%

n=17

Apr

65%

+0.2%

n=17

May

65%

+1.6%

n=17

Jun

41%

−0.9%

n=17

Jul

53%

+3.1%

n=17

Aug

35%

−1.2%

n=17

Sep

35%

−2.2%

n=17

Oct

75%

+5.2%

n=16

Nov

81%

+2.7%

n=16

Dec

59%

+2.6%

n=17

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-06	MALLETT CONRAD L JR	director	Sale	1,646 @ $121.35	$200K	−97.8% of holding	+12.9%	not yet — horizon still open	37	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24	SCOTT RAYMOND E	director	Sale	22,454 @ $135.40	$3.0M	−26.9% of holding	+5.1%	not yet — horizon still open	61,019	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24	SCOTT RAYMOND E	director	Sale	16,316 @ $134.44	$2.2M	−16.4% of holding	+5.1%	not yet — horizon still open	83,473	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24	SCOTT RAYMOND E	director	Sale	7,884 @ $136.41	$1.1M	−12.9% of holding	+5.1%	not yet — horizon still open	53,135	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24	SCOTT RAYMOND E	director	Sale	3,346 @ $137.21	$459K	−6.3% of holding	+5.1%	not yet — horizon still open	49,789	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-10	MALLETT CONRAD L JR	director	Sale	190 @ $141.34	$27K	−10.1% of holding	−7.2%	not yet — horizon still open	1,683	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-02	Orsini Frank C	officer	Sale	5,000 @ $148.50	$743K	−29.8% of holding	−9.0%	not yet — horizon still open	11,795	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-02	Cardew Jason M	director	Sale	2,500 @ $150.00	$375K	−15.9% of holding	−9.0%	not yet — horizon still open	13,241	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-02	Cardew Jason M	director	Sale	2,500 @ $145.00	$363K	−13.7% of holding	−9.0%	not yet — horizon still open	15,741	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01	Cardew Jason M	director	Sale	2,500 @ $141.14	$353K	−11.0% of holding	−7.5%	not yet — horizon still open	20,241	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-01	Cardew Jason M	director	Sale	2,000 @ $141.14	$282K	−9.9% of holding	−7.5%	not yet — horizon still open	18,241	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-22	Roelli Nicholas Jon	officer	Sale	2,336 @ $141.38	$330K	−50.0% of holding	−1.1%	not yet — horizon still open	2,339	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-13	MALLETT CONRAD L JR	director	Sale	44 @ $116.12	$5K	−29.3% of holding	+2.1%	−2.0%	106	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-26	Orsini Frank C	officer	Sale	7,133 @ $135.50	$967K	−29.8% of holding	−2.8%	−18.5%	16,795	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24	VIdershain Marianne	officer	Sale	1,590 @ $135.00	$215K	−46.1% of holding	−4.1%	−18.8%	1,862	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-19	Orsini Frank C	officer	Sale	8,354 @ $136.14	$1.1M	−25.9% of holding	−9.8%	−17.3%	23,928	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-19	Cardew Jason M	director	Sale	8,400 @ $134.37	$1.1M	−25.7% of holding	−9.8%	−17.3%	24,341	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-19	Kemp Harry Albert	officer	Sale	7,000 @ $136.31	$954K	−28.7% of holding	−9.8%	−17.3%	17,423	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-19	Davis Alicia J.	director	Sale	6,630 @ $132.98	$882K	−39.9% of holding	−9.8%	−17.3%	9,972	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-19	Cardew Jason M	director	Sale	1,000 @ $135.18	$135K	−4.1% of holding	−9.8%	−17.3%	23,341	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-19	Cardew Jason M	director	Sale	600 @ $135.28	$81K	−2.6% of holding	−9.8%	−17.3%	22,741	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-18	Cardew Jason M	director	Sale	5,000 @ $118.17	$591K	−24.7% of holding	+3.2%	+8.6%	15,244	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-26	Orsini Frank C	officer	Sale	8,500 @ $110.62	$940K	−36.5% of holding	−10.2%	+15.6%	14,785	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-29	SCOTT RAYMOND E	director	Sale	4,354 @ $96.58	$421K	−10.0% of holding	+12.1%	+15.1%	39,375	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-29	Cardew Jason M	director	Sale	3,171 @ $99.50	$316K	−12.6% of holding	+12.1%	+15.1%	22,073	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-29	Cardew Jason M	director	Sale	1,829 @ $96.69	$177K	−8.3% of holding	+12.1%	+15.1%	20,244	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-29	SCOTT RAYMOND E	director	Sale	504 @ $97.88	$49K	−1.3% of holding	+12.1%	+15.1%	38,871	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-29	SCOTT RAYMOND E	director	Sale	142 @ $98.84	$14K	−0.4% of holding	+12.1%	+15.1%	38,729	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-16	MALLETT CONRAD L JR	director	Sale	1,187 @ $92.86	$110K	−93.4% of holding	+9.8%	+13.6%	84	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-05	Lache Rod	director	Purchase	2,178 @ $91.80	$200K	ownership Δ n/a	−4.1%	+8.1%	2,178	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

230 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-01	LIGOCKI KATHLEEN	director	Option exercise	53	3,943	Form 4
2026-07-01	LIGOCKI KATHLEEN	director	Option exercise	53	18,410	Form 4
2026-05-14	Blissett Julian G.	director	Withheld for tax	637	1,670	Form 4
2026-05-14	Blissett Julian G.	director	Award / grant	1,330	1,330	Form 4
2026-05-14	LIGOCKI KATHLEEN	director	Award / grant	1,330	1,330	Form 4
2026-05-14	Lache Rod	director	Award / grant	1,330	1,330	Form 4
2026-05-14	LEWIS PATRICIA L	director	Option exercise	1,859	7,386	Form 4
2026-05-14	LEWIS PATRICIA L	director	Option exercise	1,859	0	Form 4
2026-05-14	LEWIS PATRICIA L	director	Award / grant	1,330	1,330	Form 4
2026-05-14	Jepsen Mary Lou	director	Option exercise	1,859	0	Form 4
2026-05-14	Jepsen Mary Lou	director	Award / grant	1,330	1,330	Form 4
2026-05-14	SMITH GREG C	director	Option exercise	3,134	5,389	Form 4
2026-05-14	SMITH GREG C	director	Option exercise	3,134	0	Form 4
2026-05-14	SMITH GREG C	director	Award / grant	2,194	2,194	Form 4
2026-05-14	Jepsen Mary Lou	director	Option exercise	1,859	12,971	Form 4
2026-05-14	Halverson Bradley M	director	Option exercise	1,859	8,171	Form 4
2026-05-14	Halverson Bradley M	director	Option exercise	1,859	0	Form 4
2026-05-14	Halverson Bradley M	director	Award / grant	1,330	1,330	Form 4
2026-05-14	FOSTER JONATHAN F	director	Option exercise	1,859	15,641	Form 4
2026-05-14	FOSTER JONATHAN F	director	Option exercise	1,859	0	Form 4
2026-05-14	FOSTER JONATHAN F	director	Award / grant	1,330	1,330	Form 4
2026-05-14	KRONE ROGER A	director	Option exercise	1,859	4,039	Form 4
2026-05-14	KRONE ROGER A	director	Option exercise	1,859	0	Form 4
2026-05-14	KRONE ROGER A	director	Award / grant	1,330	1,330	Form 4
2026-05-14	MALLETT CONRAD L JR	director	Option exercise	1,767	1,873	Form 4
2026-05-14	MALLETT CONRAD L JR	director	Option exercise	1,767	1,767	Form 4
2026-05-14	MALLETT CONRAD L JR	director	Award / grant	1,330	1,330	Form 4
2026-05-14	Blissett Julian G.	director	Option exercise	1,859	2,307	Form 4
2026-05-14	Blissett Julian G.	director	Option exercise	1,859	0	Form 4
2026-04-01	LIGOCKI KATHLEEN	director	Option exercise	53	3,890	Form 4
2026-04-01	LIGOCKI KATHLEEN	director	Option exercise	53	16,604	Form 4
2026-02-20	KRONE ROGER A	director	Option exercise	264	2,180	Form 4
2026-02-20	KRONE ROGER A	director	Option exercise	264	3,347	Form 4
2026-02-20	MALLETT CONRAD L JR	director	Option exercise	66	150	Form 4
2026-02-20	MALLETT CONRAD L JR	director	Option exercise	66	11,648	Form 4
2026-02-12	SCOTT RAYMOND E	director	Withheld for tax	37,369	99,789	Form 4
2026-02-12	Cardew Jason M	director	Withheld for tax	10,058	32,741	Form 4
2026-02-12	Orsini Frank C	officer	Withheld for tax	10,058	32,282	Form 4
2026-02-12	Kemp Harry Albert	officer	Withheld for tax	5,281	24,423	Form 4
2026-02-12	Davis Alicia J.	director	Withheld for tax	4,068	16,602	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i