LCNBLCNB Corp.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $19.21 · now $19.21 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LCNB has typically landed between $17.24 and $21.90 — a range of −10.2% to +14.0% from the issuance price $19.21.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($19.21) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where LCNB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $19.21 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$17.24worst · -10.2%$21.9best · +14.0%
  • now $19.21 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $19.3 (+0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $18.32–$20.28
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $17.24–$21.9
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-03-04−30.9%−31.6%+0.0%
2020-03-05−30.7%−30.7%+2.5%
2020-02-20−28.3%−28.3%+0.0%
3 best
2013-06-07+43.6%+0.0%+43.6%
2016-11-03+43.2%−1.5%+43.2%
2016-11-07+39.5%+0.0%+45.4%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+0.6%
n=20
Feb
50%
+0.5%
n=20
Mar
55%
+0.3%
n=20
Apr
50%
+0.5%
n=20
May
40%
−1.8%
n=20
Jun
60%
+1.5%
n=20
Jul
50%
+0.4%
n=20
Aug
75%
+1.3%
n=20
Sep
50%
+1.2%
n=20
Oct
45%
−0.0%
n=20
Nov
80%
+4.1%
n=20
Dec
35%
−1.1%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$21$142026-08-27: 1 insider purchase, $8K — Meilstrup Eric J2026-08-17: 1 insider purchase, $10K — Haines Robert C II2026-05-28: 1 insider purchase, $7K — Meilstrup Eric J2026-05-15: 1 insider purchase, $8K — Haines Robert C II2026-02-04: 1 insider sale, $49K — Miller Michael Robert2025-11-19: 1 insider purchase, $8K — Meilstrup Eric J2025-11-12: 1 insider sale, $47K — Huddle William G2025-08-20: 1 insider purchase, $2K — Mulligan Lawrence P Jr.2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $2K2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $8K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $47K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $49K2026-05: 2 open-market purchases, $15K2026-08: 2 open-market purchases, $18K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Meilstrup Eric J — Purchase on 2026-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Haines Robert C II — Purchase on 2026-08-17, filed same daydirector Meilstrup Eric J — Purchase on 2026-05-28, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Haines Robert C II — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Miller Michael Robert — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 14 days after the tradedirector Meilstrup Eric J — Purchase on 2025-11-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Huddle William G — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Mulligan Lawrence P Jr. — Purchase on 2025-08-20, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-27Meilstrup Eric JdirectorPurchase400 @ $19.34$8K+0.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open53,878Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Haines Robert C IIofficerPurchase500 @ $19.75$10K+1.9% of holding−1.0%not yet — horizon still open26,728Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-28Meilstrup Eric JdirectorPurchase400 @ $16.95$7K+0.8% of holding+8.0%not yet — horizon still open53,478Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-15Haines Robert C IIofficerPurchase500 @ $15.78$8K+1.9% of holding+8.8%not yet — horizon still open26,228Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-04Miller Michael RobertofficerSale2,759 @ $17.75$49K−14.1% of holding−2.5%+2.5%16,798Form 4 · filed 14 days after the trade
2025-11-19Meilstrup Eric JdirectorPurchase500 @ $15.31$8K+1.1% of holding+9.0%−3.1%45,705Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12Huddle William GdirectorSale3,000 @ $15.51$47K−16.2% of holding+13.4%−4.9%15,530Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-20Mulligan Lawrence P Jr.officerPurchase100 @ $15.19$2K+0.3% of holding+2.1%+8.9%29,176Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-28Meilstrup Eric JdirectorPurchase200 @ $14.51$3K+0.4% of holding−0.5%−0.9%45,205Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-23Mulligan Lawrence P Jr.officerPurchase1,000 @ $14.37$14K+3.6% of holding−4.9%−0.7%29,076Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-04-29Lawson Takeitha WdirectorPurchase60 @ $14.90$894+1.6% of holding−9.7%−18.0%3,844Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-26FOSTER STEVE PdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $14.70$15K+2.3% of holding+6.1%+0.9%45,049Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-17Meilstrup Eric JdirectorPurchase500 @ $17.43$9K+1.1% of holding+4.8%−4.7%46,205Form 4 · filed 365 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

35 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-02-23Meilstrup Eric JdirectorAward / grant6,87353,078Form 4
2026-02-23Haines Robert C IIofficerAward / grant4,10825,728Form 4
2026-02-23Miller Michael RobertofficerAward / grant2,67619,474Form 4
2026-02-23Ruppert Bradley AustinofficerAward / grant2,51119,608Form 4
2026-02-23Mulligan Lawrence P Jr.officerAward / grant2,39231,568Form 4
2026-02-23Walter Patricia L.officerAward / grant2,0994,455Form 4
2026-02-23Meeker Jeffrey DofficerAward / grant2,0999,545Form 4
2026-02-23Wallace Andrew MichaelofficerAward / grant1,8704,689Form 4
2026-02-23Johrendt Michael JdirectorAward / grant974154,623Form 4
2026-02-23Lawson Takeitha WdirectorAward / grant9744,818Form 4
2026-02-23KAUFMAN WILLIAM HdirectorAward / grant97439,442Form 4
2026-02-23Bradford Mary EdirectorAward / grant9749,622Form 4
2026-02-23FOSTER STEVE PdirectorAward / grant97447,187Form 4
2026-02-23WILSON STEPHEN PdirectorAward / grant97467,415Form 4
2026-02-23Cropper Spencer SdirectorAward / grant97422,961Form 4
2026-02-23Krehbiel Anne EdirectorAward / grant97412,122Form 4
2026-02-23Johnson Craig MillisdirectorAward / grant9746,622Form 4
2026-02-23Huddle William GdirectorAward / grant974147,422Form 4
2025-02-24Meilstrup Eric JdirectorAward / grant5,79545,005Form 4
2025-02-24Miller Michael RobertofficerAward / grant2,31819,557Form 4
2025-02-24Haines Robert C IIofficerAward / grant2,31821,620Form 4
2025-02-24Ruppert Bradley AustinofficerAward / grant2,17017,097Form 4
2025-02-24Mulligan Lawrence P Jr.officerAward / grant2,09928,076Form 4
2025-02-24Walter Patricia L.officerAward / grant1,2712,356Form 4
2025-02-24KAUFMAN WILLIAM HdirectorAward / grant1,16438,468Form 4
2025-02-24Johnson Craig MillisdirectorAward / grant1,1645,648Form 4
2025-02-24Johrendt Michael JdirectorAward / grant1,164153,649Form 4
2025-02-24Krehbiel Anne EdirectorAward / grant1,16411,148Form 4
2025-02-24Lawson Takeitha WdirectorAward / grant1,1643,784Form 4
2025-02-24WILSON STEPHEN PdirectorAward / grant1,16466,441Form 4
2025-02-24Cropper Spencer SdirectorAward / grant1,16421,987Form 4
2025-02-24FOSTER STEVE PdirectorAward / grant1,16446,213Form 4
2025-02-24Huddle William GdirectorAward / grant1,164146,448Form 4
2025-02-24Bradford Mary EdirectorAward / grant1,1648,648Form 4
2025-02-24Bedinghaus Robert A.directorAward / grant1,16429,525Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.