LCIDLucid Group, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Manufacturersas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.04 · now $4.04 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LCID has typically landed between $2.74 and $5.53 — a range of −32.1% to +37.0% from the issuance price $4.04.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,484 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-09-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.04) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where LCID has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.04 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$2.74worst · -32.1%$5.53best · +37.0%
  • now $4.04 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.7 (-8.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.22–$4.19
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.74–$5.53
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,484 windows spanning 2020-09-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2021-02-22−58.1%−61.5%+0.0%
2021-02-18−53.7%−61.9%+0.0%
2021-02-17−52.2%−60.7%+3.2%
3 best
2021-01-06+246.2%+0.0%+246.2%
2021-01-08+232.1%+0.0%+245.5%
2021-01-07+227.8%+0.0%+245.5%

1,484 overlapping windows · 2020-09-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+25.6%
n=6
Feb
17%
−3.4%
n=6
Mar
17%
−9.7%
n=6
Apr
17%
−13.2%
n=6
May
50%
+1.0%
n=6
Jun
33%
+1.4%
n=6
Jul
83%
+10.1%
n=6
Aug
17%
−14.8%
n=6
Sep
33%
−0.3%
n=6
Oct
33%
−7.1%
n=6
Nov
50%
−0.9%
n=6
Dec
33%
−7.3%
n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$25$42026-09-01: 1 insider sale, $5K — Winitzer Ori2026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $7K — Winitzer Ori2026-06-01: 1 insider sale, $6K — Winitzer Ori2026-04-28: 1 insider purchase, $550.0M — PUBLIC INVESTMENT FUND2025-11-25: 3 insider purchases, $0 — PUBLIC INVESTMENT FUND …2026-04: 1 open-market purchase, $550.0M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $6K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $7K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $5K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Winitzer Ori — Sale on 2026-09-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Winitzer Ori — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Winitzer Ori — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector PUBLIC INVESTMENT FUND — Purchase on 2026-04-28, filed 2 days after the tradedirector PUBLIC INVESTMENT FUND — Purchase on 2025-11-25, filed 20 days after the tradedirector PUBLIC INVESTMENT FUND — Purchase on 2025-11-25, filed 20 days after the tradedirector PUBLIC INVESTMENT FUND — Purchase on 2025-11-25, filed 20 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Winitzer OridirectorSale1,000 @ $4.80$5K−1.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open66,263Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-03Winitzer OridirectorSale1,000 @ $7.46$7K−1.5% of holding−41.5%not yet — horizon still open67,263Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-01Winitzer OridirectorSale1,000 @ $6.38$6K−3.9% of holding+1.1%not yet — horizon still open24,393Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-28PUBLIC INVESTMENT FUNDdirectorPurchase55,000 @ $10000.00$550.0Mownership Δ n/a+4.0%not yet — horizon still open55,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-25PUBLIC INVESTMENT FUNDdirectorPurchase1—ownership Δ n/a−15.7%−62.8%1Form 4 · filed 20 days after the trade
2025-11-25PUBLIC INVESTMENT FUNDdirectorPurchase1—ownership Δ n/a−15.7%−62.8%1Form 4 · filed 20 days after the trade
2025-11-25PUBLIC INVESTMENT FUNDdirectorPurchase1—ownership Δ n/a−15.7%−62.8%1Form 4 · filed 20 days after the trade
2025-04-08PUBLIC INVESTMENT FUNDdirectorPurchase1—ownership Δ n/a−14.2%−39.3%1Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-08PUBLIC INVESTMENT FUNDdirectorPurchase1—ownership Δ n/a−14.2%−39.3%1Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-08PUBLIC INVESTMENT FUNDdirectorPurchase1—ownership Δ n/a−14.2%−39.3%1Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

68 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-05DE BOCK ALEXANDERofficerAward / grant501,622501,622Form 4
2026-06-05Winterhoff MarcofficerWithheld for tax15,263339,802Form 4
2026-06-05Boussaid TaoufiqofficerWithheld for tax8,393117,829Form 4
2026-06-05Dhingra GaganofficerWithheld for tax6,801145,749Form 4
2026-06-04Nouri ChabidirectorWithheld for tax1,55622,600Form 4
2026-06-04Alnowaiser Turqi A.directorWithheld for tax1,248231,182Form 4
2026-06-04Grimm Douglas J.directorAward / grant43,87058,969Form 4
2026-06-04LIVERIS ANDREW NdirectorAward / grant43,870123,765Form 4
2026-06-04LIVERIS ANDREW NdirectorAward / grant2,599126,364Form 4
2026-06-04Lambert Lisa MariedirectorAward / grant43,87068,995Form 4
2026-06-04Lambert Lisa MariedirectorAward / grant2,92471,919Form 4
2026-06-04Alnowaiser Turqi A.directorAward / grant1,299276,351Form 4
2026-06-04Nouri ChabidirectorAward / grant43,87066,470Form 4
2026-06-04Maynard-Elliott NichelledirectorAward / grant43,87069,754Form 4
2026-06-04Winitzer OridirectorAward / grant43,87068,263Form 4
2026-06-04Wong Janet S.directorAward / grant2,92429,615Form 4
2026-06-04Alnowaiser Turqi A.directorAward / grant43,870275,052Form 4
2026-04-24Nouri ChabidirectorWithheld for tax21024,156Form 4
2026-04-15Napoli SilviodirectorAward / grant402,073402,073Form 4
2026-04-15Napoli SilviodirectorAward / grant1,000,0000Form 4
2026-03-05Winterhoff MarcofficerWithheld for tax42,925355,065Form 4
2026-03-05Boussaid TaoufiqofficerWithheld for tax20,051126,222Form 4
2026-03-05Dhingra GaganofficerWithheld for tax16,418147,853Form 4
2026-03-03Winterhoff MarcofficerAward / grant89,967397,990Form 4
2026-03-03Boussaid TaoufiqofficerAward / grant57,625146,273Form 4
2026-03-03Dhingra GaganofficerAward / grant34,952164,271Form 4
2025-12-05Winterhoff MarcofficerWithheld for tax17,457308,023Form 4
2025-12-05Dhingra GaganofficerWithheld for tax6,471129,319Form 4
2025-12-05Boussaid TaoufiqofficerWithheld for tax4,49888,648Form 4
2025-09-05Winterhoff MarcofficerWithheld for tax19,575325,480Form 4
2025-09-05Bach EricofficerWithheld for tax19,074364,492Form 4
2025-09-05Dhingra GaganofficerWithheld for tax8,262135,586Form 4
2025-09-05Boussaid TaoufiqofficerWithheld for tax4,49993,146Form 4
2025-06-17Dhingra GaganofficerAward / grant533,3331,438,535Form 4
2025-06-17Winterhoff MarcofficerAward / grant666,6663,450,551Form 4
2025-06-17Bach EricofficerAward / grant600,0003,835,647Form 4
2025-06-05Boussaid TaoufiqofficerWithheld for tax179,890976,448Form 4
2025-06-05Winterhoff MarcofficerWithheld for tax153,3842,783,885Form 4
2025-06-05Bach EricofficerWithheld for tax147,4093,235,647Form 4
2025-06-05Dhingra GaganofficerWithheld for tax46,818905,202Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.