Issued 2026-09-16 at $42.57 · now $42.57 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LBRX has typically landed between $37.29 and $59.59 — a range of −12.4% to +40.0% from the issuance price $42.57.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
234 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-09-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($42.57) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where LBRX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $42.57 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $42.57 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $46.27 (+8.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $41.96–$50.58
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $37.29–$59.59
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-05-01 | −14.0% | −14.0% | +4.6% |
| 2026-04-20 | −13.9% | −13.9% | +3.8% |
| 2026-05-11 | −13.2% | −17.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-07-20 | +57.8% | +0.0% | +57.8% |
| 2026-07-16 | +56.2% | +0.0% | +57.5% |
| 2026-07-21 | +51.5% | +0.0% | +51.5% |
234 overlapping windows · 2025-09-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~1 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Deep Track Biotechnology Master Fund, Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 286,205 @ $34.94 | $10.0M | +75.6% of holding | +13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 664,649 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Deep Track Biotechnology Master Fund, Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 378,444 @ $21.17 | $8.0M | ownership Δ n/a | +2.8% | +80.0% | 378,444 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Deep Track Biotechnology Master Fund, Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 93,925 @ $21.17 | $2.0M | ownership Δ n/a | +2.8% | +80.0% | 93,925 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Deep Track Biotechnology Master Fund, Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,000,000 @ $15.00 | $30.0M | +291.5% of holding | −5.5% | +55.1% | 2,686,138 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Pontifax Management 4 G.P. (2015) Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,000,000 @ $15.00 | $15.0M | +242.9% of holding | −5.5% | +55.1% | 1,411,681 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Nussbaum Ran | director | Purchase | 1,000,000 @ $15.00 | $15.0M | +242.9% of holding | −5.5% | +55.1% | 1,411,681 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Deep Track Biotechnology Master Fund, Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 666,666 @ $15.00 | $10.0M | ownership Δ n/a | −5.5% | +55.1% | 666,666 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Vida Ventures GP III, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 332,566 @ $15.00 | $5.0M | +60.7% of holding | −5.5% | +55.1% | 880,214 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Vida Ventures GP III, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 767 @ $15.00 | $12K | +60.8% of holding | −5.5% | +55.1% | 2,029 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
125 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | Lenz Robert A. | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Nussbaum Ran | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Garland J. Scott | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | RUFFOLO ROBERT R | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Hemrajani Rekha | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Kane William P Jr | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Luse Rebecca | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Lenz Robert A. | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | Pai Panandiker Kaya Kamlesh | officer | Award / grant | 195,000 | 195,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Vida Ventures GP III, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 13,302,666 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Vida Ventures GP III, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 30,667 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Deep Track Biotechnology Master Fund, Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 16,666,667 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Pontifax Management 4 G.P. (2015) Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 10,000,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Pontifax Management 4 G.P. (2015) Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 411,681 | 411,681 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Nussbaum Ran | director | Conversion | 10,000,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Nussbaum Ran | director | Conversion | 411,681 | 411,681 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Vida Ventures GP III, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,262 | 1,262 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Deep Track Biotechnology Master Fund, Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 686,138 | 686,138 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Vida Ventures GP III, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 547,648 | 547,648 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Pontifax Management 4 G.P. (2015) Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 411,681 | 411,681 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Vida Ventures GP III, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,262 | 1,262 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Vida Ventures GP III, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 547,648 | 547,648 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Deep Track Biotechnology Master Fund, Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 16,666,667 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Deep Track Biotechnology Master Fund, Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 686,138 | 686,138 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Deep Track Biotechnology Master Fund, Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 16,666,667 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Deep Track Biotechnology Master Fund, Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 686,138 | 686,138 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Deep Track Biotechnology Master Fund, Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 16,666,667 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Deep Track Biotechnology Master Fund, Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 686,138 | 686,138 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Vida Ventures GP III, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,262 | 1,262 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Vida Ventures GP III, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 547,648 | 547,648 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Vida Ventures GP III, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,262 | 1,262 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Vida Ventures GP III, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 547,648 | 547,648 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Vida Ventures GP III, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,262 | 1,262 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Vida Ventures GP III, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 547,648 | 547,648 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Vida Ventures GP III, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 547,648 | 547,648 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Vida Ventures GP III, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,262 | 1,262 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Pontifax Management 4 G.P. (2015) Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 10,000,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Nussbaum Ran | director | Conversion | 10,000,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Nussbaum Ran | director | Conversion | 411,681 | 411,681 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-10 | Turner Heather D | director | Award / grant | 971,828 | 971,828 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.