LBRTLiberty Energy Inc.Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $19.26 · now $19.26 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LBRT has typically landed between $15.29 and $24.25 — a range of −20.6% to +25.9% from the issuance price $19.26.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,160 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-01-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($19.26) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where LBRT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $19.26 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$15.29worst · -20.6%$24.25best · +25.9%
  • now $19.26 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $19.65 (+2.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $17.8–$21.49
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $15.29–$24.25
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,160 windows spanning 2018-01-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−71.0%−71.1%+0.0%
2020-02-18−69.7%−69.7%+5.0%
2020-02-21−69.6%−69.6%+0.0%
3 best
2020-04-22+97.7%+0.0%+97.7%
2020-04-21+92.0%−1.5%+92.0%
2020-04-01+89.7%+0.0%+114.6%

2,160 overlapping windows · 2018-01-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
63%
+9.3%
n=8
Feb
44%
−2.4%
n=9
Mar
22%
−9.2%
n=9
Apr
67%
+11.0%
n=9
May
67%
+2.4%
n=9
Jun
33%
−1.8%
n=9
Jul
67%
−0.4%
n=9
Aug
56%
−2.8%
n=9
Sep
67%
+6.2%
n=9
Oct
50%
+4.9%
n=8
Nov
38%
+0.2%
n=8
Dec
63%
+2.4%
n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$34$102026-09-01: 1 insider sale, $132K — Stock Michael2026-08-04: 1 insider sale, $67K — Stock Michael2026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $60K — Stock Michael2026-07-28: 1 insider purchase, $250K — Murti Arjun N2026-07-01: 1 insider sale, $259K — Stock Michael2026-06-02: 1 insider sale, $103K — Stock Michael2026-06-01: 1 insider sale, $393K — Stock Michael2026-05-20: 1 insider sale, $670K — Stock Michael2026-05-05: 1 insider sale, $249K — Kimble William F2026-02-17: 1 insider purchase, $250K — Murti Arjun N2026-02-06: 2 insider sales, $1.3M — ELLIOTT R SEAN, Stock Michael2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $250K2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $1.3M2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $919K2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $496K2026-07: 1 open-market purchase, $250K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $259K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $126K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $132K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Stock Michael — Sale on 2026-09-01, filed same dayofficer Stock Michael — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed same dayofficer Stock Michael — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Murti Arjun N — Purchase on 2026-07-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Stock Michael — Sale on 2026-07-01, filed same dayofficer Stock Michael — Sale on 2026-06-02, filed same dayofficer Stock Michael — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Stock Michael — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed same daydirector Kimble William F — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed same daydirector Murti Arjun N — Purchase on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer ELLIOTT R SEAN — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Stock Michael — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Stock MichaelofficerSale6,666 @ $19.84$132K−0.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open760,379Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-04Stock MichaelofficerSale3,333 @ $20.00$67K−0.4% of holding+2.3%not yet — horizon still open767,045Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-03Stock MichaelofficerSale3,333 @ $17.95$60K−0.4% of holding+5.4%not yet — horizon still open770,378Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-28Murti Arjun NdirectorPurchase14,053 @ $17.79$250K+51.0% of holding+1.2%not yet — horizon still open41,621Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-01Stock MichaelofficerSale9,999 @ $25.89$259K−1.3% of holding−23.2%not yet — horizon still open773,711Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-02Stock MichaelofficerSale3,333 @ $31.00$103K−0.4% of holding−22.0%not yet — horizon still open783,710Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-01Stock MichaelofficerSale13,332 @ $29.46$393K−1.7% of holding−15.5%not yet — horizon still open787,043Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-20Stock MichaelofficerSale19,998 @ $33.48$670K−2.4% of holding−15.3%not yet — horizon still open800,375Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-05Kimble William FdirectorSale7,350 @ $33.92$249K−7.6% of holding−10.7%not yet — horizon still open89,805Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-17Murti Arjun NdirectorPurchase9,696 @ $25.79$250K+54.2% of holding+22.1%−32.7%27,568Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-06ELLIOTT R SEANofficerSale25,000 @ $25.40$635K−6.8% of holding+14.5%−28.3%343,150Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-06Stock MichaelofficerSale25,000 @ $25.38$635K−3.1% of holding+14.5%−28.3%784,819Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-02Stock MichaelofficerSale5,000 @ $16.00$80K−0.7% of holding−24.2%−39.2%755,614Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Stock MichaelofficerSale5,000 @ $17.14$86K−0.7% of holding+3.3%−40.4%712,292Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-03Stock MichaelofficerSale10,000 @ $17.94$179K−1.4% of holding−10.2%−39.9%717,292Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-16Stock MichaelofficerSale5,000 @ $23.00$115K−0.7% of holding−25.1%−57.7%675,207Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-03Wright Christopher AdirectorSale20,000 @ $20.80$416K−0.8% of holding−17.2%−46.0%2,498,813Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-02Stock MichaelofficerSale20,000 @ $20.82$416K−2.9% of holding−14.6%−44.7%680,207Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-02Wright Christopher AdirectorSale20,000 @ $20.80$416K−0.8% of holding−14.6%−44.7%2,518,813Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-30Stock MichaelofficerSale5,000 @ $19.51$98K−0.7% of holding−9.2%−44.8%700,207Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-11Wright Christopher AdirectorSale5,064 @ $19.14$97K−0.2% of holding+15.8%−28.9%2,538,813Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-10Wright Christopher AdirectorSale2,936 @ $19.16$56K−0.1% of holding+17.1%−24.8%2,543,877Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-05Wright Christopher AdirectorSale16,000 @ $18.55$297K−0.6% of holding+20.5%−29.4%2,546,813Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-04Wright Christopher AdirectorSale16,000 @ $18.23$292K−0.6% of holding+17.9%−31.2%2,562,813Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

72 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-04-01Stock MichaelofficerWithheld for tax45,025842,708Form 4
2026-04-01Gusek RondirectorWithheld for tax45,0251,070,353Form 4
2026-04-01ELLIOTT R SEANofficerWithheld for tax16,547367,653Form 4
2026-04-01Gosney Ryan TofficerWithheld for tax11,430245,264Form 4
2026-04-01Gusek RondirectorAward / grant102,9141,115,378Form 4
2026-04-01Gosney Ryan TofficerAward / grant26,124256,694Form 4
2026-04-01Stock MichaelofficerAward / grant102,914887,733Form 4
2026-04-01ELLIOTT R SEANofficerAward / grant42,050384,200Form 4
2026-02-06ELLIOTT R SEANofficerGift1,000342,150Form 4
2026-01-19ELLIOTT R SEANofficerAward / grant49,050368,150Form 4
2026-01-19Gusek RondirectorAward / grant114,4951,012,683Form 4
2026-01-19Gosney Ryan TofficerAward / grant29,818230,570Form 4
2026-01-19Gosney Ryan TofficerAward / grant29,818230,570Form 4
2026-01-19ELLIOTT R SEANofficerAward / grant49,050368,150Form 4
2026-01-19Stock MichaelofficerAward / grant54,205809,819Form 4
2026-01-19Gusek RondirectorAward / grant114,4951,012,683Form 4
2026-01-19Stock MichaelofficerAward / grant54,205809,819Form 4
2026-01-02Murti Arjun NdirectorAward / grant9,56617,872Form 4
2026-01-02Norton Gale AdirectorAward / grant9,56685,276Form 4
2026-01-02Yake AlicedirectorAward / grant9,56612,692Form 4
2026-01-02DEA PETER AdirectorAward / grant9,56631,494Form 4
2026-01-02Kimble William FdirectorAward / grant13,66597,155Form 4
2026-01-02AYAT SIMONdirectorAward / grant9,56654,046Form 4
2026-01-02Steinbeck Cary D.directorAward / grant9,56633,453Form 4
2026-01-02Yake AlicedirectorAward / grant9,56612,692Form 4
2026-01-02Murti Arjun NdirectorAward / grant9,56617,872Form 4
2026-01-02AYAT SIMONdirectorAward / grant9,56654,046Form 4
2026-01-02DEA PETER AdirectorAward / grant9,56631,494Form 4
2026-01-02Babcock KendirectorAward / grant9,56669,035Form 4
2026-01-02Norton Gale AdirectorAward / grant9,56685,276Form 4
2026-01-02Kimble William FdirectorAward / grant13,66597,155Form 4
2026-01-02Steinbeck Cary D.directorAward / grant9,56633,453Form 4
2026-01-02Babcock KendirectorAward / grant9,56669,035Form 4
2025-12-30Steinbeck Cary D.directorGift2,70030,753Form 4
2025-10-16Yake AlicedirectorAward / grant3,1263,126Form 4
2025-10-16Yake AlicedirectorAward / grant3,1263,126Form 4
2025-04-01Gusek RondirectorWithheld for tax77,695898,188Form 4
2025-04-01Stock MichaelofficerWithheld for tax75,018760,614Form 4
2025-04-01ELLIOTT R SEANofficerWithheld for tax37,546319,100Form 4
2025-04-01Gosney Ryan TofficerWithheld for tax26,093200,752Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.