Issued 2026-09-16 at $82.70 · now $82.70 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LB has typically landed between $66.29 and $113.95 — a range of −19.8% to +37.8% from the issuance price $82.70.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
535 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-06-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($82.70) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where LB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $82.7 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $82.7 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $86.08 (+4.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $77.14–$95.02
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $66.29–$113.95
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-11-11 | −33.9% | −35.5% | +0.0% |
| 2025-11-14 | −32.2% | −32.2% | +0.0% |
| 2025-11-12 | −32.2% | −32.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-10-13 | +65.2% | −0.5% | +65.2% |
| 2024-10-10 | +60.7% | +0.0% | +60.7% |
| 2025-10-14 | +58.2% | +0.0% | +66.0% |
535 overlapping windows · 2024-06-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | LandBridge Holdings LLC | director | Sale | 1,250,000 @ $75.05 | $93.8M | −100.0% of holding | +18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Capobianco David N | director | Sale | 1,250,000 @ $75.05 | $93.8M | −100.0% of holding | +18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | WATSON CHARLES L. | director | Sale | 13,000 @ $75.00 | $975K | −16.8% of holding | +0.3% | +4.6% | 64,250 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-04 | WATSON CHARLES L. | director | Sale | 9,670 @ $75.19 | $727K | −11.1% of holding | −2.9% | +2.9% | 77,250 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | WATSON CHARLES L. | director | Sale | 30,680 @ $74.07 | $2.3M | −26.1% of holding | −1.5% | +6.4% | 86,920 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | McNeely Scott Lloyd | officer | Purchase | 549 @ $45.49 | $25K | +0.7% of holding | +21.9% | +63.4% | 81,276 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Long Jason Thomas | director | Purchase | 2,143 @ $46.59 | $100K | +1.0% of holding | +19.1% | +58.7% | 223,546 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Bolling Harrison Fenner | officer | Purchase | 850 @ $46.84 | $40K | +1.3% of holding | +19.1% | +58.7% | 66,874 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Capobianco David N | director | Sale | 2,500,000 @ $70.00 | $175.0M | −100.0% of holding | −17.5% | +9.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | LandBridge Holdings LLC | director | Sale | 2,500,000 @ $70.00 | $175.0M | −100.0% of holding | −17.5% | +9.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Five Point Energy Fund II AIV-VII LP | director | Sale | 2,500,000 @ $70.00 | $175.0M | −100.0% of holding | −17.5% | +9.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Capobianco David N | director | Sale | 1,900,000 @ $75.25 | $143.0M | −100.0% of holding | −20.6% | −41.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | LandBridge Holdings LLC | director | Sale | 1,900,000 @ $75.25 | $143.0M | −100.0% of holding | −20.6% | −41.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
43 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | LandBridge Holdings LLC | director | Other acquisition | 1,250,000 | 47,168,908 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | LandBridge Holdings LLC | director | Conversion | 1,250,000 | 1,250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Capobianco David N | director | Other acquisition | 1,250,000 | 47,168,908 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Capobianco David N | director | Conversion | 1,250,000 | 1,250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | LandBridge Holdings LLC | director | Conversion | 1,250,000 | 47,168,908 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Capobianco David N | director | Conversion | 1,250,000 | 47,168,908 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Long Jason Thomas | director | Award / grant | 20,358 | 210,479 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Bolling Harrison Fenner | officer | Award / grant | 13,572 | 71,294 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Chase Valerie | director | Award / grant | 1,900 | 14,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Daul Ty P. | director | Award / grant | 1,900 | 20,295 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | WATSON CHARLES L. | director | Award / grant | 1,900 | 11,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Williams Jason Frederick | officer | Award / grant | 13,572 | 68,447 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Nicolas Andrea Liria | director | Award / grant | 1,900 | 11,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | McNeely Scott Lloyd | officer | Award / grant | 14,929 | 84,017 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Long Jason Thomas | director | Withheld for tax | 33,425 | 190,121 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | McNeely Scott Lloyd | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,188 | 69,088 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Williams Jason Frederick | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,758 | 54,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bolling Harrison Fenner | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,152 | 57,722 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-18 | Capobianco David N | director | Conversion | 2,500,000 | 48,593,505 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-18 | LandBridge Holdings LLC | director | Other acquisition | 2,500,000 | 48,593,505 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-18 | LandBridge Holdings LLC | director | Conversion | 2,500,000 | 2,500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-18 | LandBridge Holdings LLC | director | Conversion | 2,500,000 | 48,593,505 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-18 | Five Point Energy Fund II AIV-VII LP | director | Other acquisition | 2,500,000 | 48,593,505 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-18 | Five Point Energy Fund II AIV-VII LP | director | Conversion | 2,500,000 | 2,500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-18 | Five Point Energy Fund II AIV-VII LP | director | Conversion | 2,500,000 | 48,593,505 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-18 | Capobianco David N | director | Conversion | 2,500,000 | 2,500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-18 | Capobianco David N | director | Other acquisition | 2,500,000 | 48,593,505 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-27 | WATSON CHARLES L. | director | Award / grant | 3,895 | 11,248 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-27 | Nicolas Andrea Liria | director | Award / grant | 3,895 | 11,248 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-27 | Daul Ty P. | director | Award / grant | 3,895 | 20,048 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-27 | Chase Valerie | director | Award / grant | 3,895 | 14,173 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Long Jason Thomas | director | Withheld for tax | 33,424 | 221,403 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | McNeely Scott Lloyd | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,187 | 80,727 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Williams Jason Frederick | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,757 | 64,633 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Bolling Harrison Fenner | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,366 | 66,024 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-23 | LandBridge Holdings LLC | director | Conversion | 1,900,000 | 51,241,496 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-23 | Capobianco David N | director | Other acquisition | 1,900,000 | 51,241,496 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-23 | Capobianco David N | director | Conversion | 1,900,000 | 1,900,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-23 | Capobianco David N | director | Conversion | 1,900,000 | 51,241,496 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-23 | LandBridge Holdings LLC | director | Other acquisition | 1,900,000 | 51,241,496 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.