LAZLazard IncFinancial Services · Financial - Capital Marketsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $36.61 · now $36.61 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LAZ has typically landed between $31.52 and $43.02 — a range of −13.9% to +17.5% from the issuance price $36.61.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($36.61) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where LAZ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $36.61 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$31.52worst · -13.9%$43.02best · +17.5%
  • now $36.61 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $36.82 (+0.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $34.29–$39.36
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $31.52–$43.02
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−49.2%−49.2%+0.0%
2020-02-20−46.4%−46.4%+0.0%
2020-02-18−42.5%−42.5%+0.2%
3 best
2009-07-07+43.6%+0.0%+43.6%
2009-07-09+43.6%+0.0%+43.6%
2009-07-10+42.4%+0.0%+42.8%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
70%
+3.1%
n=20
Feb
45%
−1.9%
n=20
Mar
35%
−1.7%
n=20
Apr
45%
+0.6%
n=20
May
45%
−1.0%
n=20
Jun
40%
−2.3%
n=20
Jul
85%
+8.7%
n=20
Aug
65%
+0.7%
n=20
Sep
50%
−2.9%
n=20
Oct
70%
+2.2%
n=20
Nov
75%
+3.0%
n=20
Dec
55%
+0.9%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$56$372026-08-25: 1 insider sale, $5.4M — Orszag Peter Richard2026-03-19: 1 insider sale, $155K — Hogbin Christopher2026-03-18: 1 insider sale, $318K — Hogbin Christopher2026-03-17: 2 insider sales, $2.8M — Orszag Peter Richard …2025-09-16: 1 insider sale, $1.8M — Orszag Peter Richard2025-09-11: 1 insider sale, $2.8M — Russo Evan L2025-09-10: 2 insider sales, $1.4M — Russo Evan L, Gathy Michael2025-09: 4 open-market sales, $6.0M2026-03: 4 open-market sales, $3.3M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $5.4M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Orszag Peter Richard — Sale on 2026-08-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hogbin Christopher — Sale on 2026-03-19, filed same dayofficer Hogbin Christopher — Sale on 2026-03-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Orszag Peter Richard — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Orszag Peter Richard — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Orszag Peter Richard — Sale on 2025-09-16, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Russo Evan L — Sale on 2025-09-11, filed same dayofficer Russo Evan L — Sale on 2025-09-10, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Gathy Michael — Sale on 2025-09-10, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-25Orszag Peter RicharddirectorSale125,000 @ $43.52$5.4M−32.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open260,942Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-19Hogbin ChristopherofficerSale3,944 @ $39.37$155K−25.0% of holding+13.5%not yet — horizon still open11,829Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-18Hogbin ChristopherofficerSale7,885 @ $40.37$318K−33.3% of holding+15.3%not yet — horizon still open15,773Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17Orszag Peter RicharddirectorSale67,170 @ $40.73$2.7M−24.0% of holding+14.4%−20.6%212,942Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17Orszag Peter RicharddirectorSale2,000 @ $41.66$83K−0.9% of holding+14.4%−20.6%210,942Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-16Orszag Peter RicharddirectorSale32,475 @ $54.09$1.8M−15.1% of holding−9.4%−25.9%183,274Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-11Russo Evan LofficerSale50,000 @ $56.95$2.8M−18.0% of holding−15.1%−28.4%227,915Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-10Russo Evan LofficerSale25,000 @ $55.71$1.4M−8.3% of holding−14.8%−28.2%277,915Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-10Gathy MichaelofficerSale617 @ $55.37$34K−100.0% of holding−14.8%−28.2%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-11Soto AlexandraofficerSale85,894 @ $43.81$3.8M−43.0% of holding+17.3%+2.6%113,872Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-17Orszag Peter RicharddirectorSale38,187 @ $45.31$1.7M−16.3% of holding−16.8%+4.4%196,637Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-17Orszag Peter RicharddirectorSale26,352 @ $45.91$1.2M−13.4% of holding−16.8%+4.4%170,285Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-14Orszag Peter RicharddirectorSale37,331 @ $45.51$1.7M−13.7% of holding−16.9%+5.1%234,824Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-14Orszag Peter RicharddirectorSale27,208 @ $44.87$1.2M−9.1% of holding−16.9%+5.1%272,155Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-14Russo Evan LofficerSale25,000 @ $55.32$1.4M−13.3% of holding−8.5%−7.0%163,448Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-13Russo Evan LofficerSale15,000 @ $54.00$810K−43.7% of holding−8.3%−3.8%19,336Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-12Russo Evan LofficerSale50,000 @ $53.40$2.7M−59.3% of holding−9.5%−2.0%34,336Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-12Russo Evan LofficerSale35,000 @ $53.64$1.9M−15.7% of holding−9.5%−2.0%188,448Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

163 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-24Orszag Peter RicharddirectorDisposition75,000385,942Form 4
2026-08-24Orszag Peter RicharddirectorOption exercise250,000460,942Form 4
2026-08-24Orszag Peter RicharddirectorOption exercise250,000460,942Form 4
2026-08-24Orszag Peter RicharddirectorOption exercise250,0001,000,000Form 4
2026-08-24Orszag Peter RicharddirectorDisposition75,000385,942Form 4
2026-08-24Orszag Peter RicharddirectorOption exercise250,0001,000,000Form 4
2026-08-24Orszag Peter RicharddirectorOption exercise250,0001,000,000Form 4
2026-08-24Orszag Peter RicharddirectorDisposition75,000385,942Form 4
2026-08-24Orszag Peter RicharddirectorOption exercise250,0001,000,000Form 4
2026-08-24Orszag Peter RicharddirectorOption exercise250,000460,942Form 4
2026-08-24Orszag Peter RicharddirectorDisposition75,000385,942Form 4
2026-08-24Orszag Peter RicharddirectorOption exercise250,000460,942Form 4
2026-08-17Howe Stephen R. Jr.directorAward / grant10314,843Form 4
2026-08-14Gathy MichaelofficerAward / grant14513,037Form 4
2026-08-14Farr TracyofficerAward / grant42638,395Form 4
2026-08-14Gathy MichaelofficerAward / grant14513,037Form 4
2026-08-14Hogbin ChristopherofficerAward / grant2,954266,659Form 4
2026-08-14Farr TracyofficerAward / grant42638,395Form 4
2026-08-14Soto AlexandraofficerAward / grant3,413308,034Form 4
2026-08-14Hogbin ChristopherofficerAward / grant2,954266,659Form 4
2026-08-14Gathy MichaelofficerAward / grant14513,037Form 4
2026-08-14Soto AlexandraofficerAward / grant3,413308,034Form 4
2026-08-14Gathy MichaelofficerAward / grant14513,037Form 4
2026-08-14Farr TracyofficerAward / grant42638,395Form 4
2026-08-14Soto AlexandraofficerAward / grant3,413308,034Form 4
2026-08-14Hogbin ChristopherofficerAward / grant2,954266,659Form 4
2026-08-14Soto AlexandraofficerAward / grant3,413308,034Form 4
2026-08-14Farr TracyofficerAward / grant42638,395Form 4
2026-08-14Hogbin ChristopherofficerAward / grant2,954266,659Form 4
2026-07-23Elsesser KathydirectorAward / grant3,9823,982Form 4
2026-06-01Achleitner Ann-KristindirectorAward / grant3,77727,036Form 4
2026-06-01Alper Andrew MdirectorAward / grant4,068103,774Form 4
2026-06-01Harrison PeterdirectorAward / grant3,7778,669Form 4
2026-06-01Howe Stephen R. Jr.directorAward / grant4,24214,740Form 4
2026-06-01Jarrard MichelledirectorAward / grant4,01047,389Form 4
2026-06-01Knobloch IrisdirectorAward / grant4,01042,160Form 4
2026-06-01Shevelenko DmitrydirectorAward / grant3,7775,903Form 4
2026-06-01SCHULMAN DANIEL HdirectorAward / grant4,35815,037Form 4
2026-05-22Soto AlexandraofficerAward / grant3,138304,621Form 4
2026-05-22Farr TracyofficerAward / grant39337,969Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.