Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.20 · now $4.20 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LAW has typically landed between $2.96 and $5.41 — a range of −29.5% to +28.9% from the issuance price $4.20.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,274 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-07-21 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.20) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where LAW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.2 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $4.2 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.12 (-1.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.6–$4.64
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.96–$5.41
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,274 windows spanning 2021-07-21 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-01-26 | −58.5% | −58.5% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-15 | −55.7% | −55.7% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-12 | −54.5% | −54.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-08-06 | +58.3% | +0.0% | +58.3% |
| 2023-05-12 | +51.5% | +0.0% | +51.5% |
| 2023-01-03 | +49.3% | −3.6% | +49.3% |
1,274 overlapping windows · 2021-07-21 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
60%
+3.4%
n=5
Feb
20%
−15.3%
n=5
Mar
40%
+1.8%
n=5
Apr
20%
−4.7%
n=5
May
40%
−0.6%
n=5
Jun
40%
−4.1%
n=5
Jul
80%
+10.4%
n=5
Aug
50%
+3.1%
n=6
Sep
33%
−7.4%
n=6
Oct
40%
+1.8%
n=5
Nov
60%
−8.6%
n=5
Dec
40%
−0.3%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Antoon Melanie | officer | Sale | 8,514 @ $4.18 | $36K | −3.1% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 267,507 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Herckis Karen | officer | Sale | 8,487 @ $4.18 | $35K | −4.5% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 181,824 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Crum Richard Francis | officer | Sale | 7,426 @ $4.18 | $31K | −2.2% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 335,183 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Garcia Susan | officer | Sale | 6,840 @ $4.18 | $29K | −4.7% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 139,109 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Friedrichsen Eric | director | Purchase | 7,500 @ $4.26 | $32K | +0.5% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,481,180 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Antoon Melanie | officer | Sale | 8,590 @ $3.61 | $31K | −3.0% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 276,021 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Herckis Karen | officer | Sale | 8,562 @ $3.61 | $31K | −4.3% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 189,311 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Crum Richard Francis | officer | Sale | 7,492 @ $3.61 | $27K | −2.1% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 341,609 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Garcia Susan | officer | Sale | 6,972 @ $3.61 | $25K | −4.6% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 145,949 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Friedrichsen Eric | director | Purchase | 9,000 @ $3.97 | $36K | +0.6% of holding | −13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,517,172 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Hill Scott A | director | Purchase | 8,918 @ $3.73 | $33K | +21.7% of holding | +0.1% | −4.9% | 50,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Hill Scott A | director | Purchase | 41,082 @ $3.31 | $136K | ownership Δ n/a | +13.5% | +12.1% | 41,082 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Crum Richard Francis | officer | Sale | 6,262 @ $3.24 | $20K | −1.8% of holding | +13.5% | +12.1% | 349,101 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Garcia Susan | officer | Sale | 5,956 @ $3.24 | $19K | −3.7% of holding | +13.5% | +12.1% | 152,921 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Antoon Melanie | officer | Sale | 4,882 @ $3.24 | $16K | −1.7% of holding | +13.5% | +12.1% | 284,611 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Herckis Karen | officer | Sale | 3,978 @ $3.24 | $13K | −2.0% of holding | +13.5% | +12.1% | 197,873 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | GOODMAN ROBERT P | director | Purchase | 1,026,700 @ $3.19 | $3.3M | +8719.3% of holding | +25.5% | +20.8% | 1,038,475 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Srinivasan Krishna | director | Purchase | 40,000 @ $3.25 | $130K | +800.0% of holding | +25.5% | +20.8% | 45,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Friedrichsen Eric | director | Purchase | 15,500 @ $2.90 | $45K | +1.0% of holding | +25.5% | +20.8% | 1,508,172 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Srinivasan Krishna | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $2.77 | $14K | ownership Δ n/a | +31.2% | +35.5% | 5,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Antoon Melanie | officer | Sale | 9,289 @ $3.07 | $29K | −4.4% of holding | +43.5% | +33.4% | 203,421 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Herckis Karen | officer | Sale | 8,171 @ $3.07 | $25K | −5.8% of holding | +43.5% | +33.4% | 132,259 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Crum Richard Francis | officer | Sale | 6,508 @ $3.07 | $20K | −2.8% of holding | +43.5% | +33.4% | 224,412 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Garcia Susan | officer | Sale | 3,743 @ $3.07 | $11K | −4.8% of holding | +43.5% | +33.4% | 74,237 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Offerdahl James | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $3.99 | $12K | +1.4% of holding | +10.0% | −6.9% | 223,652 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Antoon Melanie | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $8.71 | $174K | −8.6% of holding | −17.2% | −67.8% | 212,710 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Lafair Michael | officer | Sale | 15,214 @ $6.59 | $100K | −1.9% of holding | +24.9% | −54.1% | 802,592 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Garcia Susan | officer | Sale | 11,162 @ $6.59 | $74K | −12.5% of holding | +24.9% | −54.1% | 77,980 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Antoon Melanie | officer | Sale | 7,071 @ $6.59 | $47K | −2.9% of holding | +24.9% | −54.1% | 232,710 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Herckis Karen | officer | Sale | 5,826 @ $6.59 | $38K | −4.0% of holding | +24.9% | −54.1% | 140,430 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Crum Richard Francis | officer | Sale | 4,779 @ $6.59 | $31K | −2.0% of holding | +24.9% | −54.1% | 229,170 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Friedrichsen Eric | director | Purchase | 6,660 @ $6.68 | $44K | +0.6% of holding | +29.3% | −57.4% | 1,153,727 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | BOGAN THOMAS F | director | Purchase | 7,001 @ $5.98 | $42K | +4.3% of holding | +20.3% | −42.0% | 171,090 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | BOGAN THOMAS F | director | Purchase | 6,929 @ $5.98 | $41K | +4.4% of holding | +7.3% | −33.3% | 164,089 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-17 | BOGAN THOMAS F | director | Purchase | 17,902 @ $5.94 | $106K | +12.9% of holding | +12.9% | −33.5% | 157,160 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-07 | BOGAN THOMAS F | director | Purchase | 13,680 @ $5.95 | $81K | +10.9% of holding | +3.8% | −41.7% | 139,258 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | BOGAN THOMAS F | director | Purchase | 6,500 @ $5.99 | $39K | +5.5% of holding | +5.8% | −30.0% | 125,578 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | BOGAN THOMAS F | director | Purchase | 17,988 @ $5.98 | $108K | +17.8% of holding | +1.0% | −29.1% | 119,078 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | BOGAN THOMAS F | director | Purchase | 30,000 @ $5.80 | $174K | +42.2% of holding | +6.3% | −25.3% | 101,090 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Lafair Michael | officer | Sale | 14,844 @ $4.82 | $72K | −1.8% of holding | +24.6% | −44.4% | 822,723 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Crum Richard Francis | officer | Sale | 10,552 @ $4.82 | $51K | −4.3% of holding | +24.6% | −44.4% | 233,949 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Antoon Melanie | officer | Sale | 6,898 @ $4.82 | $33K | −2.8% of holding | +24.6% | −44.4% | 239,781 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Herckis Karen | officer | Sale | 5,677 @ $4.82 | $27K | −3.7% of holding | +24.6% | −44.4% | 146,256 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Offerdahl James | director | Purchase | 6,500 @ $4.92 | $32K | +3.0% of holding | +22.1% | −29.8% | 220,652 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Friedrichsen Eric | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $4.51 | $45K | +0.9% of holding | +20.8% | −23.5% | 1,147,067 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Friedrichsen Eric | director | Sale | 118,054 @ $3.93 | $464K | −9.4% of holding | +3.1% | +55.3% | 1,136,317 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Lafair Michael | officer | Sale | 15,395 @ $3.93 | $61K | −1.8% of holding | +3.1% | +55.3% | 841,734 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Antoon Melanie | officer | Sale | 7,155 @ $3.93 | $28K | −2.8% of holding | +3.1% | +55.3% | 246,679 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Herckis Karen | officer | Sale | 5,875 @ $3.93 | $23K | −3.7% of holding | +3.1% | +55.3% | 151,933 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | Herckis Karen | officer | Sale | 3,832 @ $5.11 | $20K | −2.4% of holding | −9.6% | −6.8% | 157,808 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | Lafair Michael | officer | Sale | 3,747 @ $5.11 | $19K | −0.4% of holding | −9.6% | −6.8% | 862,046 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | Antoon Melanie | officer | Sale | 2,824 @ $5.11 | $14K | −1.1% of holding | −9.6% | −6.8% | 253,834 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Lafair Michael | officer | Sale | 13,146 @ $5.19 | $68K | −1.5% of holding | −6.5% | −12.4% | 865,793 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Herckis Karen | officer | Sale | 4,424 @ $5.19 | $23K | −2.7% of holding | −6.5% | −12.4% | 161,640 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Antoon Melanie | officer | Sale | 3,278 @ $5.19 | $17K | −1.3% of holding | −6.5% | −12.4% | 256,658 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
51 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Friedrichsen Eric | director | Withheld for tax | 44,492 | 1,436,688 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Mintz Andre L | director | Award / grant | 74,442 | 74,442 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | GOODMAN ROBERT P | director | Award / grant | 41,096 | 69,132 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Hill Scott A | director | Award / grant | 41,096 | 264,326 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Srinivasan Krishna | director | Award / grant | 41,096 | 86,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Offerdahl James | director | Award / grant | 41,096 | 264,748 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Blount Susan L | director | Award / grant | 41,096 | 135,919 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | BOGAN THOMAS F | director | Award / grant | 41,096 | 212,186 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Friedrichsen Eric | director | Withheld for tax | 44,492 | 1,472,680 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Williams Toby J. | director | Award / grant | 67,720 | 67,720 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Friedrichsen Eric | director | Award / grant | 221,949 | 1,492,672 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Antoon Melanie | officer | Award / grant | 43,162 | 289,493 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Herckis Karen | officer | Award / grant | 41,726 | 173,985 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Friedrichsen Eric | director | Award / grant | 151,695 | 1,270,723 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Antoon Melanie | officer | Award / grant | 42,910 | 246,331 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Garcia Susan | officer | Award / grant | 41,730 | 158,877 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Crum Richard Francis | officer | Award / grant | 61,110 | 285,522 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Crum Richard Francis | officer | Award / grant | 69,841 | 355,363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Herckis Karen | officer | Award / grant | 27,866 | 201,851 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Garcia Susan | officer | Award / grant | 42,910 | 117,147 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Friedrichsen Eric | director | Withheld for tax | 35,699 | 1,119,028 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Barfoot Aaron Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 246,609 | 246,609 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Lafair Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,639 | 799,314 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-30 | Lafair Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,639 | 800,953 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-31 | Lafair Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,639 | 817,806 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Lafair Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,639 | 819,445 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-17 | LOVP SBIC MANAGEMENT SERVICES, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 4,889,700 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-17 | LOVP SBIC MANAGEMENT SERVICES, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 51,432 | 51,432 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-17 | LOVP SBIC MANAGEMENT SERVICES, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 4,612,116 | 6,324,973 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-31 | Lafair Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,639 | 821,084 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-31 | Lafair Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,639 | 837,567 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Lafair Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,639 | 838,456 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Blount Susan L | director | Award / grant | 34,169 | 94,823 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Burnette Colette Pierce | director | Award / grant | 34,169 | 91,774 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Hill Scott A | director | Award / grant | 34,169 | 223,230 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Offerdahl James | director | Award / grant | 34,169 | 214,152 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-31 | Lafair Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,639 | 840,095 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-30 | Lafair Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,639 | 857,129 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Lafair Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,639 | 858,768 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-13 | BOGAN THOMAS F | director | Award / grant | 71,090 | 71,090 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.