LADLithia Motors, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Dealershipsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $339.23 · now $339.23 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LAD has typically landed between $287.25 and $405.55 — a range of −15.3% to +19.6% from the issuance price $339.23.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($339.23) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where LAD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $339.23 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$287.25worst · -15.3%$405.55best · +19.6%
  • now $339.23 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $339.71 (+0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $315.59–$363.82
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $287.25–$405.55
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−65.4%−65.4%+0.0%
2008-09-29−63.6%−64.7%+0.0%
2008-09-19−57.6%−64.5%+0.0%
3 best
2009-04-13+162.1%+0.0%+162.1%
2009-04-08+153.8%+0.0%+167.7%
2009-04-15+148.0%+0.0%+150.3%

5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+0.8%
n=20
Feb
50%
−1.4%
n=20
Mar
40%
−3.9%
n=20
Apr
55%
+6.8%
n=20
May
60%
+4.9%
n=20
Jun
50%
+4.1%
n=20
Jul
70%
+11.2%
n=20
Aug
45%
−0.6%
n=20
Sep
45%
−0.1%
n=20
Oct
60%
+0.2%
n=20
Nov
70%
+2.9%
n=20
Dec
60%
+2.6%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$427$2422026-09-11: 1 insider sale, $28K — Loretz Congdon Stacy2026-09-08: 1 insider sale, $120K — Stork David2026-06-12: 1 insider sale, $24K — Loretz Congdon Stacy2026-06-10: 1 insider sale, $50K — McIntyre Shauna2026-05-26: 1 insider sale, $83K — Bailey Richard J Jr2026-05-11: 1 insider sale, $72K — McIntyre Shauna2026-03-12: 1 insider sale, $19K — Loretz Congdon Stacy2025-12-12: 1 insider sale, $27K — Loretz Congdon Stacy2025-08-22: 1 insider sale, $81K — Miramontes Louis2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $81K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $27K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $19K2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $156K2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $74K2026-09: 2 open-market sales, $147K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Loretz Congdon Stacy — Sale on 2026-09-11, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Stork David — Sale on 2026-09-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Loretz Congdon Stacy — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector McIntyre Shauna — Sale on 2026-06-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Bailey Richard J Jr — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 1 day after the tradedirector McIntyre Shauna — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Loretz Congdon Stacy — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Loretz Congdon Stacy — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Miramontes Louis — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11Loretz Congdon StacydirectorSale75 @ $370.73$28K−3.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open2,300Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-09-08Stork DavidofficerSale320 @ $373.49$120K−5.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open5,401Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-12Loretz Congdon StacydirectorSale75 @ $315.00$24K−3.1% of holding+3.7%not yet — horizon still open2,375Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-10McIntyre ShaunadirectorSale165 @ $305.64$50K−8.9% of holding+0.8%not yet — horizon still open1,681Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-26Bailey Richard J JrdirectorSale297 @ $280.57$83K−28.1% of holding+6.8%not yet — horizon still open760Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-11McIntyre ShaunadirectorSale245 @ $294.64$72K−11.7% of holding+8.2%not yet — horizon still open1,846Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-12Loretz Congdon StacydirectorSale75 @ $259.33$19K−4.1% of holding+5.8%+25.1%1,735Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-12Loretz Congdon StacydirectorSale75 @ $360.00$27K−4.0% of holding−4.9%−21.0%1,810Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-22Miramontes LouisdirectorSale250 @ $324.06$81K−4.2% of holding−0.8%−20.2%5,679Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-31McIntyre ShaunadirectorSale256 @ $293.05$75K−15.7% of holding+15.1%+2.6%1,376Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-01McIntyre ShaunadirectorSale337 @ $295.94$100K−17.1% of holding+0.9%−15.0%1,632Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-14McIntyre ShaunadirectorSale248 @ $290.84$72K−16.1% of holding+2.4%−5.9%1,297Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-12Loretz Congdon StacydirectorSale270 @ $298.80$81K−18.2% of holding+3.8%−2.7%1,213Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-14Chamberlain AdamofficerSale403 @ $384.28$155K−13.4% of holding−13.3%−25.5%2,605Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-13GLANDON GARY MofficerSale325 @ $387.86$126K−16.3% of holding−14.2%−27.5%1,665Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-10Stork DavidofficerSale267 @ $379.50$101K−7.7% of holding−3.9%−13.3%3,197Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

50 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-03DEBOER SIDNEY BdirectorWithheld for tax8126,137Form 4
2026-05-01DEBOER SIDNEY BdirectorWithheld for tax5826,218Form 4
2026-04-30McKinney Cassandra M.directorAward / grant7152,015Form 4
2026-04-30Miramontes LouisdirectorAward / grant7156,394Form 4
2026-04-30McIntyre ShaunadirectorAward / grant7152,091Form 4
2026-04-30Loretz Congdon StacydirectorAward / grant7152,450Form 4
2026-04-30Lentz James E.directorAward / grant7153,260Form 4
2026-04-30Bailey Richard J JrdirectorAward / grant7151,057Form 4
2026-04-30Huskins Priya CheriandirectorAward / grant715715Form 4
2026-04-30DEBOER SIDNEY BdirectorAward / grant71526,276Form 4
2026-04-30O'NEILL HEIDIdirectorAward / grant1,0821,424Form 4
2026-03-02DEBOER SIDNEY BdirectorWithheld for tax5425,561Form 4
2026-01-09DEBOER BRYAN BofficerWithheld for tax46,428204,845Form 4
2026-01-09Miller TinaofficerWithheld for tax7,68816,885Form 4
2026-01-09Hines George NofficerWithheld for tax4,0717,894Form 4
2026-01-09Stork DavidofficerWithheld for tax1,8735,721Form 4
2026-01-09Miller TinaofficerAward / grant1,69424,573Form 4
2026-01-09Stork DavidofficerAward / grant3,8967,115Form 4
2026-01-09Stork DavidofficerAward / grant4797,594Form 4
2026-01-09Hines George NofficerAward / grant6,72811,154Form 4
2026-01-09DEBOER BRYAN BofficerAward / grant76,129242,950Form 4
2026-01-09DEBOER BRYAN BofficerAward / grant8,323251,273Form 4
2026-01-09Miller TinaofficerAward / grant12,74722,879Form 4
2026-01-09Hines George NofficerAward / grant81111,965Form 4
2025-11-01DEBOER SIDNEY BdirectorWithheld for tax7925,615Form 4
2025-10-01Bailey Richard J JrdirectorAward / grant342342Form 4
2025-10-01O'NEILL HEIDIdirectorAward / grant342342Form 4
2025-08-01DEBOER SIDNEY BdirectorWithheld for tax7925,694Form 4
2025-05-16DEBOER SIDNEY BdirectorGift5,00025,773Form 4
2025-05-01DEBOER SIDNEY BdirectorWithheld for tax7935,773Form 4
2025-04-24Miramontes LouisdirectorAward / grant6725,929Form 4
2025-04-24Lentz James E.directorAward / grant6722,545Form 4
2025-04-24McIntyre ShaunadirectorAward / grant6721,969Form 4
2025-04-24DEBOER SIDNEY BdirectorAward / grant67235,852Form 4
2025-04-24McKinney Cassandra M.directorAward / grant6721,300Form 4
2025-04-24Loretz Congdon StacydirectorAward / grant6721,885Form 4
2025-03-01DEBOER SIDNEY BdirectorWithheld for tax8635,180Form 4
2025-01-03DEBOER BRYAN BofficerWithheld for tax12,855168,843Form 4
2025-01-03Holzshu ChrisofficerWithheld for tax3,75828,296Form 4
2025-01-03Miller TinaofficerWithheld for tax1,66810,132Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.