LACLithium Americas Corp.Basic Materials · Industrial Materialsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.78 · now $2.78 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LAC has typically landed between $1.98 and $3.80 — a range of −28.9% to +36.7% from the issuance price $2.78.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,488 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-09-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.78) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where LAC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.78 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$1.98worst · -28.9%$3.8best · +36.7%
  • now $2.78 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.67 (-3.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.36–$2.99
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.98–$3.8
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,488 windows spanning 2008-09-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-11-06−69.6%−69.6%+0.0%
2008-10-21−69.0%−69.0%+0.0%
2008-11-05−66.7%−66.7%+0.0%
3 best
2008-12-22+600.0%+0.0%+600.0%
2008-12-08+542.9%+0.0%+600.0%
2008-12-05+512.5%−12.5%+512.5%

4,488 overlapping windows · 2008-09-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~18 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
72%
+22.0%
n=18
Feb
56%
+10.2%
n=18
Mar
33%
−2.2%
n=18
Apr
28%
−1.6%
n=18
May
50%
+1.8%
n=18
Jun
39%
−8.7%
n=18
Jul
50%
+1.1%
n=18
Aug
50%
+7.1%
n=18
Sep
67%
+14.9%
n=18
Oct
28%
−4.5%
n=18
Nov
50%
−1.2%
n=18
Dec
33%
+1.6%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$10$32026-03-20: 1 insider purchase, $4K — BROWN MICHAEL JOHN2025-11-17: 2 insider sales, $231 — GRANDY EDWARD …2025-11-14: 4 insider sales, $98K — GRANDY EDWARD, GERSPACHER RICHARD, CROWLEY TIMOTHY AMBROSE, BARNUM AUBREE2025-10-16: 2 insider sales, $429K — GERSPACHER RICHARD …2025-10-01: 1 insider sale, $3.4M — ZAWADZKI ALEXI ILLYA2025-10-01: 1 insider purchase, $192K — ZAWADZKI ALEXI ILLYA2025-09-05: 1 insider purchase, $3K — BROWN MICHAEL JOHN2025-09: 1 open-market purchase, $3K2025-10: 1 open-market purchase, $192K2025-10: 3 open-market sales, $3.8M2025-11: 6 open-market sales, $98K2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $4K↑ buys↓ salesdirector BROWN MICHAEL JOHN — Purchase on 2026-03-20, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer GRANDY EDWARD — Sale on 2025-11-17, filed 9 days after the tradeofficer GRANDY EDWARD — Sale on 2025-11-17, filed 9 days after the tradeofficer GRANDY EDWARD — Sale on 2025-11-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer GERSPACHER RICHARD — Sale on 2025-11-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer CROWLEY TIMOTHY AMBROSE — Sale on 2025-11-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer BARNUM AUBREE — Sale on 2025-11-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer GERSPACHER RICHARD — Sale on 2025-10-16, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer GERSPACHER RICHARD — Sale on 2025-10-16, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer ZAWADZKI ALEXI ILLYA — Sale on 2025-10-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer ZAWADZKI ALEXI ILLYA — Purchase on 2025-10-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BROWN MICHAEL JOHN — Purchase on 2025-09-05, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-03-20BROWN MICHAEL JOHNdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $3.78$4K+16.1% of holding+19.2%not yet — horizon still open7,201Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-17GRANDY EDWARDofficerSale14 @ $8.24$115−0.0% of holding−4.2%−12.2%135,452Form 4 · filed 9 days after the trade
2025-11-17GRANDY EDWARDofficerSale14 @ $8.24$115−0.0% of holding−4.2%−12.2%135,452Form 4 · filed 9 days after the trade
2025-11-14GRANDY EDWARDofficerSale6,183 @ $4.50$28K−4.4% of holding+6.1%−5.6%135,466Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-14GERSPACHER RICHARDofficerSale6,118 @ $4.50$28K−4.0% of holding+6.1%−5.6%145,641Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-14CROWLEY TIMOTHY AMBROSEofficerSale4,763 @ $4.50$21K−3.5% of holding+6.1%−5.6%132,714Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-14BARNUM AUBREEofficerSale4,763 @ $4.50$21K−6.7% of holding+6.1%−5.6%66,373Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-16GERSPACHER RICHARDofficerSale61,198 @ $6.78$415K−44.1% of holding−41.4%−40.5%77,691Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-16GERSPACHER RICHARDofficerSale2,000 @ $7.18$14K−1.4% of holding−41.4%−40.5%138,889Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-01ZAWADZKI ALEXI ILLYAofficerSale353,914 @ $9.48$3.4M−89.8% of holding−21.9%−41.3%40,005Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-01ZAWADZKI ALEXI ILLYAofficerPurchase20,000 @ $9.58$192K+50.0% of holding−21.9%−41.3%60,005Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-05BROWN MICHAEL JOHNdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $2.84$3K+19.2% of holding+182.5%+57.1%6,201Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-19BROWN MICHAEL JOHNdirectorPurchase100 @ $2.81$282+2.0% of holding−7.1%+64.1%5,201Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-17GRANDY EDWARDofficerSale23 @ $2.68$62−0.0% of holding−7.0%+132.2%151,155Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-03BROWN MICHAEL JOHNdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $2.71$3K+24.4% of holding+3.9%+187.1%5,101Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

190 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-06BROWN MICHAEL JOHNdirectorAward / grant12,312129,218Form 4
2026-07-06MONTGOMERY PHILIPdirectorAward / grant8,10081,474Form 4
2026-07-06Walker Clayton D.directorAward / grant6,9006,900Form 4
2026-07-06GAO YUANdirectorAward / grant10,368147,819Form 4
2026-06-26MONTGOMERY PHILIPdirectorOption exercise19,34838,697Form 4
2026-06-26MONTGOMERY PHILIPdirectorOption exercise19,34819,348Form 4
2026-06-26MONTGOMERY PHILIPdirectorOption exercise19,34819,348Form 4
2026-06-15GRANDY EDWARDofficerWithheld for tax15173,307Form 4
2026-04-13GAO YUANdirectorAward / grant10,137137,451Form 4
2026-04-13BROWN MICHAEL JOHNdirectorAward / grant12,038116,906Form 4
2026-04-13MONTGOMERY PHILIPdirectorAward / grant7,91973,374Form 4
2026-04-13MAGIE JINHEEdirectorAward / grant7,91986,031Form 4
2026-04-10Evans Jonathan DaviddirectorWithheld for tax85,296781,445Form 4
2026-04-10DUSHNISKY KELVIN PAUL MICHAELdirectorWithheld for tax42,040210,504Form 4
2026-04-10GERSPACHER RICHARDofficerWithheld for tax37,267146,838Form 4
2026-04-10ZAWADZKI ALEXI ILLYAofficerWithheld for tax27,80696,233Form 4
2026-04-10COLTON LUKEofficerWithheld for tax26,45250,285Form 4
2026-04-10GRANDY EDWARDofficerWithheld for tax25,590173,322Form 4
2026-04-10BARNUM AUBREEofficerWithheld for tax17,27899,094Form 4
2026-04-10RUSSELL-SMITH ROBERTofficerWithheld for tax2,3791,844Form 4
2026-04-10COLTON LUKEofficerOption exercise39,18376,737Form 4
2026-04-10BARNUM AUBREEofficerOption exercise15,67331,347Form 4
2026-04-10Evans Jonathan DaviddirectorOption exercise97,897866,741Form 4
2026-04-10GERSPACHER RICHARDofficerOption exercise34,239184,105Form 4
2026-04-10COLTON LUKEofficerAward / grant39,18378,367Form 4
2026-04-10Evans Jonathan DaviddirectorOption exercise97,897195,795Form 4
2026-04-10ZAWADZKI ALEXI ILLYAofficerOption exercise17,71235,424Form 4
2026-04-10CROWLEY TIMOTHY AMBROSEofficerOption exercise15,67331,347Form 4
2026-04-10GRANDY EDWARDofficerOption exercise21,21842,435Form 4
2026-04-10CROWLEY TIMOTHY AMBROSEofficerOption exercise15,673181,011Form 4
2026-04-10GRANDY EDWARDofficerOption exercise21,218198,912Form 4
2026-04-10BARNUM AUBREEofficerOption exercise15,673116,372Form 4
2026-04-10CROWLEY TIMOTHY AMBROSEofficerOption exercise15,673181,011Form 4
2026-04-10GRANDY EDWARDofficerOption exercise21,218198,912Form 4
2026-04-10ZAWADZKI ALEXI ILLYAofficerOption exercise17,712124,039Form 4
2026-04-10ZAWADZKI ALEXI ILLYAofficerOption exercise17,712124,039Form 4
2026-04-10BARNUM AUBREEofficerOption exercise15,673116,372Form 4
2026-02-12Evans Jonathan DaviddirectorWithheld for tax23,238686,672Form 4
2026-02-12GERSPACHER RICHARDofficerWithheld for tax11,742149,866Form 4
2026-02-12ZAWADZKI ALEXI ILLYAofficerWithheld for tax9,943106,327Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.