Issued 2026-09-16 at $108.79 · now $108.79 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, L has typically landed between $101.86 and $117.17 — a range of −6.4% to +7.7% from the issuance price $108.79.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($108.79) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where L has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $108.79 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $108.79 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $110.6 (+1.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $107.7–$113.51
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $101.86–$117.17
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −44.5% | −44.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −41.9% | −41.9% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-26 | −40.3% | −40.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-11 | +33.6% | +0.0% | +33.6% |
| 2008-11-20 | +33.4% | +0.0% | +45.5% |
| 2020-05-06 | +32.0% | −2.9% | +32.0% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$131.33
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$128.60
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$108.79
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Robusto Dino | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $104.74 | $524K | +95.5% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,235 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Robusto Dino | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $105.44 | $527K | +2127.7% of holding | −5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,235 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-12 | TISCH ANDREW H | other | Sale | 24,801 @ $108.67 | $2.7M | −0.2% of holding | −1.6% | −15.0% | 12,430,599 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | TISCH ANDREW H | other | Sale | 24,801 @ $108.67 | $2.7M | −0.2% of holding | −1.6% | −15.0% | 12,455,599 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | TISCH ANDREW H | other | Sale | 199 @ $109.44 | $22K | −0.0% of holding | −1.6% | −15.0% | 12,430,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | TISCH ANDREW H | other | Sale | 199 @ $109.44 | $22K | −0.0% of holding | −1.6% | −15.0% | 12,455,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | TISCH ANDREW H | other | Sale | 50,000 @ $108.81 | $5.4M | −0.4% of holding | −0.1% | −12.3% | 12,480,400 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | SCHWARTZ MARK S | officer | Sale | 3,150 @ $110.00 | $347K | −20.7% of holding | −0.7% | −11.2% | 12,080 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | TISCH ANDREW H | other | Sale | 50,000 @ $108.87 | $5.4M | −0.4% of holding | +1.5% | −10.6% | 12,809,642 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | TISCH ANDREW H | other | Sale | 50,000 @ $110.27 | $5.5M | −0.4% of holding | +0.5% | −11.8% | 12,859,642 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Alpert Marc A | officer | Sale | 2,878 @ $109.75 | $316K | −14.5% of holding | +2.4% | −9.2% | 16,942 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | BERMAN ANN E | director | Sale | 1,922 @ $110.16 | $212K | −27.8% of holding | +2.4% | −9.2% | 4,998 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Alpert Marc A | officer | Sale | 617 @ $110.41 | $68K | −3.6% of holding | +2.4% | −9.2% | 16,325 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | TISCH ANDREW H | other | Sale | 50,000 @ $105.07 | $5.3M | −0.4% of holding | −4.1% | −7.2% | 12,909,642 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | SCOTT RICHARD WALDO | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $104.74 | $105K | −2.9% of holding | −2.8% | −6.6% | 32,901 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | TISCH ANDREW H | other | Sale | 23,485 @ $104.62 | $2.5M | −0.2% of holding | −0.7% | −7.1% | 12,966,157 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | TISCH ANDREW H | other | Sale | 6,515 @ $105.48 | $687K | −0.1% of holding | −0.7% | −7.1% | 12,959,642 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | TISCH ANDREW H | other | Sale | 20,000 @ $105.57 | $2.1M | −0.2% of holding | −0.9% | −6.6% | 12,989,642 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | TISCH ANDREW H | other | Sale | 10,000 @ $105.57 | $1.1M | −0.1% of holding | −0.9% | −6.6% | 13,009,642 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-01 | TISCH ANDREW H | other | Sale | 24,009 @ $106.61 | $2.6M | −0.2% of holding | −1.6% | −13.2% | 13,035,633 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | TISCH ANDREW H | other | Sale | 15,991 @ $107.71 | $1.7M | −0.1% of holding | −1.6% | −13.2% | 13,019,642 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | BERMAN ANN E | director | Sale | 1,444 @ $108.10 | $156K | −17.8% of holding | −1.6% | −13.2% | 6,686 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | FRIBOURG PAUL J | director | Sale | 1,442 @ $108.13 | $156K | −78.3% of holding | −1.6% | −13.2% | 400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | DIKER CHARLES M | director | Sale | 1,442 @ $107.93 | $156K | −6.3% of holding | −1.6% | −13.2% | 21,594 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | HARRIS WALTER L | director | Sale | 1,442 @ $107.88 | $156K | −5.5% of holding | −1.6% | −13.2% | 24,594 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | DIKER CHARLES M | director | Sale | 1,422 @ $96.76 | $138K | −6.2% of holding | −0.6% | +8.4% | 21,343 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | FRIBOURG PAUL J | director | Sale | 1,422 @ $96.69 | $137K | −90.5% of holding | −0.6% | +8.4% | 149 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | BERMAN ANN E | director | Sale | 1,422 @ $96.67 | $137K | −18.1% of holding | −0.6% | +8.4% | 6,435 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | HARRIS WALTER L | director | Sale | 1,421 @ $96.69 | $137K | −5.5% of holding | −0.6% | +8.4% | 24,343 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | FRIBOURG PAUL J | director | Sale | 1,273 @ $88.82 | $113K | −100.0% of holding | −2.1% | +3.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-02 | HARRIS WALTER L | director | Sale | 1,274 @ $88.82 | $113K | −5.0% of holding | −3.1% | +3.4% | 24,194 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | BERMAN ANN E | director | Sale | 1,273 @ $88.82 | $113K | −16.8% of holding | −3.1% | +3.4% | 6,286 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | DIKER CHARLES M | director | Sale | 1,274 @ $88.37 | $113K | −5.7% of holding | −3.1% | +3.4% | 21,194 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | SCOTT RICHARD WALDO | officer | Sale | 9,019 @ $87.92 | $793K | −21.0% of holding | −5.6% | −3.6% | 33,901 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | TISCH JONATHAN M | other | Sale | 17,483 @ $85.73 | $1.5M | −0.3% of holding | +3.8% | −5.8% | 6,688,046 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | TISCH JONATHAN M | other | Sale | 17,483 @ $85.73 | $1.5M | −0.3% of holding | +3.8% | −5.8% | 6,670,563 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | TISCH JONATHAN M | other | Sale | 7,517 @ $86.11 | $647K | −0.1% of holding | +3.8% | −5.8% | 6,655,529 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | TISCH JONATHAN M | other | Sale | 7,517 @ $86.11 | $647K | −0.1% of holding | +3.8% | −5.8% | 6,663,046 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | TISCH JONATHAN M | other | Sale | 23,818 @ $84.88 | $2.0M | −0.4% of holding | +2.8% | −4.5% | 6,729,347 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-13 | TISCH JONATHAN M | other | Sale | 23,818 @ $84.88 | $2.0M | −0.4% of holding | +2.8% | −4.5% | 6,705,529 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-12 | TISCH JONATHAN M | other | Sale | 1,182 @ $84.52 | $100K | −0.0% of holding | +6.3% | −1.5% | 6,754,347 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | TISCH JONATHAN M | other | Sale | 1,182 @ $84.52 | $100K | −0.0% of holding | +6.3% | −1.5% | 6,753,165 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | TISCH JONATHAN M | other | Sale | 25,000 @ $84.66 | $2.1M | −0.4% of holding | +3.2% | −4.1% | 6,755,529 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | TISCH JONATHAN M | other | Sale | 25,000 @ $84.66 | $2.1M | −0.4% of holding | +3.2% | −4.1% | 6,780,529 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | TISCH JONATHAN M | other | Sale | 45,353 @ $85.04 | $3.9M | −0.7% of holding | +7.1% | −3.6% | 6,814,823 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-10 | TISCH JONATHAN M | other | Sale | 45,353 @ $85.04 | $3.9M | −0.7% of holding | +7.1% | −3.6% | 6,860,176 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-10 | TISCH JONATHAN M | other | Sale | 4,647 @ $85.84 | $399K | −0.1% of holding | +7.1% | −3.6% | 6,810,176 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-10 | TISCH JONATHAN M | other | Sale | 4,647 @ $85.84 | $399K | −0.1% of holding | +7.1% | −3.6% | 6,805,529 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-07 | TISCH JONATHAN M | other | Sale | 25,000 @ $85.33 | $2.1M | −0.4% of holding | +6.9% | −0.7% | 6,930,529 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | TISCH JONATHAN M | other | Sale | 25,000 @ $85.33 | $2.1M | −0.4% of holding | +6.9% | −0.7% | 6,905,529 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | TISCH JONATHAN M | other | Sale | 25,000 @ $84.78 | $2.1M | −0.4% of holding | +9.4% | +0.3% | 6,980,529 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | TISCH JONATHAN M | other | Sale | 25,000 @ $84.78 | $2.1M | −0.4% of holding | +9.4% | +0.3% | 6,955,529 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | TISCH JONATHAN M | other | Sale | 16,359 @ $87.07 | $1.4M | −0.2% of holding | +9.3% | +0.2% | 7,022,811 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | TISCH JONATHAN M | other | Sale | 16,359 @ $87.07 | $1.4M | −0.2% of holding | +9.3% | +0.2% | 7,039,170 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | TISCH JONATHAN M | other | Sale | 8,641 @ $87.53 | $756K | −0.1% of holding | +9.3% | +0.2% | 7,005,529 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | TISCH JONATHAN M | other | Sale | 8,641 @ $87.53 | $756K | −0.1% of holding | +9.3% | +0.2% | 7,014,170 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | BERMAN ANN E | director | Sale | 1,197 @ $86.90 | $104K | −19.3% of holding | +9.3% | +0.2% | 4,998 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | FRIBOURG PAUL J | director | Sale | 1,197 @ $86.89 | $104K | −100.0% of holding | +9.3% | +0.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | WELTERS ANTHONY | director | Sale | 1,197 @ $86.87 | $104K | −10.8% of holding | +9.3% | +0.2% | 9,845 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | HARRIS WALTER L | director | Sale | 1,197 @ $86.87 | $104K | −5.0% of holding | +9.3% | +0.2% | 22,906 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
229 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | TISCH ANDREW H | other | Code W | 924,000 | 13,069,487 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | TISCH JAMES S | director | Code W | 1,150,000 | 12,009,192 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | DAVIDSON CHARLES D | director | Award / grant | 223 | 29,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | HARRIS WALTER L | director | Award / grant | 223 | 25,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | TISCH JAMES S | director | Award / grant | 223 | 1,873,521 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Robusto Dino | director | Award / grant | 223 | 10,458 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Peters Susan | director | Award / grant | 223 | 3,051 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Locker Jonathan C | director | Award / grant | 223 | 25,448 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | VanBelle Jennifer | director | Award / grant | 223 | 848 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | FRIBOURG PAUL J | director | Award / grant | 223 | 1,092 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | DIKER CHARLES M | director | Award / grant | 102 | 22,165 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | TISCH JAMES S | director | Other acquisition | 21,121 | 9,838,071 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | TISCH JAMES S | director | Other acquisition | 21,121 | 9,859,192 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Tisch Benjamin J | director | Other acquisition | 21,121 | 688,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Tisch Benjamin J | director | Other acquisition | 21,121 | 667,104 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | VanBelle Jennifer | director | Award / grant | 235 | 625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | DIKER CHARLES M | director | Award / grant | 235 | 22,063 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | TISCH JAMES S | director | Award / grant | 235 | 2,873,298 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | FRIBOURG PAUL J | director | Award / grant | 235 | 869 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | DAVIDSON CHARLES D | director | Award / grant | 235 | 29,063 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | HARRIS WALTER L | director | Award / grant | 235 | 25,063 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Robusto Dino | director | Award / grant | 235 | 235 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | BERMAN ANN E | director | Award / grant | 235 | 5,233 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Peters Susan | director | Award / grant | 235 | 2,828 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Locker Jonathan C | director | Award / grant | 235 | 25,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | TISCH JONATHAN M | other | Gift | 100,000 | 6,455,529 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | SCHWARTZ MARK S | officer | Award / grant | 4,546 | 4,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Alpert Marc A | officer | Award / grant | 9,502 | 9,502 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Wang Jane J. | officer | Award / grant | 9,502 | 9,502 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Czerniecki David | officer | Award / grant | 8,311 | 8,311 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | SIEGEL KENNETH I | director | Award / grant | 9,502 | 9,502 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Tisch Benjamin J | director | Award / grant | 10,690 | 10,690 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Tisch Alexander H | officer | Award / grant | 10,690 | 10,690 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | SIEGEL KENNETH I | director | Withheld for tax | 3,112 | 14,321 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Alpert Marc A | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,112 | 19,820 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Wang Jane J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,112 | 19,042 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | SCHWARTZ MARK S | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,979 | 15,230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Wang Jane J. | officer | Option exercise | 6,607 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | SIEGEL KENNETH I | director | Option exercise | 6,607 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Wang Jane J. | officer | Option exercise | 6,607 | 22,154 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-13 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-31 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-17 | $1–15K |
| James French Hill | House | purchase | 2025-07-24 | 2025-06-23 | $50–100K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-11-08 | 2024-10-11 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-11-08 | 2024-10-14 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-09-06 | 2024-08-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-09-06 | 2024-08-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-06-05 | 2024-05-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2023-07-11 | 2023-06-29 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.