KYTXKyverna Therapeutics, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.90 · now $6.90 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KYTX has typically landed between $4.61 and $10.05 — a range of −33.1% to +45.7% from the issuance price $6.90.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

632 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-02-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.90) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where KYTX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.9 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$4.61worst · -33.1%$10.05best · +45.7%
  • now $6.9 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.58 (-4.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.58–$7.58
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.61–$10.05
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 632 windows spanning 2024-02-08 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2024-05-17−51.8%−51.8%+0.0%
2024-04-09−48.5%−48.5%+0.3%
2024-05-16−48.3%−48.3%+1.1%
3 best
2025-09-16+87.6%+0.0%+87.6%
2025-08-21+82.1%+0.0%+82.1%
2025-09-12+76.8%−1.3%+83.2%

632 overlapping windows · 2024-02-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
0%
−14.1%
n=2
Feb
50%
−4.9%
n=2
Mar
33%
−11.8%
n=3
Apr
67%
−5.8%
n=3
May
33%
−3.3%
n=3
Jun
67%
−5.1%
n=3
Jul
67%
+4.6%
n=3
Aug
67%
+4.3%
n=3
Sep
33%
+1.3%
n=3
Oct
50%
+7.0%
n=2
Nov
100%
+15.4%
n=2
Dec
50%
−6.3%
n=2

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$11$32025-12-18: 2 insider purchases, $2.0M — SEIDENBERG BETH C, Westlake BioPartners Opportunity Fund I, L.P.2025-12-15: 1 insider sale, $293K — Walker Karen Marie2025-12: 2 open-market purchases, $2.0M2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $293K↑ buys↓ salesdirector SEIDENBERG BETH C — Purchase on 2025-12-18, filed 4 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Westlake BioPartners Opportunity Fund I, L.P. — Purchase on 2025-12-18, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Walker Karen Marie — Sale on 2025-12-15, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-12-18SEIDENBERG BETH CdirectorPurchase133,333 @ $7.50$1000K+18.1% of holding+33.8%+11.1%869,317Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-18Westlake BioPartners Opportunity Fund I, L.P.tenPercentOwnerPurchase133,333 @ $7.50$1000K+18.1% of holding+33.8%+11.1%869,317Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-15Walker Karen MarieofficerSale23,998 @ $12.20$293K−51.5% of holding−21.4%−35.2%22,636Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

47 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-27Shaw ChristidirectorWithheld for tax4,19466,741Form 4
2026-05-27Aktar MertdirectorAward / grant20,58220,582Form 4
2026-05-27CLARK IAN TdirectorAward / grant5,09321,727Form 4
2026-05-27CLARK IAN TdirectorAward / grant20,58220,582Form 4
2026-05-27Cohen Fred EdirectorAward / grant5,09321,727Form 4
2026-05-27Cohen Fred EdirectorAward / grant20,58220,582Form 4
2026-05-27SEIDENBERG BETH CdirectorAward / grant5,09321,727Form 4
2026-05-27SEIDENBERG BETH CdirectorAward / grant20,58220,582Form 4
2026-05-27Aktar MertdirectorAward / grant5,09321,727Form 4
2026-05-18Martini Gregory S.officerAward / grant325,000325,000Form 4
2026-05-04Dac NadiaofficerAward / grant300,000300,000Form 4
2026-03-13GEHCHAN NAJIofficerAward / grant105,000105,000Form 4
2026-03-13Biddle Warner WestondirectorAward / grant58,00058,000Form 4
2026-03-13Biddle Warner WestondirectorAward / grant350,000350,000Form 4
2026-03-13GRASSO MARCofficerAward / grant10,00010,000Form 4
2026-03-13GRASSO MARCofficerAward / grant65,00065,000Form 4
2026-03-13GEHCHAN NAJIofficerAward / grant18,00018,000Form 4
2026-02-24Emany Sravan KumardirectorAward / grant11,00611,006Form 4
2026-02-24Emany Sravan KumardirectorAward / grant42,94542,945Form 4
2026-02-24Miller Andrew CraigdirectorAward / grant11,00611,006Form 4
2026-02-24Miller Andrew CraigdirectorAward / grant42,94542,945Form 4
2026-02-09Pujols MayobanexofficerAward / grant300,000300,000Form 4
2026-01-12Shaw ChristidirectorAward / grant24,30170,935Form 4
2026-01-12Shaw ChristidirectorAward / grant30,00046,634Form 4
2026-01-12Shaw ChristidirectorAward / grant185,000185,000Form 4
2025-12-15Walker Karen MarieofficerOption exercise23,99846,634Form 4
2025-12-15Walker Karen MarieofficerOption exercise23,99885,865Form 4
2025-06-30GRASSO MARCofficerAward / grant450,000450,000Form 4
2025-05-29SPIEGELMAN DANIEL KdirectorAward / grant65,35165,351Form 4
2025-05-29Shaw ChristidirectorAward / grant65,35165,351Form 4
2025-05-29Cohen Fred EdirectorAward / grant65,35165,351Form 4
2025-05-29Cohen Fred EdirectorAward / grant16,63416,634Form 4
2025-05-29CLARK IAN TdirectorAward / grant16,63416,634Form 4
2025-05-29CLARK IAN TdirectorAward / grant65,35165,351Form 4
2025-05-29Shaw ChristidirectorAward / grant16,63416,634Form 4
2025-05-29Aktar MertdirectorAward / grant16,63416,634Form 4
2025-05-29Aktar MertdirectorAward / grant65,35165,351Form 4
2025-05-29SEIDENBERG BETH CdirectorAward / grant16,63416,634Form 4
2025-05-29SEIDENBERG BETH CdirectorAward / grant65,35165,351Form 4
2025-05-29SPIEGELMAN DANIEL KdirectorAward / grant16,63416,634Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.