Issued 2026-09-16 at $16.23 · now $16.23 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KVYO has typically landed between $12.22 and $20.27 — a range of −24.7% to +24.9% from the issuance price $16.23.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
729 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-09-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($16.23) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where KVYO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $16.23 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $16.23 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $16.15 (-0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $14.54–$17.75
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $12.22–$20.27
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 729 windows spanning 2023-09-20 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-01-22 | −39.9% | −39.9% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-07 | −35.6% | −36.6% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-06 | −35.1% | −35.1% | +2.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-04-11 | +38.4% | −9.8% | +38.4% |
| 2025-04-21 | +37.9% | −0.9% | +52.0% |
| 2024-08-06 | +37.5% | +0.0% | +47.4% |
729 overlapping windows · 2023-09-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
−9.0%
n=3
Feb
33%
−11.2%
n=3
Mar
33%
−5.0%
n=3
Apr
67%
−2.8%
n=3
May
67%
−2.8%
n=3
Jun
33%
+1.3%
n=3
Jul
67%
+5.3%
n=3
Aug
100%
+13.2%
n=3
Sep
33%
−7.8%
n=3
Oct
33%
−5.3%
n=3
Nov
67%
+3.8%
n=3
Dec
67%
+6.2%
n=3
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | St. Ledger Susan | director | Sale | 2,328 @ $15.93 | $37K | −9.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,433 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Hallen Ed | director | Sale | 59,615 @ $20.49 | $1.2M | −11.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 465,631 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Hallen Ed | director | Sale | 39,167 @ $20.47 | $802K | −29.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 94,457 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Edmond Landon | officer | Sale | 8,103 @ $20.44 | $166K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 477,866 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Edmond Landon | officer | Sale | 53,473 @ $20.01 | $1.1M | −9.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 485,969 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Whalen Amanda | director | Sale | 14,000 @ $18.47 | $259K | −1.7% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 824,192 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,000,000 @ $17.71 | $88.5M | −100.0% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Whalen Amanda | director | Sale | 14,000 @ $17.75 | $249K | −1.6% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 838,192 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Whalen Amanda | director | Sale | 14,000 @ $13.23 | $185K | −1.6% of holding | +31.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 852,192 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-26 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 212,529 @ $14.61 | $3.1M | −100.0% of holding | −1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $14.88 | $3.0M | −100.0% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | St. Ledger Susan | director | Sale | 9,334 @ $14.27 | $133K | −46.0% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,939 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Whalen Amanda | director | Sale | 14,000 @ $14.26 | $200K | −1.5% of holding | −3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 895,141 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 141,316 @ $14.46 | $2.0M | −100.0% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 58,684 @ $14.97 | $878K | −29.3% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 141,316 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Edmond Landon | officer | Sale | 9,623 @ $20.00 | $192K | −1.6% of holding | −30.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 584,124 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Whalen Amanda | director | Sale | 14,000 @ $18.54 | $260K | −1.5% of holding | −27.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 895,141 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 109,142 @ $17.39 | $1.9M | −54.6% of holding | −22.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 90,858 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 90,858 @ $16.94 | $1.5M | −100.0% of holding | −22.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $18.63 | $3.7M | −100.0% of holding | −26.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $19.42 | $3.9M | −100.0% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $18.17 | $3.6M | −100.0% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 102,621 @ $19.15 | $2.0M | −100.0% of holding | −8.7% | −28.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 97,379 @ $19.60 | $1.9M | −48.7% of holding | −8.7% | −28.1% | 102,621 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Edmond Landon | officer | Sale | 14,366 @ $20.15 | $289K | −4.4% of holding | −12.0% | −30.5% | 312,362 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Whalen Amanda | director | Sale | 8,923 @ $19.72 | $176K | −2.1% of holding | −12.0% | −30.5% | 417,502 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Whalen Amanda | director | Sale | 5,077 @ $19.34 | $98K | −1.2% of holding | −12.0% | −30.5% | 412,425 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 206,127 @ $19.96 | $4.1M | −99.7% of holding | −12.2% | −32.2% | 700 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 700 @ $19.34 | $14K | −100.0% of holding | −12.2% | −32.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Edmond Landon | officer | Sale | 15,093 @ $20.16 | $304K | −4.4% of holding | −6.3% | −20.8% | 326,728 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 154,022 @ $18.86 | $2.9M | −77.0% of holding | +6.4% | −3.2% | 45,978 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 45,978 @ $17.90 | $823K | −100.0% of holding | +6.4% | −3.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 160,356 @ $16.86 | $2.7M | −80.2% of holding | +12.8% | −6.7% | 39,644 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 39,644 @ $16.38 | $649K | −100.0% of holding | +12.8% | −6.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Whalen Amanda | director | Sale | 9,281 @ $19.01 | $176K | −2.0% of holding | +4.4% | −19.6% | 446,938 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Whalen Amanda | director | Sale | 4,719 @ $18.63 | $88K | −1.1% of holding | +4.4% | −19.6% | 442,219 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Ceran Jennifer | director | Purchase | 16,339 @ $18.38 | $300K | +113.8% of holding | +5.5% | −14.7% | 30,691 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 150,689 @ $25.34 | $3.8M | −97.1% of holding | −26.4% | −29.2% | 4,530 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 4,530 @ $24.94 | $113K | −100.0% of holding | −26.4% | −29.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 167,130 @ $24.16 | $4.0M | −99.5% of holding | −26.1% | −44.0% | 796 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 796 @ $23.29 | $19K | −100.0% of holding | −26.1% | −44.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Whalen Amanda | director | Sale | 7,826 @ $26.08 | $204K | −1.7% of holding | −29.2% | −36.9% | 448,393 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Whalen Amanda | director | Sale | 6,174 @ $25.52 | $158K | −1.4% of holding | −29.2% | −36.9% | 442,219 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Edmond Landon | officer | Sale | 5,601 @ $26.08 | $146K | −1.6% of holding | −29.2% | −36.9% | 348,281 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Edmond Landon | officer | Sale | 4,399 @ $25.52 | $112K | −1.3% of holding | −29.2% | −36.9% | 343,882 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 90,327 @ $27.29 | $2.5M | −100.0% of holding | −30.0% | −43.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 50,319 @ $27.62 | $1.4M | −35.8% of holding | −30.0% | −43.1% | 90,327 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 16,649 @ $30.01 | $500K | −100.0% of holding | −35.8% | −53.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 135,122 @ $28.92 | $3.9M | −98.3% of holding | −33.0% | −50.1% | 2,382 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 2,382 @ $28.52 | $68K | −100.0% of holding | −33.0% | −50.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 93,066 @ $33.05 | $3.1M | −93.1% of holding | −23.6% | −65.6% | 6,934 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 6,934 @ $31.94 | $221K | −100.0% of holding | −23.6% | −65.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Edmond Landon | officer | Sale | 13,718 @ $31.41 | $431K | −3.7% of holding | −21.5% | −66.5% | 354,354 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Whalen Amanda | director | Sale | 13,540 @ $31.41 | $425K | −2.9% of holding | −21.5% | −66.5% | 452,634 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Edmond Landon | officer | Sale | 472 @ $30.55 | $14K | −0.1% of holding | −21.5% | −66.5% | 353,882 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Whalen Amanda | director | Sale | 460 @ $30.59 | $14K | −0.1% of holding | −21.5% | −66.5% | 452,174 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $30.40 | $3.0M | −100.0% of holding | −20.5% | −68.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-17 | Hallen Ed | director | Sale | 82,672 @ $30.37 | $2.5M | −13.6% of holding | −20.5% | −68.9% | 525,246 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Hallen Ed | director | Sale | 34,878 @ $30.35 | $1.1M | −20.7% of holding | −20.5% | −68.9% | 133,624 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Bialecki Andrew | director | Sale | 138,648 @ $29.04 | $4.0M | −100.0% of holding | −21.2% | −65.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
213 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Shopify Strategic Holdings 3 LLC | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 344,383 | 17,317,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Shopify Strategic Holdings 3 LLC | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 344,383 | 1,377,529 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Hallen Ed | director | Gift | 17,885 | 447,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Galvin Carmel | director | Withheld for tax | 30,541 | 907,458 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Fernandez Gomez Luciano | director | Withheld for tax | 29,133 | 2,301,573 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Whalen Amanda | director | Withheld for tax | 28,950 | 795,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Edmond Landon | officer | Withheld for tax | 22,342 | 539,442 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Fernandez Gomez Luciano | director | Conversion | 7,001 | 48,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Fernandez Gomez Luciano | director | Conversion | 7,001 | 2,330,706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Fernandez Gomez Luciano | director | Conversion | 7,001 | 2,330,706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Fernandez Gomez Luciano | director | Conversion | 7,001 | 2,330,706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Fernandez Gomez Luciano | director | Conversion | 7,001 | 2,330,706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 13,852,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 13,852,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 13,852,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 13,852,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 13,852,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 13,852,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 13,852,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 13,852,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 13,852,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 13,852,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 13,852,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 13,852,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 13,852,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 13,852,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SUMMIT PARTNERS L P | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.