KVUEKenvue Inc.Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Productsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $17.83 · now $17.83 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KVUE has typically landed between $15.87 and $19.73 — a range of −11.0% to +10.6% from the issuance price $17.83.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

824 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-05-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($17.83) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where KVUE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $17.83 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$15.87worst · -11.0%$19.73best · +10.6%
  • now $17.83 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $17.76 (-0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $16.82–$18.7
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $15.87–$19.73
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 824 windows spanning 2023-05-04 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-09-02−23.7%−23.7%+0.0%
2025-09-17−23.1%−23.1%+0.0%
2025-09-03−23.1%−23.1%+0.4%
3 best
2024-08-05+25.0%+0.0%+25.0%
2025-10-29+22.8%−0.5%+22.8%
2025-10-30+22.5%+0.0%+23.4%

824 overlapping windows · 2023-05-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$37.0B
market cap
$0.85
EPS (TTM)
22.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-06
next earnings
Revenue$15.1B
'20'25
Net income$1.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.7B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr9.7%
'20'25
ROE · by yr13.7%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.79
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 28 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $17.83$16.72$32.84
  • DCF (intrinsic)$31.72
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 24.4× · n=28$20.78
  • Analyst target · range $18.00–$20.00$18.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$17.83

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~4 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
33%
−1.0%
n=3
Feb
67%
+5.2%
n=3
Mar
67%
+1.6%
n=3
Apr
33%
−4.1%
n=3
May
67%
+1.8%
n=3
Jun
50%
−0.6%
n=4
Jul
75%
−1.4%
n=4
Aug
25%
+3.4%
n=4
Sep
25%
−8.7%
n=4
Oct
0%
−6.6%
n=3
Nov
100%
+13.1%
n=3
Dec
33%
−2.2%
n=3

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$21$142026-06-10: 1 insider sale, $67K — Howlett Heather2026-05-08: 1 insider sale, $680K — Orlando Matthew2025-12-12: 1 insider purchase, $55.6M — Smith Jeffrey C2025-12-11: 1 insider purchase, $55.4M — Smith Jeffrey C2025-12: 2 open-market purchases, $111.0M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $680K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $67K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Howlett Heather — Sale on 2026-06-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Orlando Matthew — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Smith Jeffrey C — Purchase on 2025-12-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Smith Jeffrey C — Purchase on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-10Howlett HeatherofficerSale3,700 @ $18.11$67K−11.2% of holding+3.0%not yet — horizon still open29,288Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-08Orlando MatthewofficerSale38,491 @ $17.66$680K−100.0% of holding+3.2%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-12Smith Jeffrey CdirectorPurchase3,200,000 @ $17.37$55.6M+13.3% of holding−2.7%−1.8%27,307,632Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-11Smith Jeffrey CdirectorPurchase3,177,694 @ $17.43$55.4M+15.2% of holding−2.7%−2.2%24,107,632Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-13Lawson CarltonofficerSale17,100 @ $23.03$394K−23.3% of holding−1.9%−36.5%56,316Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

295 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-31Dasgupta AnindyaofficerOption exercise16,41916,419Form 4
2026-07-31Dasgupta AnindyaofficerOption exercise16,41932,832Form 4
2026-06-29Smith Jeffrey CdirectorAward / grant1,41327,023Form 4
2026-06-29ALLISON RICHARD E JRdirectorAward / grant1,41349,798Form 4
2026-06-29Smith Jeffrey CdirectorAward / grant1,41327,023Form 4
2026-06-29ALLISON RICHARD E JRdirectorAward / grant1,41349,798Form 4
2026-05-21MERLO LARRY JdirectorAward / grant16,03656,975Form 4
2026-05-21PRABHU VASANT MdirectorAward / grant10,30936,627Form 4
2026-05-21ALLISON RICHARD E JRdirectorAward / grant10,30947,943Form 4
2026-05-21PAWLUS KATHLEEN MdirectorAward / grant10,30925,038Form 4
2026-05-21Sneed Michael EdirectorAward / grant10,30936,627Form 4
2026-05-21Godbole SeemantinidirectorAward / grant10,30936,627Form 4
2026-05-21HOLDEN BETSY DdirectorAward / grant10,30936,627Form 4
2026-05-21Healey MelaniedirectorAward / grant10,30936,627Form 4
2026-05-21Hofstetter SarahdirectorAward / grant10,30924,102Form 4
2026-05-21Smith Jeffrey CdirectorAward / grant10,30925,433Form 4
2026-05-21Mann Erica LdirectorAward / grant10,30919,986Form 4
2026-05-01Curado Gomes de Lemos LeonardoofficerWithheld for tax7,14117,107Form 4
2026-05-01Curado Gomes de Lemos LeonardoofficerOption exercise24,24848,491Form 4
2026-05-01Curado Gomes de Lemos LeonardoofficerOption exercise24,24824,248Form 4
2026-03-30ALLISON RICHARD E JRdirectorAward / grant1,33137,634Form 4
2026-03-30ALLISON RICHARD E JRdirectorAward / grant1,33137,634Form 4
2026-03-30Smith Jeffrey CdirectorAward / grant1,33115,124Form 4
2026-03-30Smith Jeffrey CdirectorAward / grant1,33115,124Form 4
2026-03-10Stevens MeredithofficerWithheld for tax1,73893,139Form 4
2026-03-10Alvarado LuaniofficerWithheld for tax1,72161,076Form 4
2026-03-10Stevens MeredithofficerWithheld for tax35893,621Form 4
2026-03-10Alvarado LuaniofficerWithheld for tax35761,415Form 4
2026-03-10Stevens MeredithofficerOption exercise84010,676Form 4
2026-03-10Stevens MeredithofficerOption exercise4,32994,877Form 4
2026-03-10Alvarado LuaniofficerOption exercise3,52562,797Form 4
2026-03-10Alvarado LuaniofficerOption exercise69761,772Form 4
2026-03-10Alvarado LuaniofficerOption exercise3,5259,390Form 4
2026-03-10Alvarado LuaniofficerOption exercise6978,693Form 4
2026-03-10Lawson CarltonofficerOption exercise6,158111,415Form 4
2026-03-10Lawson CarltonofficerOption exercise6,15812,314Form 4
2026-03-10Stevens MeredithofficerOption exercise84093,979Form 4
2026-03-10Stevens MeredithofficerOption exercise4,32911,516Form 4
2026-03-05Alvarado LuaniofficerWithheld for tax2,09459,271Form 4
2026-03-05Stevens MeredithofficerWithheld for tax1,67790,547Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-07-022026-06-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-04-072026-03-13$1–15K
Kevin HernHousesale2026-04-032026-03-17$15–50K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-10$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-02-132026-01-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousesale2026-01-132025-10-01$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousepurchase2026-01-132024-10-23$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-12-152025-11-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.