Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.20 · now $11.20 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KURA has typically landed between $8.68 and $14.49 — a range of −22.5% to +29.4% from the issuance price $11.20.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,744 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-09-16 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.20) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where KURA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.2 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $11.2 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $11.05 (-1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.83–$12.26
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.68–$14.49
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,744 windows spanning 2015-09-16 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2015-11-02 | −60.1% | −62.2% | +0.0% |
| 2016-01-08 | −53.3% | −53.3% | +1.6% |
| 2016-01-12 | −51.9% | −54.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2017-08-15 | +114.0% | +0.0% | +119.0% |
| 2017-08-14 | +108.7% | −4.7% | +108.7% |
| 2017-08-30 | +106.3% | −4.2% | +109.1% |
2,744 overlapping windows · 2015-09-16 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2028-10-16 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: First in Human Study of Ziftomenib in Relapsed or Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- November 2031 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Studies to Assess Ziftomenib in Combination With Ven+Aza or 7+3 in Patients With Untreated NPM1-m or KMT2A-r AML (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
55%
+0.2%
n=11
Feb
55%
+3.2%
n=11
Mar
55%
−3.3%
n=11
Apr
27%
−2.1%
n=11
May
55%
+2.8%
n=11
Jun
55%
+4.1%
n=11
Jul
45%
+1.8%
n=11
Aug
55%
+9.7%
n=11
Sep
45%
+10.0%
n=11
Oct
36%
−5.7%
n=11
Nov
73%
+0.1%
n=11
Dec
45%
+0.4%
n=11
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | WILSON TROY EDWARD | director | Purchase | 100,000 @ $12.39 | $1.2M | +26.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 479,194 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-21 | Powl Brian T. | officer | Sale | 4,345 @ $11.89 | $52K | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 169,269 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Bair Teresa Brophy | officer | Sale | 31,487 @ $12.63 | $398K | −13.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 195,444 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | WILSON TROY EDWARD | director | Purchase | 100,000 @ $11.12 | $1.1M | +35.8% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 379,194 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-18 | Leoni Mollie | officer | Sale | 84,929 @ $9.82 | $834K | −31.8% of holding | +9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 182,345 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Powl Brian T. | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $11.00 | $110K | −5.4% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 173,614 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | FORD KATHLEEN | officer | Sale | 2,257 @ $9.08 | $20K | −1.4% of holding | +8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 153,560 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Powl Brian T. | officer | Sale | 339 @ $9.21 | $3K | −0.2% of holding | +8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 183,614 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Bair Teresa Brophy | officer | Sale | 2,256 @ $9.38 | $21K | −1.0% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 226,931 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | Powl Brian T. | officer | Sale | 4,842 @ $8.46 | $41K | −2.6% of holding | +3.0% | −0.0% | 184,847 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-27 | Bair Teresa Brophy | officer | Sale | 4,777 @ $8.46 | $40K | −2.1% of holding | +3.0% | −0.0% | 226,931 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-27 | Bair Teresa Brophy | officer | Sale | 4,096 @ $8.46 | $35K | −1.7% of holding | +3.0% | −0.0% | 234,043 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-27 | Leoni Mollie | officer | Sale | 3,655 @ $8.46 | $31K | −1.3% of holding | +3.0% | −0.0% | 271,799 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-27 | Bair Teresa Brophy | officer | Sale | 2,335 @ $8.46 | $20K | −1.0% of holding | +3.0% | −0.0% | 231,708 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-27 | Leoni Mollie | officer | Sale | 2,233 @ $8.46 | $19K | −0.8% of holding | +3.0% | −0.0% | 269,566 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-27 | DOYLE THOMAS JAMES | officer | Sale | 2,226 @ $8.46 | $19K | −1.5% of holding | +3.0% | −0.0% | 146,048 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-27 | DOYLE THOMAS JAMES | officer | Sale | 2,226 @ $8.46 | $19K | −1.5% of holding | +3.0% | −0.0% | 150,083 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-27 | FORD KATHLEEN | officer | Sale | 1,813 @ $8.46 | $15K | −1.2% of holding | +3.0% | −0.0% | 153,560 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-27 | Powl Brian T. | officer | Sale | 1,572 @ $8.46 | $13K | −0.9% of holding | +3.0% | −0.0% | 183,275 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-27 | Leoni Mollie | officer | Sale | 1,341 @ $8.46 | $11K | −0.5% of holding | +3.0% | −0.0% | 267,274 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-27 | Burrows Francis | officer | Sale | 1,311 @ $8.46 | $11K | −3.9% of holding | +3.0% | −0.0% | 32,424 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-27 | DOYLE THOMAS JAMES | officer | Sale | 1,114 @ $8.46 | $9K | −0.7% of holding | +3.0% | −0.0% | 148,969 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-27 | Leoni Mollie | officer | Sale | 951 @ $8.46 | $8K | −0.4% of holding | +3.0% | −0.0% | 268,615 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-27 | DOYLE THOMAS JAMES | officer | Sale | 881 @ $8.46 | $7K | −0.6% of holding | +3.0% | −0.0% | 145,167 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-27 | DOYLE THOMAS JAMES | officer | Sale | 695 @ $8.46 | $6K | −0.5% of holding | +3.0% | −0.0% | 148,274 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-18 | Burrows Francis | officer | Sale | 23,726 @ $9.78 | $232K | −41.3% of holding | −13.1% | −4.0% | 33,735 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Hasnain Faheem | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $10.98 | $110K | −29.4% of holding | −13.7% | −25.6% | 23,983 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Leoni Mollie | officer | Sale | 15,485 @ $11.18 | $173K | −6.4% of holding | −6.2% | −29.9% | 225,454 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-14 | Powl Brian T. | officer | Sale | 8,887 @ $11.18 | $99K | −6.0% of holding | −6.2% | −29.9% | 139,689 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-14 | Bair Teresa Brophy | officer | Sale | 8,804 @ $11.18 | $98K | −4.5% of holding | −6.2% | −29.9% | 188,139 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-14 | FORD KATHLEEN | officer | Sale | 6,902 @ $11.18 | $77K | −6.1% of holding | −6.2% | −29.9% | 105,373 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-14 | DOYLE THOMAS JAMES | officer | Sale | 4,539 @ $11.18 | $51K | −3.4% of holding | −6.2% | −29.9% | 130,257 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-29 | WILSON TROY EDWARD | director | Sale | 36,615 @ $8.94 | $327K | −12.9% of holding | +13.6% | −7.9% | 246,853 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-29 | Leoni Mollie | officer | Sale | 12,314 @ $8.94 | $110K | −7.2% of holding | +13.6% | −7.9% | 158,439 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-29 | Powl Brian T. | officer | Sale | 8,891 @ $8.94 | $80K | −8.2% of holding | +13.6% | −7.9% | 99,676 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-29 | Bair Teresa Brophy | officer | Sale | 8,805 @ $8.94 | $79K | −5.6% of holding | +13.6% | −7.9% | 148,043 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-29 | FORD KATHLEEN | officer | Sale | 6,892 @ $8.94 | $62K | −9.8% of holding | +13.6% | −7.9% | 63,375 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-29 | DOYLE THOMAS JAMES | officer | Sale | 4,541 @ $8.94 | $41K | −4.0% of holding | +13.6% | −7.9% | 109,829 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-08 | WILSON TROY EDWARD | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $8.20 | $410K | +98.1% of holding | +12.4% | +8.8% | 100,968 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | WILSON TROY EDWARD | director | Purchase | 13,494 @ $6.64 | $90K | +36.0% of holding | +24.3% | +17.3% | 50,968 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | WILSON TROY EDWARD | director | Purchase | 36,506 @ $5.85 | $214K | +3771.3% of holding | +39.9% | +18.2% | 37,474 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | FORD KATHLEEN | officer | Sale | 1,558 @ $6.28 | $10K | −6.8% of holding | −3.3% | +61.3% | 21,367 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-19 | Bair Teresa Brophy | officer | Sale | 1,559 @ $5.96 | $9K | −1.4% of holding | −3.3% | +61.3% | 107,948 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-21 | Hasnain Faheem | director | Sale | 22,682 @ $8.00 | $181K | −48.6% of holding | −13.0% | −15.7% | 23,983 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-28 | Bair Teresa Brophy | officer | Sale | 4,844 @ $7.87 | $38K | −4.3% of holding | +1.7% | −24.5% | 107,948 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-28 | Bair Teresa Brophy | officer | Sale | 2,437 @ $7.87 | $19K | −2.1% of holding | +1.7% | −24.5% | 112,792 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-28 | Leoni Mollie | officer | Sale | 2,253 @ $7.87 | $18K | −2.4% of holding | +1.7% | −24.5% | 90,963 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-28 | DOYLE THOMAS JAMES | officer | Sale | 2,241 @ $7.87 | $18K | −2.4% of holding | +1.7% | −24.5% | 90,901 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-28 | FORD KATHLEEN | officer | Sale | 1,817 @ $7.87 | $14K | −7.8% of holding | +1.7% | −24.5% | 21,367 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-28 | Powl Brian T. | officer | Sale | 1,583 @ $7.87 | $12K | −2.6% of holding | +1.7% | −24.5% | 59,667 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-28 | Leoni Mollie | officer | Sale | 1,353 @ $7.87 | $11K | −1.5% of holding | +1.7% | −24.5% | 89,610 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-28 | Burrows Francis | officer | Sale | 1,320 @ $7.87 | $10K | −6.0% of holding | +1.7% | −24.5% | 20,705 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-28 | DOYLE THOMAS JAMES | officer | Sale | 1,122 @ $7.87 | $9K | −1.3% of holding | +1.7% | −24.5% | 88,193 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-28 | DOYLE THOMAS JAMES | officer | Sale | 887 @ $7.87 | $7K | −1.0% of holding | +1.7% | −24.5% | 90,014 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-28 | Burrows Francis | officer | Sale | 846 @ $7.87 | $7K | −3.7% of holding | +1.7% | −24.5% | 22,025 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-28 | Leoni Mollie | officer | Sale | 816 @ $7.87 | $6K | −0.9% of holding | +1.7% | −24.5% | 88,794 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-28 | DOYLE THOMAS JAMES | officer | Sale | 699 @ $7.87 | $6K | −0.8% of holding | +1.7% | −24.5% | 89,315 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-28 | Leoni Mollie | officer | Sale | 541 @ $7.87 | $4K | −0.6% of holding | +1.7% | −24.5% | 88,253 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
59 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Fulk Jennifer | officer | Award / grant | 450,000 | 450,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | SCHAFER CAROL | director | Award / grant | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | VASCONCELLES MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Parks Diane L. | director | Award / grant | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Malley Thomas | director | Award / grant | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Hasnain Faheem | director | Award / grant | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Szela Mary T | director | Award / grant | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Award / grant | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | WILSON TROY EDWARD | director | Option exercise | 6,103 | 435,456 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | WILSON TROY EDWARD | director | Option exercise | 6,103 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Malley Thomas | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Malley Thomas | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Bair Teresa Brophy | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Burrows Francis | officer | Award / grant | 185,000 | 185,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Powl Brian T. | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 189,689 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Powl Brian T. | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | FORD KATHLEEN | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 155,373 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | FORD KATHLEEN | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | DOYLE THOMAS JAMES | officer | Award / grant | 21,250 | 152,309 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | DOYLE THOMAS JAMES | officer | Award / grant | 42,500 | 42,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | WILSON TROY EDWARD | director | Award / grant | 1,120,000 | 1,120,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Leoni Mollie | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 275,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Leoni Mollie | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Bair Teresa Brophy | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 238,139 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Burrows Francis | officer | Option exercise | 35,000 | 57,461 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Burrows Francis | officer | Option exercise | 35,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | Hasnain Faheem | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 33,983 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-13 | DOYLE THOMAS JAMES | officer | Award / grant | 24,967 | 134,796 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-13 | Leoni Mollie | officer | Award / grant | 82,500 | 240,939 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-13 | Powl Brian T. | officer | Award / grant | 48,900 | 148,576 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-13 | FORD KATHLEEN | officer | Award / grant | 48,900 | 112,275 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-13 | WILSON TROY EDWARD | director | Award / grant | 182,500 | 429,353 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-13 | Bair Teresa Brophy | officer | Award / grant | 48,900 | 196,943 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-27 | DOYLE THOMAS JAMES | officer | Award / grant | 24,966 | 114,370 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-27 | FORD KATHLEEN | officer | Award / grant | 48,900 | 70,267 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-27 | Bair Teresa Brophy | officer | Award / grant | 48,900 | 156,848 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-27 | WILSON TROY EDWARD | director | Award / grant | 182,500 | 283,468 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-27 | Leoni Mollie | officer | Award / grant | 82,500 | 170,753 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-27 | Powl Brian T. | officer | Award / grant | 48,900 | 108,567 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Parks Diane L. | director | Award / grant | 28,500 | 28,500 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.