KTB · TickerCove

KTBKontoor Brands, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Manufacturersas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $68.37 · now $68.37 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KTB has typically landed between $57.93 and $81.64 — a range of −15.3% to +19.4% from the issuance price $68.37.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,828 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-05-09 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($68.37) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$68.37 · 37% of range

$56.63 low$88.17 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.6%

typical move · IQR 16.0%

−15.3%worst (p90)+19.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where KTB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $68.37 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $68.37 (+0.0%)
typical $68.78 (+0.6%)
middle 50% $63.33–$74.24
90% range $57.93–$81.64

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,828 windows spanning 2019-05-09 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-03-05	−56.9%	−56.9%	+2.7%
2020-03-04	−54.1%	−54.3%	+0.0%
2020-03-06	−54.1%	−58.0%	+0.0%
3 best
2025-08-01	+44.7%	+0.0%	+44.7%
2020-09-23	+43.6%	+0.0%	+43.6%
2020-09-30	+43.6%	+0.0%	+43.6%

1,828 overlapping windows · 2019-05-09 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

29%

−0.8%

n=7

Feb

71%

−0.6%

n=7

Mar

43%

−5.4%

n=7

Apr

57%

+3.0%

n=7

May

57%

−0.7%

n=7

Jun

38%

+0.5%

n=8

Jul

75%

+1.4%

n=8

Aug

75%

+9.4%

n=8

Sep

50%

−0.0%

n=8

Oct

100%

+9.8%

n=7

Nov

71%

+8.8%

n=7

Dec

29%

−0.4%

n=7

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-13	Baxter Scott H	director	Sale	116,872 @ $82.99	$9.7M	−26.2% of holding	−17.6%	not yet — horizon still open	329,317	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-13	Baxter Scott H	director	Sale	67,531 @ $84.09	$5.7M	−20.5% of holding	−17.6%	not yet — horizon still open	261,786	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-13	Doerr Thomas L Jr	director	Sale	7,660 @ $83.43	$639K	−23.4% of holding	−17.6%	not yet — horizon still open	25,063	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-12	Broyles Jennifer H.	director	Sale	4,000 @ $81.02	$324K	−9.0% of holding	+4.5%	not yet — horizon still open	40,261	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-10	ALKIRE JOSEPH A	officer	Sale	3,000 @ $72.35	$217K	−10.7% of holding	−5.5%	−17.6%	25,126	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

135 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-14	Kidd Peter A.	director	Withheld for tax	580	25,054	Form 4
2026-08-14	Baxter Scott H	director	Gift	56,160	210	Form 4
2026-08-14	Baxter Scott H	director	Award / grant	56,160	317,946	Form 4
2026-08-13	Baxter Scott H	director	Option exercise	184,403	446,189	Form 4
2026-08-13	Baxter Scott H	director	Option exercise	184,403	0	Form 4
2026-07-22	Waldron Thomas E.	director	Award / grant	1,471	87,020	Form 4
2026-07-02	SHEARER ROBERT K	director	Award / grant	618	41,507	Form 4
2026-07-02	Goldsmith Ashley	director	Award / grant	379	3,462	Form 4
2026-05-01	Stewart Shelley JR	director	Award / grant	2,236	26,440	Form 4
2026-05-01	CAMPBELL MARYELIZABETH R	director	Award / grant	2,236	7,700	Form 4
2026-05-01	SHEARER ROBERT K	director	Award / grant	2,586	54,438	Form 4
2026-05-01	Schiller Mark L.	director	Award / grant	2,236	17,720	Form 4
2026-04-02	Lynch Robert	director	Award / grant	723	9,270	Form 4
2026-04-02	SHEARER ROBERT K	director	Award / grant	723	40,581	Form 4
2026-04-02	Goldsmith Ashley	director	Award / grant	434	3,063	Form 4
2026-04-01	Baxter Scott H	director	Withheld for tax	7,899	275,140	Form 4
2026-04-01	Baxter Scott H	director	Withheld for tax	7,069	261,092	Form 4
2026-04-01	Baxter Scott H	director	Withheld for tax	6,979	268,161	Form 4
2026-04-01	ALKIRE JOSEPH A	officer	Withheld for tax	1,298	56,037	Form 4
2026-04-01	ALKIRE JOSEPH A	officer	Withheld for tax	1,193	54,844	Form 4
2026-04-01	Doerr Thomas L Jr	director	Withheld for tax	811	33,971	Form 4
2026-04-01	Broyles Jennifer H.	director	Withheld for tax	708	44,889	Form 4
2026-04-01	Doerr Thomas L Jr	director	Withheld for tax	698	33,273	Form 4
2026-04-01	Kidd Peter A.	director	Withheld for tax	641	26,066	Form 4
2026-04-01	Broyles Jennifer H.	director	Withheld for tax	628	44,261	Form 4
2026-04-01	Doerr Thomas L Jr	director	Withheld for tax	606	32,667	Form 4
2026-04-01	Kidd Peter A.	director	Withheld for tax	489	25,577	Form 4
2026-04-01	Kidd Peter A.	director	Withheld for tax	290	26,707	Form 4
2026-04-01	Broyles Jennifer H.	director	Withheld for tax	282	45,597	Form 4
2026-04-01	Sumner Susan Denise	director	Withheld for tax	124	12,293	Form 4
2026-04-01	Sumner Susan Denise	director	Withheld for tax	117	12,080	Form 4
2026-04-01	Sumner Susan Denise	director	Withheld for tax	96	12,197	Form 4
2026-04-01	Broyles Jennifer H.	director	Withheld for tax	81	6,790	Form 4
2026-04-01	Broyles Jennifer H.	director	Withheld for tax	76	6,651	Form 4
2026-04-01	Broyles Jennifer H.	director	Withheld for tax	63	6,727	Form 4
2026-04-01	Broyles Jennifer H.	director	Award / grant	8,666	45,879	Form 4
2026-04-01	Broyles Jennifer H.	director	Award / grant	1,011	6,871	Form 4
2026-04-01	Baxter Scott H	director	Award / grant	51,994	283,039	Form 4
2026-04-01	Kidd Peter A.	director	Award / grant	3,756	26,997	Form 4
2026-04-01	Doerr Thomas L Jr	director	Award / grant	4,333	34,782	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i